eduggs
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About eduggs
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Verbatim one of the best 10-day runs of the season. Several snow threats in there. But there are no slam dunks or easy wins in that run. Could be several hits or several misses. Low margins as usual. Before I get excited about the mid- or long-range I'm pulling for a 2-4" event Sunday night.
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The Ukie is north of 12z too. Gets precipitation to CNJ and tickles the City. Looks better aloft too.
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It's kind of an interesting scenario because just about all models are trending towards a better phase if you cycle the past 4 runs or so. Even the RGEM and NAM which don't look great at the surface. QPF increases dramatically among the individual ensemble members based on degree of phasing. But as is right now the model consensus is still miss or fringe.
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The northern stream shortwave on the 18z NAM looks a little better positioned to bring precipitation north at 48 hours.
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ICON-EPS has about 58% chance of measurable at NYC and 12% 1" liquid. That's a relatively small spread between the extreme outcomes. AIFS-EPS has only 2% chance of 1" of liquid. That continues the theme of a likely miss but small chance of a big hit. Kind of unusual at this short lead time over the past 5 years.
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The SLP strength and position on Sun night is highly sensitive to the strength/position of the minor shortwave in the northern stream flow. That's why the globals have been jumping around with the degree of phasing, notably and uncharacteristically the AIFS. It's also why a few individual ensemble members, especially a few days ago, showed big QPF numbers while the majority were light or complete misses. This setup is a little unusual for this winter in that we do have a strong southern stream wave traversing the country. It wouldn't take much northern stream interaction at all to get light to moderate precipitation up to at least CNJ. You gotta think the chances of precipitation in NYC are low, but it's the kind of setup that could change quickly in the short term.
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The 18z EPS-AIFS are very snowy, which is suspicious. A few of the individuals continue to show a high end snowstorm, which skews the mean, but even the median is decent for snow. It's strange considering how far off most guidance looks in the upper levels from supporting a coastal SLP. It looks like there is a lot of sensitivity with respect to phasing of the northern stream. And a small amount of phasing could lead to a significant surface response.
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The elevation of downtown Albany is between about 150ft and sea/river level. The airport (NWS) is just below 300ft. The City is noticeably warmer than the towns on the escarpment to the west or the Taconics to the east. Most of the true HV is actually below 500ft. You are in the Hudson Highlands. But of course most people refer to the entire region, hill country or valley, as the HV.
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It's just a word. Everybody has their own definition. For me, the key distinction is whether snow/ice is increasing or decreasing on the whole (or if it could with precipitation). That takes into account all the factors that play into winter like diurnal temp ranges and sun angle. When net snow starts to decrease, I call that spring. For other people, maybe if it can snow and is occasionally below freezing, then it's still winter (e.g., Nov or April). I've lived in both Boston and Albany. Boston Logan (where NWS measurements are taken) is warmer and less snowy than most people who don't live there think due to the marine influence. The airport is on a man-make island out in the harbor. The NWS station doesn't get a ton of snow because of that, unlike places just to the north or west of Boston. But Boston does get the occasion big snowstorm. Albany, by comparison, gets fewer big events but more small events. Albany often avoids the chilly backdoor cold fronts that Boston experiences in April.
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I'm not sure what you consider "damn cold." But average highs are in the 40s beginning around the first of March. Snow typically doesn't linger long, except during unseasonably cold periods. Maybe compared to NJ you remember it as having been cold, but climatologically/typically spring comes relatively quickly near sea level all the way up the Hudson Valley in March.
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The small number of very high QPF individual ensemble members for this weekend's event suggests a very low likelihood but high ceiling threat.
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I did for many years. And late Feb was often the time where it began to feel Spring-like in many years. Its low elevation and tendency to downslope makes it a warm location relative to the surrounding hills.
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March has a very different feel to the other months. Temperature-wise it's like late Nov into early December but with a much higher sun angle. So yes it can snow, but it almost always melts quickly. Elevation makes more difference in March too. Albany, NY tends to switch to Spring pretty quickly in March most years, while the high country of southern VT and the Catskills can still feel like deep winter. It's very location dependent but almost always categorized by freeze-thaw, mud, and residual salt grime.
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Get outside and enjoy it out there on the Twin Forks! These types of mesoscale powder snow events don't happen often.
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Where I am we had a dusting from many hours of pixie dust. It mostly sublimated on contact. Whatever fell is long gone.
