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the ghost of leroy

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    Hurricane Zeta

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, kayman said:

    I have family in NOLA.  Katrina was a minimal Cat 3 with winds around 115-120 mph (sustained) when it hit NOLA in 2005.  However, it still had the storm surge of its previous Cat 5 intensity upon its landfall

    Katrina didn’t hit NOLA. It slid East. There is no evidence the city got anywhere near 115-120 sustained. Power failures led to fewer reports than average but the consensus was cat1, maybe cat 2 winds for the city itself. 

    Hurricane Zeta

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

    Honestly, I'm going to go crazy and forecast this thing becomes a moderate Cat 2. None of the intensity guidance shows that, and I care 0%. The environment is excellent and I don't see dry air entrainment. The eyewall that's developing is solid, and I actually think the outer bands are helpful in keeping the interior of the system more stable. Less chance for some unknown shear to work in, less chance for extra dry air to work in. Whatever happens here, it will absolutely beat the intensity guidance. As for why the guidance is low, few possible reasons but frankly my best guess is low initial intensity. I've watched the guidance forecasts all season and they rise and fall in line with the ingested initial intensity. The thing is, it does NOT take THAT much to get a storm to grow stronger in a low shear, high water temp, moist environment, and you have better than chance odds by betting above the model consensus.  If the eye feature closes off, which it looks poised to do, ya know, go nuts. 

     

    As I've said all along, I'm definitely most interested in what this thing does inland when it phases with the continental low ejecting from the rockies. Very Isaias/Sandy-esq in the sense of baroclinic interaction maintaining strength for a LONG time. This storm won't produce 40" in a single spot, but the phasing is going to mean tens of millions of americans are going to see significant impacts from these storms. 2, 4, 6" of rain, some areas a couple feet of snow...these are large totals and will cause widespread spatially, but not dense, power failures, flooding, wind damage, etc over a HUGE swath of the eastern CONUS. Obviously you're also ingesting a bunch of vorticity, and if you take that, add some moisture, jet streak and a strong llj, you'll see a touch more tornado potential than with your average hurricane. Whenever a barotropic system phases with a baroclinic system, things get interesting. 

     

    MU

    Red state sandy

    • Like 2
    • Haha 2
    • Weenie 1

    2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

    Hi! Been asked a question:  Trying to save a little time... if someone here has an answer, could you reply.  Thank you.

    2005?  Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28?  Which is correct?  Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28?

    Walt

    there was an unnamed storm

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Azores_subtropical_storm

    • Thanks 2

    2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    11 hours ago, Prospero said:

    I do try to contribute quality more than raise an eyebrow now and then speaking what is truly on my mind. But hey, Truth (or possible Truth) is and has always been a scary and dangerous concept. We could go back hundreds of years and see examples of "conspiracy theories" being denied that were true and angered people only to learn in history how true they turned out to be. Even the weather modification experiments in the 60s were conspiracy theories until they were acknowledged.

    I'll try to be more conservative. ;)

    I love this forum and hope I do not get banned altogether. GOL (ghost of leroy) is still here, so maybe I'll be OK even though on an ever growing list of ignores...

     

    6 hours ago, Prospero said:

    Thanks TradeWinds, Florida neighbor.

    I've been involved in internet forums since the 90's, alt this and alt that. I've been checked so many times I can't count. But manners are important, and timing is everything. When the discussions are barely active there is room for more personal input, like where to go for Sushi, etc., or occasional far-out ideas. But I do get excited when things are active and have posted inappropriately after a few beers when people are scrambling for their lives as a hurricane is approaching. I am not trying to be on ignore lists, and it hurts my "feeling" (as a good friend used to joke with me), but learning the expectations of any social environment is just part of growing up and belonging to a group. If I am ignored, it is my own fault. Someone making a point of it publicly may or may not be seeking attention, it may be directed totally at me to "behave" which I get. My skin is thick, by experience! When I get to the point of not learning or taking criticism, then I am trouble.

    Second part, in Tampa Bay we've been in so many models with powerful storms predicted several days out that we are getting numb. That is foolish, as this is 2020 and only mid-October. We do know we may be preparing for a storm even up to Thanksgiving. But it is weird we have not been in an actual Tropical Storm or Hurricane warning this year. That might even make it more likely we could get slammed at the last minute to fully complete 2020. (Ooooops crazy talk again!)

    :)

     

    5 hours ago, Prospero said:

    We've had TS winds at moments and gusts several times here at 50+ mph with some of the storms, a few mild storm surges, and beautiful roller waves several times from several Gulf storms. We were in five-day cones a few times, but never a warning.

    18z GFS has the latest storm going over Cuba and out to sea. But each day brings new models.

    Funny how the models always have perfect eyes. That is the problem with the models, the computers don't know how to throw a fly into the mix. Especially in 2020 with perfect eyes being so rare with random flies always messing them up.

     

    Your biggest problem is all these paragraphs. That’s the real reason people want to ignore you. If you are efficiently conspiratorial people won’t care. 

    • Haha 1

    Delta Banter Thread

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

    Because seeding doesn't work. They thought StormFury was working, then they figured out EWRCs and dry air intrusions were a thing.

    If “they” were trying again they wouldn’t tell “us”. Too many national security and bad press implications. 
     

    I am not sure we should give up on geoengineering and messing with hurricanes just because a mid 20th century program was a failure. 

    • Like 1

    Major Hurricane Delta

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
    28 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:
    Yeah,the point being, it was basically assumed before the past couple years that landfalling gulf canes were half-canes

     

    Those folks had short memories. Even after Camille, Frederic and Alicia weren't that long ago and made landfall with closed eyewalls. At any rate, Delta likely will not be a good example of a closed eyewall at landfall by any stretch. Unless 2020 deals to us something completely wack.

    I forget which piece of research it was and it’s probably a decade old, but the conclusion that I read that stuck with me is that upon approach,  weak hurricanes tend to strengthen the most and strong hurricanes tend to weaken the most and 85-95 knots is kinda the sweet spot for the NGOM

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