Paragon

was the damage from this worse than what occurred with the 8.3 quake a few weeks ago?

At that stage though there would probably be total failure in either case. Otherwise, there would be a reason to extend the SS scale to Cat 6 at higher intensities (like the 185 mph landfall of Irma on Barbuda.) It's interesting that the original Fujita scale actually had provisions for an F6, but it was later dropped because the damage from winds of a certain speed could not be distinguished from winds of somewhat lower speeds. (The first Moore, OK tornado was on the threshold of the provisional higher category). I assume the same is true of the SS scale.

Yes, though ironically HMON is the acronym for Hurricanes in a Multi- scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, it is not ocean-coupled in the Atlantic Basin unlike the Pacific. Its pressure intensities for mature systems get overdone in the Atlantic and should not be trusted for Maria. any reason why it wasn't coupled to the Atlantic? We have so many models- is there a version of that model that is coupled to the Atlantic?

It will disrupt it, but the point is, the disruption will only help those places in the path of Maria after PR.

The hindrance would only be helpful to those places impacted after Puerto Rico. Cuba still got 160 mph winds from Irma. Also, higher elevations will likely see higher winds (and rainfall.)

yes I was thinking about the other factors and wondered how they would be included. Since surge is added to what the regular tide brings, I assume that phase of the moon isn't a factor?

Thanks for this and the SDP index (I assume it means Surge Destructive Power.)

Thanks, I don't even remember Emily

We just need one more Cat 5 this season to equal 2005 which had 3 cat 5s (and pressure-wise the strongest hurricane in Atlantic basin recorded history.) Not wishing for that.......

IKE is the best way to judge how high the storm surge will be, Jorge? I wish we could calculate the IKE of some historic storms that supposedly had amazingly high surges, like the 1821 Hurricane (29 foot surge in NJ). Katrina and Sandy also must be high on the list. Does it also work with Pacific typhoons and super typhoons like Haiyan?

Wow the area in the Fla straights. 900-910 mb looks about right for the waters near PR. Somewhat SE of there it's 880-890 mb though.

someone on here posted it a few pages back, they actually stated "900-910 mb"

Just so no one is under any delusions here are some news stories of the destruction Maria has already wrought.

Unfortunately we see this phenomenon quite often just prior to big natural disasters. It's almost as if the human mind tries to downplay something so it won't have to deal with the enormity of it (especially if it's someone who is not directly affected.) I saw this during the early phases of the Katrina disaster, Sandy, Harvey and Irma.

Last I know about was the head of the government talking about the roof of his dwelling being blown off and that this has been the case with most or all of the buildings there.

Wow, and this one is still strengthening. Probably approaching maximum potential since 910mb is about as strong as those waters will support.

I was looking for this before but couldn't find it, what was the strongest TC to directly make landfall on Puerto Rico?

Irma was 914mb at the lowest.

No it's actually scientists who proved there is a connection by analyzing TCs in the Pacific and quakes in Taiwan and also analyzing the tremors following the Virginia quake of 2011 which happened near the time of Irene. People etched in their own ways are just out of touch of the latest research.

So the models showing Jose's remnants going west into NJ and then dissipating over PA are the ones that would bring Maria closer to the coast. The other thing is that Maria needs to move at a quicker pace to avoid being influenced by that front coming in from the west. Maybe Jose's remnants moving west would also slow down the front?

The specialization of dividing things like up is going too far IMO, it's better having things in the same thread, especially when one impacts the other.

It's confusing because one storm affects the other. I hate dividing things like that anyway, it's way too time consuming to switch between different threads.

Looks like the weaker Jose is the more of a chance Maria has to come west. Other thing is the speed of Maria. The faster Maria moves the more west it can get before the trough affects it.

I was wondering about something that no one has been able to give a clear answer to yet, I know we have - NAO that are either west or east based- do we similarly have + NAO that are east or west based and what are the differences? Is one better than the other for us? If not, that means 3 out of 4 NAO phases are bad for us.

This would be the place. They didn't mention the lowest pressure, I wonder what it was? And in terms of wind, is this number five in the world behind Patricia, Haiyan, Tip and David? Those are the 4 190+ mph storms I know of.