Chicago Storm

Made it back to St. Petersburg after the intercept in Sarasota earlier.

Checked out Tropicana Field and the crane downed…

Do you see water levels rising from like 1’ to 4’ very fast like around 30 minutes? 

Yea, it was a fairly steady/quick rise or perhaps 1-3’.

Surge coming into Sarasota steadily now.

Had to retreat from Bayfront Park and back into “downtown” a bit.

Low and mid level clouds have cleared in the residual eye here in Sarasota. Directly above at this time, totally calm.

957MB on Kestrel.

Consistent high end tropical storm force/low end hurricane force wind gusts in Sarasota.

Still very limited surge, nothing of note.

Stepping south to Sarasota now.

Getting mid to upper tropical storm force wind gusts at times now, resulting in some scattered tree damage. Water rise at Cortez was still slow. Scattered road and land flooding from the heavy rainfall.

Just passed a large fire near Bayshore Gardens.

Made it to Sarasota.

Water levels are a bit elevated, but not enough for much flooding along the shore. Winds are still consistently gusting to mid to high level tropical storm force.

Conditions slowly, but steadily increasing here in Cortez.

Getting low end tropical storm force wind gusts, with a slow water rise over the past hour to hour and a half.

Stepping south to Sarasota now.

Getting mid to upper tropical storm force wind gusts at times now, resulting in some scattered tree damage. Water rise at Cortez was still slow. Scattered road and land flooding from the heavy rainfall.

Just passed a large fire near Bayshore Gardens.

Conditions slowly, but steadily increasing here in Cortez.

Getting low end tropical storm force wind gusts, with a slow water rise over the past hour to hour and a half.

Currently in Cortez, FL…on the coast near Bradenton.

The outer bands have been gusty, but nothing significant.

Monitoring for the possibility of needing to step south a bit.

Starting the morning here in St. Pete, and will be stepping southward as needed through the day today.

Flying into Orlando tomorrow morning to "chase" Milton.

September 2024 finished tied as the 2nd warmest September on record for Chicago.

Record Warmest September's
1. 71.2° - 1931
2. 70.6° - 2024
2. 70.6° - 1960
2. 70.6° - 1908
5. 70.3° - 2021
6. 70.2° - 1978
6. 70.2° - 1925
6. 70.2° - 1881
9. 70.1° - 1906
10. 70.0° - 1939
10. 70.0° - 1921

September 2024 finished tied as the 2nd warmest September on record for Chicago.

Record Warmest September's
1. 71.2° - 1931
2. 70.6° - 2024
2. 70.6° - 1960
2. 70.6° - 1908
5. 70.3° - 2021
6. 70.2° - 1978
6. 70.2° - 1925
6. 70.2° - 1881
9. 70.1° - 1906
10. 70.0° - 1939
10. 70.0° - 1921

8 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Didn't there used to be quite a disparity between MDW and ORD? They were pretty close to each other this year. Also, didn't RFD tend to run warm?

MDW does usually win the race against ORD, but there is some variability from year to year...

2024: +2 MDW
2023: +2 ORD
2022: +12 MDW
2021: +8 MDW
2020: +6 ORD
2019: +4 MDW
2018: +3 MDW
2017: Even
2016: +9 MDW
2015: +8 MDW
2014: +5 MDW
2013: +4 MDW
2012: +5 ORD
2011: +5 MDW
2010: +1 MDW

 

Things ended on a high note this weekend, with the last hot/summer-like day of the year...

Topped out at 92° at ORD and at 93° MDW on Saturday.

...2024 90°+ Day Tally...
25 - MDW
23 - ORD
19 - ARR
19 - LOT
18 - RFD
18 - PWK
17 - DPA
10 - UGN

This late season stretch of summer continues...

Topped out at 90° at MDW on Thursday. Peaked at 91° at ORD and at 92° MDW on today.

...2024 90°+ Day Tally...
24 - MDW
22 - ORD
18 - ARR
18 - LOT
17 - RFD
17 - PWK
16 - DPA
10 - UGN

12 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Interesting that it says none for my area.  Based on soil moisture, lake level, stream flow and the near by pond that I monitor (see it every day I walk the dog), it is more like D1 here. I know my area is drying than several of the surrounding areas as the last few systems missed/went around here by a couple miles.  I willing bet that is why.

I've noticed over time that those who make the drought monitor maps are usually slow at adding conditions and slow at removing conditions. Not sure why the lag on both ends, but it always seems to be the case.

With the help of the increasing drought, we've eeked out a few 90° days recently.

