Brick Tamland

This is getting really scary. Hope she goes out to see, but looks like the tightest clusters from the model runs are between Charleston and Wilmington for landfall, and at least a cat 4 when it hits. This could be worse than Fran.

She is weakening, which means a better chance of heading more westward. The models are now showing it heading further west before turning north. The Euro, ICON, and CMC all show it hitting NC. Right now I would not bet it heading out to sea and not hitting the east coast.

Also, it's dead in here. 

4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Well, business is about to pick up in Haddonfield:

 

Can't wait to see this!

Man, it's crazy busy in here these days!

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

From @WorldClimateSvc - "The latest Environment Canada CanSIPS seasonal forecast is finally available. Much weaker El Niño now indicated: Dec-Feb Niño3.4 anomaly now only +0.67°C versus +1.08 last month."

 

Meanwhile, the Sept run of the Euro Seasonal has this as the 500mb mean for Dec-Feb:

On 9/3/2018 at 9:33 PM, jburns said:

This is obviously not Captain Obvious. 

This is Captain Obvious. 

I hope no one thought Flo's curving out to sea was set in stone yesterday. The models today are saying maybe not. Back and forth we go. Still a lot of time for more change.

Mowed the grass and worked in the yard for two hours this morning. It felt like a wet blanket was on my back. Nasty heat and humidity. If the rest of the month is going to be like this, I hope that was the last time I have to mow the lawn until spring.

Things are heating up for the tropics. Gordon coming in the Gulf, and too early to count out Flo. She coukd head out to sea or be a SE threat. Just have to keep watching. And looks like more threats are coming. The train is hooking up and about ready to leave the station. 

Winter is going to do what it's going to do here. We could have the nest pattern for snow and not get a flake. We could have the worst pattern and get a foot or more from one storm. 

I see tumbleweeds here. 

I still think the rain totals on the models for this week are overdone here. I know in winter everyone says cut the precip totals in half compared to what the models show. We just don't get widespread rain events here in summer. The rain mostly comes from storms and showers that are very scattered and isolated. 

1 hour ago, yoda said:

@nrgjeff

Mod risk... good luck!

Not looking forward to a whole week of rain. Talk about spoiling summer. 

Good luck, folks. Looks like you are really under the gun today. The tornadoes in Iowa yesterday weren't even expected.

Well, I think the general pattern looks good for storm threats between next week and the 15th. The signal is definitely there. 

Really digging how things look for Ferocious Fierce Fab February. Sounds like the fun really begins next week.

I'll take this all day.

GEFS had a strong storm signal for next week. The control and a couple of panels are some huge hits for here.

And I like how things are evolving and changing inside 7 days. That's how the last storm worked out, too.

47 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Bingo! Sad after 20 years , he still can't read a snow map!

Whatever. It's only been 7 years.

Euro played catch up with the last storm. 

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

A little more than that for the storm total. ****below includes ice, but still would be a significant storm as modeled.

Didn't realize that, just saw the snowfall map. That would be a good storm. Covers the whole state. 

Well, looks like the GFS wants to give me 2 inches of snow next Monday. Only 7 days out, so guess we'll see how it goes this week. Too far to the north now for me to be too excited about it. But at least we have something else to watch again.