eduggs
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About eduggs
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GFS-AI is miss, miss, rain. GFS is miss, miss, cold. But both are close to back to back hits. With the reliability of the ECM-AIFS, which is also showing essentially a miss, miss scenario next week, that should probably be the baseline for expectations until things look more hopeful. It's definitely not a close the blinds week though, fortunately.
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Yuck.
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That was a brutal 12z ECM-AIFS run all the way out to 10 days. The low heights in southern Ontario are perfectly timed to squash the mid-week threat. Then it's cold northwest flow through to the extended range. The worst part about the ECM-AIFS is that it's so steady and reliable that it's ruins wishcasting
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This deep winter feel is really enjoyable. And I'm really happy with the 10"+ of concrete I got last weekend and several hours of outdoor activities in heavy snow. But I just realized it's been 9 straight days of unfavorable weather modeling for snow locally. It began on the Thursday before the big event, and nothing has trended favorably since that day. The AI models are so steady and reliable that I start to lose confidence that something can pop up inside 7 days.
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Currently 8" snow depth not too far from Morristown, NJ. That's probably slightly above the 30 year average for the date but not unusual. There has been good snow cover for several weeks but not a deep snow pack. Lake ice is getting really thick.
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Let's trend the Wednesday wave north. That's the easiest way to score some snow next week. Ensembles had been improving but took a step back beginning overnight. I don't think we've had a plowable snow event this winter when the ECM-AI was not showing it 6 days out.
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I don't like the way guidance is headed for next week. The ECM-AI looks to once again lead the way. As others have said - looks like we're headed back to a northern stream dominated period with wave interference problems. Notice how a tiny piece of energy escapes from the "southern stream" on Tuesday under the longwave trof at exactly the same time as a renegade ULL traverses southern Ontario, suppressing heights along the east coast. Cold and dry looks to reign until the drought is broken in the west. The Wed - Fri period doesn't look hopeless, but it's starting to slip away.
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The 6z ECMWF-AIFS is pretty snowy late next week. The 12 AIGFS is very similar aloft. Pond ice is great. Winter tracking continues...
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The 9z SREF is really juiced up. The mean is over 0.25" liquid at NYC (3z was a little less). I count 11 hits and 13 misses among the members. A few of the hits are major. This is the weeniest of weenie "models." But I still prefer seeing it increase QPF rather than decrease it run to run.
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The ICON ensembles have about a tenth liquid back to NYC. So really just a few outlier individual members with a glancing hit. This is a little better than 6z and a little worse than 0z. Just enough interest for false hope.
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The RGEM run isn't encouraging. Worst run in several cycles. And the excellent run-to-run consistency dating back a few days further decreases the chances of last minute positive changes.
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I haven't looked closely but it seemed to be incorporating very high liquid to snow ratios. The QPF forecast map doesn't look that unreasonable, especially considering the lag. NWS offices also have to account for the small possibility that this shifts back NW at the last minute. They don't want forecast whiplash.
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If other guidance eventually matches the NAM and we get one more small tick closer, this would be a fun nowcast on Sunday for coastal regions. I'm doubtful we even get that close given the persistence of unsupportive modeling outside recent ECM runs. But it's still a low level chance IMO.
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I'd still be keeping an eye on this if I was in eastern LI or coastal NJ - esp SNJ. Could still be a close pass with a deformation band even if the SLP is very far offshore.
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Yeah something usually goes wrong. But I think it's always been like that to a large degree. It's why NYC rarely exceeded 80" in a winter even dating back 100+ years and during a colder climate. We just didn't used to so carefully monitor from 10 days out on a dozen different models every 6 hours. It was convoluted in the past too but we just didn't notice.
