Brick Tamland

9 minutes ago, CLTwx said:

Here you go ladies and Gents... Allan's thoughts. 

Love seeing that. This would be a major storm for most of NC.

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

What??  It's not rare at all for the models to show 6 inches of snow in Raleigh.

I am saying the totals they are showing rarely happen here. But it seems that is what most people are basing everything on in discounting the models. And if you have that attitude about what the models show, even when the majority of them have been showing the same thing the past two days, then I don't even get the point of looking at them. 

Euro, UK, and CMC all look good. Not sure why people are saying they are showing less snow. Looks pretty consistent to me. It seems folks just don't want to believe the models because what they are showing is rare here. 

So, really it's one NAM run that was bad, one GFS run that wasn't quite as good versus the UK, FV3, and Canadian that still look great today. 

FV3 singing some Tom Petty, I won't back down.

NAM was worse, GFS wasn't as good, and now the Canadian and FV3 are colder and snowier. I guess we get the model wars now. 

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

You are right...but what you're not understanding is that the models have been cooling the atmosphere from the top down as the precip and lift moves in. Perhaps the better discussion is if that scenario is plausible/likely. 

It would also be nice if people gave proof as to why the models are wrong, other factors they can actually show, instead of just saying climatology and it's rare to get a big winter storm here. 

2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. 

Yeah, Canadian was actually better compared to its previous runs. GFS still looked good for most of NC. That would still be a big storm for here. 

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

The Canadian 0z vs 12. Maybe some consistency?

 

Nice jump in totals from Raleigh to the Triad. 

Just now, Queencitywx said:

I will take that GFS run, gladly so. 

Seriously, for a storm so early in December, that is huge. That would be my snowfall average for winter. 

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Snow maps starting to look more realistic 

Still 5 to 8 for Wake. I'd gladly take that.

Well, maybe the models are doing a 180 today. Only waited about 60 hours out

6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Precip type on 12Z looks suspicious. 850s cold enough in WNC for snow during entire event. 

Looks like that NAM run might be a little off. 

Just now, FallsLake said:

Piedmont ice storm. You would be lucky with the sleet. The Triangle goes from snow to freezing rain. 

Either way, it would be a big winter storm here, even if it isn't snow. 

2 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Look at all the lemmings cliff jumping and climbing back up only to jump again with each successive model run.


.

Well, more room for me up here on the cliff with all the folks jumping after that one NAM run. 

If you know things are going to always turn out bad, I'm not sure why you even come on here until 24 hours out before a storm is supposed to hit.

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Warm nose, soil temps, lack of qpf due to convection along the coast...which one will ruin my weekend?  

If you're married and/or have kids, I'd bank on one of those. 

7 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

I think at this point you have to look at climatology and the past storms and I am sure that is what they are doing. There are many more cases of a warm nose busting these model totals than there are of them actually verifying. Not saying it cannot happen but they are just being ultra conservative probably from past experiences.

That is what I was wondering, if it was based on any other data they have right now, or if it is just based on what has happened in the past. 

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

They would have to do a complete 180 for what to happen?  All rain?  Not sure anyone is calling for that.  It’s hard for me to believe that you have been following the weather for as long as you have and have as much faith in 5 day snow maps as you do, regardless of their consistency.

3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

models will be consistently wrong if they don't have the warm nose modeled correctly. we have seen this time and time again. 

Okay, so where is the info that shows they could be wrong? What is the other info that RAH is basing their forecast on right now? What other data are they using besides the fact storms as big as the models are showing are rare here?

It been is just hard for me to ignore the consistency and agreement with the various models. I know what has happened in the past, but we also don't usually have this much consistency and agreement with the models. They would all have to be wrong or start to do a complete 180 now.

4 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

RAH’s uncertainty line has moved west overnight.

4:00 PM graphic on Wednesday

5:00 AM graphic on Thursday

Yet, all the models went farther east with snow. I would really like to know why they think it will be different.

13 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

looks like Allan Huffman is going all in on this.  RAH still on an island

What did he say?

15 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

The "too cute" comment caught my attention too.  I think RAH is taking the models with a grain of salt and, may, being/attempting to be "realistic".  12"+ before Xmas in north central NC is a little hard to believe, but I would expect more from the local NWS office than a snarky comment.  If the snow models are wrong, explain why.

That is what I am looking for, too. If you have some other reason or technology showing the models are wrong, then what is it? Just because it is rare to get a storm like the models show here and this early in December is not enough reason.

7 minutes ago, sarcean said:

It's basically RAH vs every model at this point. They will have to cave if these models keep it up  (atleast for the Triad) today or tomorrow or they risk it being too late too sound an alarm.

I understand they don't want their torecacts to busts but I don't remember a winter storm ever getting this general model concensus for this many days straight 

History also told us Florence should have went out to sea, and it the models were right.

Wow, looked like the GFS, Euro, FV3, and NAM all crushed NC last night from Raleigh westward. I don't think I have ever seen all the models do that before.