NJwx85

If you’re looking for more than a sloppy couple of inches we will need stronger dynamics to help cool the BL. Still you’re looking at 33-34 degrees in the city during peak intensity. The better hope is that Sunday materializes.

6”+ on the GFS for the North and West of 287 crowd.

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

great run for metro and esp. N/W.  New England forum will be happy (er).

Edit:  Came too north for Metro - changes to rain.  Jumped the gun.

The only area that gets shafted is the immediate coastline, like the city, South shore of LI and far Eastern NJ.

Storm passes just South of LI and we dry slot by 12z Sunday.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Very amped

Newark is 33 degrees in that panel.

GFS is a big hit. Heavy snow North of I-78. CAD into the Northern burbs and North Shore. Philly proper is rain.

Looking like the 12z GFS will be less suppressed this run.

Snow ratios with this storm will be in the 6 or 8:1 range outside of the most intense banding. 

I’m a little surprised with how consistent the models have been this far out with the potential for this weekend. There’s a well positioned high and blocking which obviously opens the door for suppression. It looks like the heaviest snow will be interior Eastern PA and the mountains NW of DC and BWI. The 00z Euro is less suppressed looking than the GFS. Looks like there will be a sharp cut off either way around I-84.

Sideways rain here and some minor street flooding. Very windy.

This is the NAM's prediction for a few hours from now.

Still to come per the 18z HRRR

Absolutely unloading here in Ramsey, NJ.

Moderate to at times heavy rain again here in NW Bergen County.

Just now, Allsnow said:

Looks to be dying out mostly…

It's not. Rain is intensifying near Paramus and filling in.

7 minutes ago, EWRNJ said:

Looks like some echos showing up again over Jersey


.

Yup that is what I was referencing in my last post.

A new area of intense rain is developing West of the city over Southern Bergen County.

As many have said, this is far from over.

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This event looks over for anyone West of the city. Brooklyn and queens are in trouble 

The National Weather Service and just about every model disagrees with you.

The 12z HRDPS focuses the heaviest over Westchester and SW CT this afternoon. Sharp cutoff around the I-87/287 split.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

3K NAM is ugly

Was just going to post. It develops heavy convection again over some areas that are currently drying out.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah worst over by 3-4am just some leftover stuff after that

You do realize that's still like another 18 hours from now?

12k 12z NAM and still more to come after this.

2 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

For western areas it is pretty much done...No one really cares about light rain for the next 24 hours that adds up to under 1/2"

For everyone else, far from over... 

It's over for areas that were never supposed to get the big rains anyway.

4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

looks like we could get a break lessening of rain in the next hour or so

The rain is pivoting. All of the dynamics are still focused over the area.