Brick Tamland

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Literally, the 18Z HRRR is snow from the Triad to RDU from roughly 1am to 10am. After 10, it transitions to sleet at RDU before rain around noon. It does bring sleet into the Triad by 11-noon,but by then 12 or more inches of snow has fallen. 

So, maybe 1 to 2 less hours of snow here. That does not sound bad at all if the Triad gets a foot.

RAP looks good, too.

41 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

HRRR still looks good.  For some reason in my mind, it's always been the harbinger of the dreaded warm nose, not the NAM.  I'm happy it's on my side.  We'll see. 

41 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

17z HRRR holding on to keeping rain much further south. 

It does look great. I am sure there will be ice mixed in, but I think the majority of the models are showing a good hit of snow before changing to ice up my way. I'll take the majority instead of seeking out the one or two that show the worst case scenario.

Short range models tend to go back and forth a lot with the warm nose and cold air push this close to the event. Remember seeing it happen a lot. 

And I guess I should post it here since it got deleted from the storm thread. 

6 minutes ago, msuwx said:

12z NAM in BUFKIT is much less pronounced with the warm nose for KHKY that it was on the 6z run.... FWIW. 

Seems the NAM is going back and forth with the warm nose while the other models have held steady or even improved this morning.

Woke up to a winter storm warning. RAH saying 3 to 6 inches of snow with up to a quarter inch of freezing rain on top. And if the models are right, the snow amount might be higher. Looks like they keep increasing totals as we get closer. 

5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Not to be out done is the 12K NAM:

Wow, almost a foot for me. Is this the Kuchera map?

NAM looks in line with the Euro and FV3, too.

Better run for RDU.

You know, when I watch TV and there's a new show on that I watch for a few episodes, and then I decide I don't really like it, I don't keep watching it.

Say, what's the deal with people that gave up on the storm two days ago, but still continue to follow the models and post about the storm?

21 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

I want my FV3!

You down with FV3?

Yeah, you know me!

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

This would be a fun storm for RDU. 6" of snow and 1" of ice.

 

I am thinking that is what we get, but with less ice.

Under a Winter Storm Watch now. 

4 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Close up of 3k NAM Kuchera: 

 

The gradient for Wake is funny. And 10.3 for Durham, but 3.9 for Raleigh. 

1 minute ago, RTPGiants said:

Clown map on NAM is ridiculous...if we could somehow manage to keep it a degree cooler.

Looks like the ice is worse as you go from Raleigh to Charlotte. Maybe the snow up this way will be more then.

Maybe letting the cold air get in place longer before the precip arrives could end up being a good thing. 

4 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1071117371224571904?s=19

Allan Huffmans latest thinking. 

Looks like he increased totals a bit. 

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

On the torchyness I guess not lol....this is what I get for trying to do this while out in public. 

You can get arrested for that.

Euro looks almost identical to the GFS ensemble mean.

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

I don't think they are garbage.  I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps.  In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals.

Well, if Cold Rain says they are garbage, that's good enough for me. 

Just now, superjames1992 said:

FYI, I'm pretty sure a lot of that would be sleet/freezing rain, especially for areas on the S/E edge  (like Raleigh).  Still a significant storm, though.

Yeah, even if you cut that in half, it's a good one. 

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

SREF mean is 2" for RDU with MANY members lower than that...     Not looking great...lots of mixing and ice I'm afraid.

Good thing they are garbage. 

Crazy to see a mean like this. 10 plus inches for Raleigh westward.