eduggs

It's pretty cool to see embedded bursts of steadier snow with real snowflakes and maybe 1mi visibility. These bursts are evident on radar as parallel bands oriented transverse to the direction of movement. Model soundings were reflective of the low level pixie dust stuff that's forming below the radar beam. But the heavier banded stuff is actually showing up on radar and accumulating.

Pretty snowy night out there. Alternating flurries and light snow with intensity gradually increasing since 9pm or so. Probably a few tenths accumulation on all surfaces... could be some slick spots. Nice job by the hi-res models even days in advance. I'm not sure how well models would have picked this up 15 years ago.

Same here in central Morris County (except for 26F). Been snowing on and off for several hours. Mostly snow grains.

Saturation is below the snow growth zone. The moisture is very shallow. That's probably snow grains and/or ZR. Not impossible a few spots get lucky if lift/saturation is more robust than modeled... seems doubtful for now.

The low level moisture moving in on a SSE flow is already visible on radar off the NJ coast. If it's ZR, I can see short-fused advisories being posted. I hope it's snow/snow grains instead.

The 18z 3km NAM has 0.1" liquid for part of the region tonight. I'm skeptical that it can accumulate much due to snow growth problem. But sometimes these low level lift/crystallization events that linger for several hours over an area can surprise. I'll take the under for now.

Examining model soundings for tonight, it looks like saturation is mostly below the snow growth zone. That suggests maybe freezing drizzle and snow grains.

Cycling through all model guidance from 0z to 12z it's kind of funny to see what looks like a snow force field in effect for our area. Plenty of action but it's either north or south. Hope it changes soon.

The GFS is an outlier with respect to Sun-Mon. There is very little overlap between the EPS/GEPS and the GEFS right now. But... the GFS has trended "better" for a few runs now. Negatives are north SLP track and southerly winds, positives are decent antecedent airmass and potent shortwave.

The RGEM snow accumulation map I showed in now through Saturday. I should have showed the time stamp and duration. There's a weak mid-level shortwave interacting with the offshore SLP. It could generate snow showers on Saturday. I agree that the Friday and Sunday events are frustration.

The RGEM has a little snow early Saturday. It's not much and it will probably shift east or be flurries if it's even real, but it's something...

I read Albany airport is over 14" already this season and they average 3.9" to date. That's a heck of a start! The valley can be a bit of a snow hole with substantially more snow to the east and west. There are indications it might continue for a while. Enjoy it up there.

I remember many winters back through the 90s where there was bare ground through Xmas/New Years even up into the North Country and Vermont... sometimes even in the heart of winter, especially outside the mountains. So far this year it's deep winter throughout the interior. That could be a harbinger of things to come. There's been a bit of a screw zone relative to climo over the past few years from EPA through NENJ and SENY while places north, east, and south have cashed in occasionally. That experience can create a negative bias with respect to future outcomes. But eventually our luck will change despite the warming global climate.

Random observation, but it's been a snowy week in Albany and the upper Hudson Valley. Yes that's far outside our region, but not typically a very snowy area. They got into intense lake effect snow last Fri for several hours then warning snows on Tue and now arctic snow squalls incoming. Hopefully we can spread that love a little further south down the Hudson over the next few weeks.