the ghost of leroy

This isn’t 2006. Stop using the NHC floaters and use tropical tidbits. 

Lol another failed mission because of something breaking on the plane. 

18 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

That’s on the cusp of category 4 strength. If this intensity gets even close to verifying, Eta will be the strongest hurricane to have made landfall in Nicaragua. Believe hurricane Otto made landfall in Nicaragua in 2016 as a 115mph category 3 — currently the strongest landfall in Nicaragua history. 

I think you are forgetting hurricane Joan 88 but don’t care enough to verify. You should look it up tho

This is why I say things like Laura is trash 

Just now, Amped said:

Looks like Virac will get in the Eye.  

Hope the wx station holds up. Let’s see if they have get a sub 890 reading

What a banger

Low key better than Patricia 

God the troichs on that one

1 hour ago, Prospero said:

Maybe a naive question, but we are on 96L. Does that mean this season stared with 1L?

Yup it’s just like the 18 Covids 

I’m surprised they are running back Goni. It should have been retired last cycle because that storm was a banger. Anyways, this one looks good too. It’s nice to see red meat in the WPAC

Just now, SnowLover22 said:

At least no sign of levee failure so far which is great news. 

You would’ve been a hoot an hour or two after Katrina blew through 

Best storm of the season. This one is a ripper. 

2 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

50 foot wave hit offshore platform. There is apparent video on Twitter. 

I posted the video a page or two back

An actual wx station reading 94 sustained is pretty impressive for a cat 2. In fact that’s the best evidence we have for a cat 3 designation, IMO. 

Damn these are nice waves. Making the coastal waters of the GOM look like the North Atlantic or Bering sea

Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

NHC director is currently live on facebook giving an update.

 

 

I’m not signing up for the mark of the beast just to hear about a decaying cat 2

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Is that normal?  I haven't been tracking hurricanes long but it seems like every hurricane this year had an open/weak south side as it moved north onto the gulf shore.

Classic halfacane

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Okay so they dont follow the rules of significant figures and if they measured 112 or even 111 it would be reported as 115 in the public advisory?

 

I suggest you file a public complaint and let us know what they have to say about the rules of math. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

50 ft season near shore

I saw that earlier. Anyone an expert on near shore wave heights? I saw the associated graph and it looks so extreme that I wonder whether it is an instrument error. 

Just now, wizard021 said:

Well I am not telling everyone to disregard the NHC, it is just my personal preference to not listen to them. No hard feelings.

Few, if any, care about your personal batshit preferences as to whether this is 5kt stronger than the NHC says it is. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This has nothing to do with politics, but the simple fact that wind measurements aren't accurate enough to separate a Cat 2 110 mph storm from a Cat 3 111 mph storm and wind measurements are rounded to the nearest 5 mph anyway.  But like the other poster said, this is likely to be upgraded later anyway.

Let’s just call it an Australian cat 4 because that way nobody is wrong. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It's Cat 3....111 weird lower threshold for Cat 3 should be 110 since all measurements get rounded to nearest 5 mph anyway.

A better solution would be to get rid of mph and speak in terms of knots. It’s all very nice and clean when we do that. 

People will focus on New Orleans but the MGC is where we could have more interesting water issues. At least unlike Laura will have a nice way to benchmark the water since it’s not all bayou and Camille and Katrina both had well documented surges there. 

The levees will probably be fine but referencing what they are designed to handle or have prevented before doesn’t seem like the way to go. If they do fail it will not be because of their specs, it will be because of an unknown defect. Our infrastructure sucks. Something could fail unexpectedly just like Katrina. 

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

132 kts at the 942 mb level! I'd absolutely go with 115 mph now.

I’d go 95 kts. Need a stronger dropsonde since surface is barely 100 and that’s not even measuring sustained winds.