Jump to content

Chicago Storm

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    17,149

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Chicago Storm

    Fall 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Oct thoughts to come in a later post, but not much change expected to start.
    For the first 1/3rd of October (Through close to the 10th-ish), things look to remain as they generally have been. Feels like I've said this about 50 times over the past few months, but for this first chunk of October we will see a continuation of the general pattern we have seen dominate a good portion of the summer and the pattern we are currently in. The constant troughing centered around the Hudson/Greenland, which has been relentless, will continue to be the focus for weather in most of our sub-forum. All in all, this will lead to generally zzz and dry weather activity wise, and a fall-like temperature regime for the first 1/3rd of the month.
    One wildcard to watch will be the potential for the splitting of the newly formed seasonal PV in the Arctic. The GEFS were showing this in the very extended, and as time goes on, they continue to latch onto this idea even more-so. That could alter things for the end of the first 1/3rd of the month and second 1/3rd of the month.
    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-4992800.thumb.png.e01b7649b3a17998a01e9fc6c8f98e65.png
    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_barbs-5360000.thumb.png.dd0ae6e1b1cf9421d9e7e676642623eb.png

    Fall 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    On 9/13/2022 at 8:28 PM, Chicago Storm said:

    It's been a while since I've had a chance to throw out any thoughts regarding the medium/long range, but really there hasn't been anything that has significantly changed since my last post in the summer thread from mid-August. The pattern we have seen dominant much of the summer was expected to continue through the end of August, and it ended up doing so. For the first half of September, a variation of this same pattern has continued...Though with a bit more troughing along the West Coast at times and a few transient bouts of ridging up in the Greenland/North Pole area at times.

    We are finally going to see a significant change coming up shortly, but it appears as though it will be short lived. As is being mentioned by many, we are looking at a warm up for late this week through the first half of next week across a good chunk of the sub-forum. This warm up will bring a re-introduction to temperatures into the 80's/90's for many for a several day period. This warm up will be a product of an increasing -PNA/West Coast trough, one of the most significant we have seen all summer. This will pump up ridging across the Central/Southern Plain, Ohio Valley and Southeast...Leading the the aforementioned period of warmer/hotter temps. Beyond this time (After mid-next week), like clock work it appears we'll head back into some variation of the dominant pattern we've seen much of the summer.

    Everything has panned out pretty much as expected for mid to late Sept...With the heat wave in mid Sept, followed by a return to a similar pattern as to what has dominated much of the summer (Pictured below). Oct thoughts to come in a later post, but not much change expected to start.

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-4280000.thumb.png.92831ee3fed881a6fdd1884d718d63e5.png

     

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

    Really curious to know what’s going on in Tampa Bay Area right now. Have to imagine some severe coastal flooding all along the e south sections of the bay with the persistent northerly fetch.

    Not surprisingly, levels are running below there as well...Though a bit less than other sites in the bay area.

    The generally NE wind has been running nearly parallel to the length of the bay blowing out. This isn't really a situation where the water is going to stack up or has nowhere to go, as it is just existing into the Gulf.

    image.png.425b6e582f81c624a3aef273dbe332fb.png

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    SevereStudios cam set up WSW of Punta Gorda is getting rocked right now, the worst it has been all day visually there.

    The W-N eyewall is still potent, with new hot towers visible on IR satellite and a higher end velocity signature still. There also looks to be a sustained MV signature just north of Punta Gorda, on the NW side of the COC as well.

    • Like 5

    2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, madwx said:

    Pretty amazing bust on the CAMs which did not predict the line of storms going through southern wisconsin

     

    54 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

    Atrocious performance by the runs from earlier today.  Really no other way to say it.

    Not only CAMS, but most other guidance also didn't have much of anything for the most part.

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...