Topped out at 90° at ORD on Sunday. Peaked at 90° at both ORD and at MDW on Monday.

...2024 90°+ Day Tally...
22 - MDW
21 - ORD
18 - LOT
17 - PWK
17 - ARR
16 - RFD
15 - DPA
10 - UGN

56 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

You and @Baum can go check out the temperature forecast contests in the weather forecasting sub if you want instead of being snarky, imbecilic assholes. The scoring speaks for itself.

lol

Activity around here on Tuesday evening/night had prolific lightning production. It was probably a top 10 light show.

Ended up with a peak wind gust of 53MPH at ORD, with some blowing dirt/dust for awhile as well, as it has been dry and outflow winds were well ahead of any rain/t'storm activity.

A few record tied or broken during this recent period...

ORD had a low temperature of 74° on August 25th, which tied the record high min temp for the date of 74° (1959).

ORD had a low temperature of 79° on August 26th, which broke the record high min temp for the date of 77° (1973).

ORD had a high temperature of 99° on August 27th, which broke the record high max temp for the date of 97° (1937).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 74° on August 25th, which tied the record high minimum temperature for the date of 74° (1959).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 79° on August 26th, which broke the record high minimum temperature for the date of 77° (1973).

Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 99° on August 27th, which broke the record high maximum temperature for the date of 97° (1937).

Topped out at 99° at both ORD and at MDW on Tuesday.

...2024 90°+ Day Tally...
21 - MDW
19 - ORD
17 - PWK
16 - RFD
16 - LOT
15 - DPA
15 - ARR
10 - UGN

30 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I think people are getting caught up on the semantics of the word "historical".  To me, historical doesn't mean the same as unprecedented. Yes, it has been hot this time of year in the past, and yes it has hit 100 in Sept before. But normal highs are near 80 this time of year, so the 96 & 99 highs at ORD yesterday & today respectively (combined with very high humidity, dews mid-upper 70s) are an extremely unusual occurrence in late August. Why is this controversial?

It's just like in winter, when people use basic high-level numbers to judge how good a month or season is. There is much more to it than that. For example, if January has 10" of snow but with snow cover all month due to cold temps, it's definitely more wintry than a January with 15" of snow with constant thaws.  The point is that total snowfall doesn't tell the whole story of a winter. Same idea in summer - the past 2 days at ORD had extremely high humidity with very high overnight mins. This is much worse from a historical/impact perspective than a 102/65 max/min with dews around 60.  In other words, high temps alone don't tell the whole story.

The Climate Changer is correct that things have been warming up recently, especially in UHI areas. Of course, this is in general...not necessarily every single year. And, of course, we can't attribute individual heat waves to this. But people have a right to worry about more heat waves, especially if you live in a city with worsening UHI and the public planning/actions aren't helping to mitigate UHI (much less acknowledge that it's a problem to begin with). I guess we have know-it-alls on this forum who go against all of the established science. For what purpose - to stir up drama? Why? Recent warming is common knowledge, even if it's not 100% man-made. Pointing this out shouldn't be controversial. Look at the average temps at ORD as an example; they've increased 3-4 F over the past 40 years in winter, and 2-3F in the other seasons. That's a very big deal. Heck, even a 1F change would be a big deal over 40 years, which is a speck of time in the grand scheme of things. It's even worse in the arctic. Perhaps The Climate Changer and others get frustrated sometimes because no one (meaning "global society") seems to acknowledge it, or care, or do anything about it. It's the same idea as a person who works tirelessly to advocate for affordable housing and other policies to help the homeless...but nothing ever gets better because not enough people in important/influential positions care.

Whether it's UHI worsening, higher nighttime mins (not as much daytime maxes), more impact in the winter vs. summer, or a combination of all of these...it's definitely happening. Personally, I'm putting my hope on a reversing AMO to slow or even reverse the warming a bit...which will be great if it happens. But even so, it's reasonable to take an approach of "I'll believe it when I see it".

There are going to be deaths from the current heat wave, especially in Chicago due to less access to AC and other reasons.  That in and of itself makes it a noteworthy and concerning (one could even say "historical") event, unless we don't care about people suffering.

None of these comments are meant to be alarmist; it's just the unfortunate reality. Why is it nonsense for The Climate Changer to point these things out? If people don't want to accept the factual/statistical info, you can put him on ignore.

lol.

i didn't have a beavis summer rant in my card deck, but it lived up to the usual winter lol's.

1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

wow, 99 at ORD now. 100 may actually happen after all.

it didn't.