NJwx85

IR has improved a lot. Shear looks like it has backed off.

https://x.com/drewshearer444/status/1700290188189077964?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

12z HAFS brings Lee back up to Cat 5 intensity tomorrow, hitting ~155kts (175 MPH) at 03z Sunday before an ERC on Sunday/Monday which dramatically expands the wind field.

Current :

vs

12z ECMWF with a Nova Scotia landfall on Sunday the 17th.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc further offshore

Still makes landfall in Nova Scotia. A little East of the GFS. 

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Westward short term adjustments to Lee don't increase US landfall probabilities much if it at all because they also delay latitude gain with the Great Lakes trough trending eastward and having a tendency to pull out of the northeast with time. 

The runs which hit land mostly have have the second trough lifting out and then the steering currents are left to the clockwise rotation around the high to the East. 

This run would be a big hit in Eastern Maine and Nova Scotia. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

High pressure popped up to the north where 6z had a low.

The second trough lifted out faster but it's still moving North due to the flow around the high to the East.

12z GFS looks headed for a landfall in either down east Maine or Nova Scotia. 

12z GFS is about 50-75 miles SW of the 06z position valid 00z Thursday.

The key is missing the first trough early next week. Most of the modeling that had an early recurve had Lee at least partially interacting with it. Also, the ridging over Eastern North America continues to trend stronger on the GFS.

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Looks that way. But no mainland impacts for the US

You had said way OTS, there's a big difference between way OTS and an impending landfall in Canada.

8 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Icon is way OTS this run. 

At 180hrs it appears headed for Canada?

The last four runs of the GFS valid 18z Monday have all ticked ever so slightly South with each consecutive run. Small run to run changes but an undeniable trend.

1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said:

Is there a forecast on when the shear is likely to decrease on Lee? 

It should decrease Saturday night and be gone by Sunday morning.

After looking rough for the last several hours, new towers are going up in the Western eyewall and the eye is looking better again.

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Lee isn't looking nearly as good this morning. A little shear on the western side?

You can see some Southerly shear on the SW side and of course it started an ERC.

The 06z HWRF indicates that Southerly shear will be present until early Sunday morning when an anti-cyclone is able to re-establish itself overhead. 

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It's not going to be a Cat 4 going through 68-73 degree waters

It’s not going to be purely tropical. Even 12z Euro shows it transitioning and deepening on final approach. 

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Totally understood, was just trying to convey I was not expecting it to stay at cat 4 / 5 levels for an extended period of time and certainly not to once north of the islands.  Would even be surprised if after the ERC is complete if it got back to near peak or peak. 

Once the wind field expands it probably won't be able to get back to cat 5 but it should remain a high end major for at least the next week or so.

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

It has to weaken, you are not going to keep this pristine environment that long.  Will be a huge wave and swell producer for east coast and Atlantic Canada but this is not going to hang onto cat 4 / 5 status once north of the Islands.  The environment and overall pattern does degrade.

Obviously, but that's not the reason for weakening in the next 5 days. The model is attempting to show the result of at least one ERC which massively expands the wind field. In fact the HAFS shows a new period of intensification beginning as the run ends.

ERC...

New eye emerging:

ERC complete:

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maine hit

Yup, and the system actually deepens while accelerating North from hrs 192 to 216. Huge wind field as well. Definitely undergoing transition on the way up. Looks like a movie I've seen before.

12z HAFS-A. If true, Lee will probably peak in intensity on Saturday or Sunday.

Check out how much the wind field increases from now until the end of the run.

14 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

 

Nearly 200mph max winds if it verified. 

Latest forecast cone calls for maintaining major status through the end of the forecast period and shows a slight bend back to a more Westerly track around day 4.

https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1699564711287681232?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

The developing system behind Lee is the new fly in the ointment. Too many moving parts right now to make a definitive fish call. 

Only out to 96hrs but the EPS has been trending stronger with the ridge over the Northeast and more amplified with the incoming trough.