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the ghost of leroy

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Everything posted by the ghost of leroy

  1. the ghost of leroy
    This is 100kts?
  2. the ghost of leroy
    Lol 115kts. Seriously.
  3. the ghost of leroy
    people can read the posts and decide themselves about the hype. it's all love, man. i like your posts. but i am just staking out a strong position. the storm is increasingly looking like crap, the JTWC forecast is loltastic, and japan can handle it.
  4. the ghost of leroy
    everyone knows i am ridiculous. that's irrelevant, though. i am also usually right. 3 hours ago you said this: The center may be slightly tilted as well. Southerly flow is screaming. This is still an intense typhoon though. I am a bit worried this won't weaken more than 15-20 kts prior to landfall ue to rapid forward motion. this will definitely be wrong. by a bunch.
  5. the ghost of leroy
    I just do not see what your point is here. Who has made a call this will landfall as a Super Typhoon? Look at the forecast. It's still serious for Japan. japan is going to be just fine. they have great building codes...and look at the satellite, dude...its pooping out.
  6. the ghost of leroy
    tbh i think you have, mildly.
  7. the ghost of leroy
    Good thing that's not how we alert the public. You don't downplay a 135kt cyclone. Yes, the core may degrade to absolute crap landfall. You want to base your advisory on that call. Have you ever been in a Cat 2/3 storm? This will be destructive. Hopefully it will weaken an that destruction will be mitigated. you can totally downplay a 135kt storm that is in the middle of the ocean. what matters is what it is when it hits something. and when it hits something it's going to be pretty run of the mill....maybe even garden variety (shout out to my hurricane nate weenies). i'll be fine with eating a fat plate of crow if it turns out to be a disaster.
  8. the ghost of leroy
    just passionate about not overhyping
  9. the ghost of leroy
    let's just leave it be for now and we can see how it plays out. i am still on team "blustery day with lots of twitter videos of waves".
  10. the ghost of leroy
    Perhaps in 8-10 hrs, but the perspective that it's falling apart based on current satellite presentation isn't good sound meteorology. We all knew the system was going to weaken based on the environement. But Lan isn't exactly hot garbage. lan is definitely hot garbage and has been for its entire existence. the WPAC is the land of gods. show some respect to real legendary typhoons. let this one go. 135kt max and extratropical turning crap into japan is zzzzz
  11. the ghost of leroy
    you've got way too much faith in this system. just throw on the loop. this is going to look terrible in 8-10 hours.
  12. the ghost of leroy
    The center may be slightly tilted as well. Southerly flow is screaming. This is still an intense typhoon though. I am a bit worried this won't weaken more than 15-20 kts prior to landfall ue to rapid forward motion. i don't know, man...it's really going downhill the last few frames
  13. the ghost of leroy
    this is a classic case of the euro's tendency to overdeepen storms in the WPAC at that latitude. it did the same thing with NORU earlier this season and LIONROCK last year. it's late october, nothing that strong and that tropical is hitting that far N into japan.
  14. the ghost of leroy
    sorry, but bleh. there is nothing interesting about a future blown out typhoon. gimme something hot that is heading due west.
  15. the ghost of leroy
    felix is the best example for sure. for those that don't remember, look at the TCHP off the landfall zone in nicaragua prior to the storm...
  16. the ghost of leroy
    Good post. I agree that speed was perhaps the biggest detriment. It maybe could have gotten to 100kts or so had it just been moving at a more routine pace.
  17. the ghost of leroy
    It could just be different gust methodology. Like 3sec vs 10sec or something. Fujita did make the best maps, though. I'd love to get my hands on some of his stuff for framing purposes. They are flat out art.
  18. the ghost of leroy
    ^A vessel docked inland on one of the rivers recorded 120 sustained but it was a bit above 10m if I remember correctly. I think the areas that received the highest winds weren't sampled, and even if they were I am not sure how Fujita would have distinguised between wind and surge damage since the worst of both were likely collocated.
  19. the ghost of leroy
    Best city on earth
  20. the ghost of leroy
    i'll probably head out towards salina once i get off work
  21. the ghost of leroy
    You headed out to chase today?
  22. the ghost of leroy
    That's gotta be a gut punch for Josh.
  23. the ghost of leroy
    it's not going to stop at the sparsely populated coast. i shouldnt have to explain that tropical cyclones have inland effects, especially when we consider mountainous terrain and poor people. this is TC's 101.
  24. the ghost of leroy
    nonevent in terms of what? even if the eyewall crosses the coast in an area of sparse population the circulation is large and it will likely dump a ton of rain, causing flooding and mudslides. i wouldn't downplay it yet.
  25. the ghost of leroy
    should be interesting for him. i think his only luzon chase so far was NARI 2013.
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