Chicago Storm

28 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Is this a mesolow around Waukegan?

It's a vort in the UL flow.

Final event snowfall total of 2.0" at ORD.

Seasonal snowfall total is up to 7.7" now.

1 hour ago, McHenrySnow said:

last person anyone wants starting it. you're the ultimate storm killer. 

last thread worked out pretty well for the southern 1/3rd of the sub-forum.

a solid threading.

because some of you really need it.

5 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If we are not going warning criteria, go for futility. 

the nickel and dimers are preventing that possibility.

pull it together, ya'll.

you'll survive, it's just snow.

Forgot to mention...

The LE ended up being about 95% FZRA at ORD. Trees, grass, etc, were all coated with ~0.20" of ice.

Chalk that up as a rare occurrence.

LES didn't bust across NE Illinois or SE Wisconsin. It was just that the guidance that was further west actually was correct for once. And that only happened because I said that usually doesn't happen.

Reported snowfall totals of 2-6" are common across eastern Racine, Kenosha, and Lake Counties. For the parameters that were in place, that's really solid.

For the LES snow in N Illinois and SE Wisconsin, the surface convergence is actually east of where some guidance had it. However, the flow just off the surface (925mb/850mb) is hard NE, which is driving things westward.

32 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Unfortunately with the low traveling on this axis, I think the SE WI and Lake county solutions are most likely. That, and the Canadian products are bad 

LE *usually* verifies east of guidance, so we'll see...

For those in SE Wisconsin and NE Illinois...

Don't sleep on the LES potential. While parameters aren't amazing, hi-res guidance is in full support in showing enough QPF for 6"+. So, while the parameters are not great, the production on shown on guidance is a big flag for me.

12z suite looked a lot more active for the subforum with another event next weekend to watch 

ORD ended up with 0.3" of snow with the disturbance last evening/night.

Up to 5.6" of snow on the season.

live by the thread, die by the needle.

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Dude the GHD blizzard was a panhandle storm, so was the Blizzard of 99 and 78. What are we even doing here..

he's doing something i (and others) were yelled at for saying happens in every winter thread.

The July 15th derecho easily was the top weather event of the year around here, and it probably was the top weather event in general in many years.

u can tell it's a bad winter by how triggered folks are

2024 finished as the warmest year on record for Chicago.

Record Warmest Year's
1. 55.0° - 2024
2. 54.5° - 2012
2. 54.5° - 1921
4. 54.1° - 2023
5. 54.0° - 1931
6. 53.5° - 2021
7. 53.5° - 1998
8. 53.3° - 2020
9. 53.2° - 1953
10. 52.9° - 1954

2024 finished as the warmest year on record for Chicago.

Record Warmest Year's
1. 55.0° - 2024
2. 54.5° - 2012
2. 54.5° - 1921
4. 54.1° - 2023
5. 54.0° - 1931
6. 53.5° - 2021
7. 53.5° - 1998
8. 53.3° - 2020
9. 53.2° - 1953
10. 52.9° - 1954

Key here is “potential”.

Still a lot that can go right and a lot that can go wrong with this type of setup and still being 5 days out.

There’s been a big shift in the evolution of things aloft on most guidance over the past day or so. Gone is the several piece phasing across Canada down into the US, and it has been replaced by a far less phased gyre of a wave, which tracks more W-E across the Western and Central US, before running into a wall and rapidly shearing out.

That’s the main reason you’re seeing a shift towards a weaker, earlier sheared, and further south tracking storm system.

The thread is splitting when trying to thread the eye of the needle, and the current trends are not optimal.

What zero snow does to mfs

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Well luckily you only post when your backyard is in line for an event, or to belittle/talk down on someone's post with a 3 word response; instead of explaining why they're wrong and flexing like we all know you want to with that ego. 

key point: i don't care what you think of me.

but, since we're on that, it's clear that others share the same sentiment re: "michigan woe is me". so, thanks for enforcing that even more.

8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I’d love to have the “snowless Michigan, woe is me” conversation again but we’ll save that for when I’m in need for entertainment

everyone's favorite past-time.

Hate to keep beating this dead horse but this was the weakest hyped up torch since the last hyped torch.


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