LibertyBell
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Kara Block = Black Swan event. It also happened in the 2015-16 winter to turn that winter around from historically warm to historically snowy and cold.
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Chris, how much does this anomalous block have to do with the Kara Block that just caused the record setting snowfall in northern Japan? Other reasons why our midrange and longrange forecasting isn't more accurate is because of poor sampling in the oceans and in other parts of the world. Our weather doesn't begin here, it begins on the other side of the world and over sparsely sampled ocean waters.
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That's very interesting, the Kara Block is what drove the sudden change in the 2015-16 winter too that eventually led to the HECS. I wonder if the Kara Block is the reason why we're seeing the sudden change in the predictions for this month too.
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it's like trying to thread a needle and missing it by just a little bit each time (in either direction). This is why it's a thread the needle pattern. Many more ways for things to go wrong than ways for them to go right. -
Logic is an important part of any scientific quest and logic shows us that you just can't rely on any particular outcome. Some people are treating something that might be slightly more likely than not as some kind of scientific certitude. You can't track something that doesn't even exist yet.
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let's hope that following week pattern plays out, it still looks like the temperatures will be borderline, there dont seem to be any real cold outbreaks coming up. Temperatures in the 30s are cold especially for late February, but borderline when it comes to snow.
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we really don't know yet but using our latitude and climo as reference, it's best not to expect more than a couple of inches.
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a lot of people will have egg on their face if this south trend continues .like I said elsewhere, this isn't like astronomy, it's nowhere close to an exact science.
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It's not science if you don't understand chaos theory, pal. And you can't track something 7 days out let alone or 10 or 14 days. There's literally nothing to track that far in advance unless you're tracking an index value and that's not tracking anything. Tracking something 7+ days out That's not science-- that's nonsense. Learn the difference between correlation, causation and how chaos is much stronger than any index and learn that the effectivity of these tools is EXTREMELY limited and you'll be disappointed far less often. As an example of the limitations of these tools, 5-7 days ago the outlook for February was entirely different than what it is now. This isn't astronomy, it's not an exact science, it's not even close.
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Damn, I don't remember any snow that month, all I remember is that February was warm after that historic arctic outbreak in January 1985.
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we usually have a lot more 50 degree days by now. It's rare to get this long of a break from mild weather even during the winter.
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the greatest of human activities are the result of feelings pal. Otherwise you wouldn't have genuises like Mozart and Leonardo Da Vinci. You'd just have a bunch of mediocre calculator jockeys / accountants looking at lines on a chart and trying to figure out which line correlates to what outcome 2 weeks down the line when chaos is far more important than any correlation. But you probably didn't even understand any of what that means.....
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there are levels to everything, it's why some winters are bad, some are average, while others are good and some are truly great. Some winters you just know are slam dunk great like 1995-96 and 2002-03. They're extremely rare. You can have a good pattern but it's still not a great one. Sort of like having a good player, but you wouldn't say he's the next Michael Jordan.
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What caused this?
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The heaviest snow is usually just north of the mix line. It will be interesting to see what the Euro and other models show.
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So the mix line south of us isn't much of a worry because there is arctic air pressing down? That's what made PD2 a HECS, that arctic air resulted in high ratio snow, we got 26 inches at JFK.
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Wild, that looks a lot like PD2. This is actually for Presidents Day weekend too. The High to our north is in a prime position too and not moving offshore.
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The difference being that time that no one north of there did very well. The block was too strong.
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Don, was February 1989 one of those rare storms?
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This is for next Tuesday?
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Yes, a perfect example of the differences between our latitude and New England is March 2001. We had about 2-4 inches of snow here in March 2001, a major disappointment. But as soon as you got a few miles north, Bridgeport had like a foot of snow. Going east also helped, as parts of Suffolk County also had about a foot of snow.
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2002-03 was our last wall to wall winter, it's in a completely different category from this winter..... was that the last time we had DJFMA all colder than normal? I'm pretty sure it was the last time all of those months had snowfalls. It was only bested by 1995-96 when we had snowfalls in NDJFMA a record 6 months in a row.
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Being in New England will definitely guarantee results lol.
