TPAwx

2 hours ago, FLweather said:

Both the GFS and HWRF came a little further west with the 0z runs.

Big bend of FL north of Tampa and Clearwater.

GFS the strongest of the 2. 968mb prior to landfall.

HMON targeting SW FL.

Canadian the outlier and the weakest never makes landfall in FL. But skirts east of Miami as a marginal TD/TS.

 

Imo FL still very much in the possibility of having landfall some where. A Irma style track very possible.... SW FL landfall right up the middle of the state.

 

In Tampa this week we’ve been dealing with BAU street flooding from PM storms, and then the stench of dead fish and airborne irritants from red tide pushed in by onshore flow.

Didn’t have a early July TS on the bingo card, still a wide spread for tracks so mildly interested but not concerned at this point.

7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

..2220Z UPDATE     A LONG-TRACK, STRONG TO POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADO IS ONGOING   ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST TOWARDS THE GA BORDER   GIVEN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HAVE EXPANDED THE CATEGORICAL RISKS   SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXTREMELY INTENSE SUPERCELL.  

Was curious how far this thing can persist.  Hard to imagine it could get to the south of Atlanta, but it’s an exceptional system.

Do folks really keep helmets on hand?

3 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

April 27 11 had 01km shear 1000 m2s2, the days storms in Alabama 200 m2s2. Let's tell Adair to stop the hype.  The winds are certainly not as backed and low levsl jet during day is not extreme. 

I’ll go with the pros at SPC over Random Internet Contrarian Guy Who Seeks Attention.

The parameters and set up support a very significant and impactful event today.

36 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Everyone enjoying the used to be king euro? Next time you call it “king” remember this solution! It’s no better than any other model. Been bad since summer! 

You are dumping on a data simulation of snowfall amounts 156h in the future?

Lived in NOVA for every significant snow from 78 to 2016.  
 

The first rule of DC winters was and remains:  Lucy is rarely denied her glory.

Tempted to come up for this one, if Euro holds serve 96 hours out.

Need a change from running the AC and wearing shorts.

Not too common here.

Enjoy whatever you get up there.  Lived in IAD area for a long time and spent endless hours tracking these things only to be Charlie Brown football’d almost every time.  Eventually learned to accept that any falling snow in Dec was a bonus to be appreciated and enjoyed.  Dec 2009 and a few others were notable exceptions of course.

73/62 here.

It was 39 down here in Tampa last week.  
 

Sucks y’all can’t manage to combine precip and temps for a proper winter storm.

Appears Tampa had a 4 foot surge on top of high tide, which will certainly have widespread impacts across the area.

Instructive storm for Tampa area.  

The angle of approach and landfall north of Clearwater (Eta will come ashore around Crystal River or Cedar Key) somewhat echos the worst case scenario Hurricane Phoenix simulation.  That of course would be a massive Cat 4/5, and would bring a 30+ foot surge through downtown.  So obviously not apples to apples.

But Eta is a 65 mph TS and is bringing an impressive degree of flooding thus far.  This is not a typical angle of approach for systems here, with the wind and surge stacking and funneling up the Bay and rivers.  It’s easy to see how a major+ would be epically bad and likely catastrophic.

5 hours ago, Prospero said:

Bay Shore WILL be flooded tomorrow morning. We already know that.

 

 

It’s already completely flooded over at the north end near downtown.  More extensive than I anticipated.  Got hit by a strong gust and almost fell off a ledge into the water.

Gonna go check this out now.

Just returned from a walk, it’s considerably warmer than earlier so I assume there’s a Hot Tower in the vincinity.

Wind has really started to pick up here in Tampa.

My neighborhood.  Water will likely breach over into the road later this evening.  Houses on the other side of Bayshore should be ok.

Standing water already an issue on the roads across South Tampa.  Some pretty hefty downpours moving though but the wind has been minor thus far.

Some spin ups with this band coming ashore

31 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

I can’t imagine Davis Island would do go well from a direct hit, even if it’s from a TS. The rain/surge will have bigger impacts 

Primary concern with DI is Tampa General Hospital, but their power infrastructure is elevated so they should be ok with this one.

I live at water’s edge right across from TGH and will post pics if anything materializes. 

7 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Hope sheltering does not create a further issue with Covid.    
 

i am concerned with the flooding from this storm. Does anyone know how the expected ETA in the Tampa Bay region matches up with the tide? 

High tide at midnight, should be close to max storm impacts.  We’re under a 2-4ft surge warning.  As you know much of Tampa is prone to flooding from BAU heavy rainfall.