eduggs
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About eduggs
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Get outside and enjoy it out there on the Twin Forks! These types of mesoscale powder snow events don't happen often.
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Where I am we had a dusting from many hours of pixie dust. It mostly sublimated on contact. Whatever fell is long gone.
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I love these kinds of snow events that ELI, ECT, EMA, and RI are seeing this morning. High-end mesoscale/nowcast events that are highly localized and you don't know exactly what to expect. Cold and powdery snow too! Just one event like that would go a long way to easing the pain of the only two decent wintry events of the winter shifting warmer in the mid-level over the last 48 hours such that half the precipitation fell as IP/ZR. I still haven't recovered from those. It would really only have taken one plowable snow event on top of the glacier to do the trick I think. But nothing has really worked out favorable since the 3 hour snow event on Jan 17.
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It's been a real struggle to get any snow threats inside 10 days since Jan 25. Nothing has broken right for us for two weeks. We can't even buy a good snow shower despite unrelenting cold. The midweek threat is gone and the weekend threat is looking shaky. A cold, windy day like today only rubs salt in the wound without fresh snow and/or a trackable threat. The vibe and feel of this winter changes quickly as you go from SNJ through NENJ to CT and then EMA. South of CNJ this has been a cold but mostly snowless winter. But once you cross into CT and SNE in most areas this has been a downright snowy winter.
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It's been below average cold for a solid 3 weeks right through the heart of winter. The mix event on January 25 was a lot of fun, but this period will be remembered for its cold not for its snow.
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The blinds were closed for a week and I just peaked out to see the UKMET still showing less than 0.1" liquid through the end of its run. The CMC has a few tenths through day 10 but it's rain. And no consensus among the other models for a clear threat through the mid-range. I really hope it won't be another close-the-blinds week.
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The ensembles suggest multiple waves days 5-12. But the spread-out nature of the QPF suggests disagreement about timing and significance of each in succession. I don't believe we have a clear signal yet for specific storm events or dates. The most tangible is the first, mid-week wave but even this nearer threat is still evolving.
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Yeah basically 72 consecutive hours of precipitation - mostly snow! It ejects a bigger piece of the Pacific trof hitting CA day 4 out ahead of the consolidated ULL. This evolution doesn't have much support unfortunately among the other models save for maybe a few GEFS members. The height field evolution across the northeast days 4-6 is also very different from model consensus right now. I expect a lot of run to run variability for next week for the next few days. I don't like seeing the 2/11 wave trend a little warmer in recent runs across most guidance.
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Great table. Perfectly illustrates March outside the hill country. 4 major snow events got obliterated within days in an exceptionally snowy March. I'm sure it was a lot of fun while the snow was falling. But the vibe is very different in March than it is in early February.
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I think the median 30-year March snowfall at NYC is about 1.5". The mean, which is skewed by a few snowier years, is about 4". Certainly areas outside NYC can do better. But March 2018 comes around once every 50 years. Sadly, March 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 are far more common.
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Yeah the AI models look like early 90s MRF. But they would wipe the floor with that model. Day 10 AI verification is similar to 120hr MRF in the old days. Lower (output) resolution doesn't really harm their ability to capture synoptic progression because they are not directly physics-based. The visual of low resolution biases our perception of their worth. You really should look at them more. The ECMWF-AIFS is also getting a resolution upgrade I think.
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I think people forget how warm March has gotten around here. It almost never snows outside the mountains in March these days. And on the uncommon occasions it does, it melts in a day or two. I think we need winter to deliver in February, preferably the first half. Technically it can snow right into April, but climate norms and sun angle get hostile to the winter vibe really fast after mid-Feb. near the coast at 40 degrees north.
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As we get nearer, the long-range appears to be adjusting a little colder in the modeling, as it has most of the winter. The AI models seem to be leading the way. We'll see where we are in about a week... maybe we can stay on the cold side of the boundary. Total wild card with the PNA ridge breaking down. Historically that would signal springlike weather but the tenor of this winter with the neg NAO and Atlantic pattern could mitigate that. Fingers crossed.
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The key aspect of this winter that has made it satisfying for me was the back to back ~3" events on Sat/Sun the 18th/19th and then the warning snow/ice the following weekend. That was a lot of weekend, daytime snow in a short period... so lots of winter recreation opportunities during falling snow. The Jan 25th event by itself with 7 hours of snow followed by 7 hours of mix would have left me wanting more. We wait for the entire year for just a few hours to enjoy being outside during a snowstorm. So when it doesn't deliver that experience, the disappointment of having to wait another year can be significant.
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Even a few 1" refreshers would have gone a long way during this period. This winter has clearly been better than the last several, but the two sleet events have tainted the vibe in NJ relative to areas east (NYC/LI) and north (LHV).
