hlcater

morning convection, while weak, has slowed progression of warm front significantly. Therefore all the storms near the border and north of the border will remain elevated for the duration of the event. Any tornado potential resides on outflow boundary along US 2.

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Slight risk added from NE IA through NE WI on the new day 1 with marginal surrounding that. Pretty big change especially IA which for the most part wasn't even in the general storm area. Also marginal expanded northward in S IL and S OH.

HRRR and several other CAMs seem to be alluding to a chance for a few elevated supercells/hailers this evening and overnight. We'll see how that goes.

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be going to Iceland from July 7-15th. Might have an outside chance at some snow?

Iceland is on my (relatively long) list of places I need to visit. Absolutely stunning place. I’m almost sure you’ll enjoy it!

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

The couplets looked pretty nice on radar, nice and tight.  Problem is though the lowest beam height is over 5500ft out that way.  

That storm was a wall cloud party, I was there. Issue was that there were 2 separate surface circulations and both kept spitting out wall clouds and neither became dominant over the other. What we get then is a whole bunch of wall clouds that lack the "umpf" to get it done. What was interesting is that I initially started in Mason City and bagged a brief bird fart tornado up there. Only issue with these storms was that everything was super HP, apparently there were more tornadoes, but I couldn't see them. Then as those storms went outflow dominant, came back to CR for a bit before the Tama storm initiated, then headed back out again. This storm was thankfully more classic in nature and around sunset which made it better. All in all, pretty solid chase today.

Forest City bird fart tornado(if you look closely you can see debris above the road sign):

Pretty nice whales mouth near Mason City:

and just one of the MANY wall clouds the storm near Tama/Belle Plaine produced.

Yea I’m up in Mason City waiting to bust. HRRR has a completely awful handle on the current situation. Not resolving tstms in MN well at all.

what a weird polygon.

Looks like the next several days are going to be quite conducive to MCSs across the sub. Some people don't like MCSs, but I for one will never turn them down. (unless its at 9 AM washing out severe weather, thats always fun.) Maybe a shot at something early on in the day Saturday and especially Sunday out here. However, because it's 2018, any formidable speed shear just doesn't exist, so neither day looks like anything more than a mesoscale day.

8 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

No talk of tomorrow? 

 

ND looks good tomorrow and eyeing srn MN myself on Wednesday 

Tomorrow looks decent, but I think wednesday looks likely to grow upscale into an MCS rather quickly. 

Maybe I'm thinking too much into this, but I'm extremely interested if there's a relationship between the behavior of 2010s severe wx as a whole, and the late 1980s, and you could probably even include the early 30s and late 40s as well. All of these periods where characterized by low tornado counts, and many of these years were also fighting drought conditions in at least some part of the plains/midwest. Seems to be a distinct spacial correlation between these periods, almost like a 20-30 year oscillation. But correlation isn't causation. I wish someone smart would do a research paper into this, I think there might be something there.

5 minutes ago, Animal said:

Apparently more rain& wind the next few days!

Wrong thread? 

17/7/2

(May: 1/0/0)

June: 2/1/0

July: 3/1/1

August: 2/1/0

September: 3/2/0

October: 5/2/1

November: 1/0/0

Just gotta wait out the rest of this garbage decade. There’s been some good stretches, but as a whole, it’s sucked pretty bad.

CFS dash generally likes June, but after the season so far, not seeing any reason to be remotely optimistic about anything 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

This season as a whole is sorta reminiscent of some of those paltry 1980s years.

I found this graph/chart interesting. It is only active tornado days in Kansas, but with there seems to be a clear oscillation in activity in the limited data set we have.

1 hour ago, largetornado said:

Some of the soundings for sunday along the warm front are encouraging. Mid level flow is a little weaker than ideal but 40-45 kts would get the job done. Excellent turning from 0-1 with good speed shear. It looks chasable to me. 

 

 

I think that is contaminated. If you look at reflectivity(or MSLP) on the 12z NAM, you'll see that the NAM has a pretty significant looking MCS barreling down the warm front at 00z. All the soundings pulled ahead of this MCS(adjacent counties) are likely influenced by the convectively induced area of low pressure associated with the complex. This locally enhances wind profiles in the inflow region immediately in front of the MCS. The sounding I included is east of Champaign, and is probably more representative of the warm frontal environment on the NAM, which is still sufficient if you ask me.

EDIT: that large area of subsidence from 850-500mb may also key into this area being an inflow region, however I am not sure on that one.

14 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Newer runs are trying to push it back til Monday

umm no? That's a separate event. I'm talking west for IA and MO. The Sunday event and maybe monday?(idk it looks like garbage to me) are different setups on different days that just happen to involve the same boundary. The NAM/GFS have backed off a bit for Saturday, but still looks okay.

NAM/GFS 12z runs look nice along the warm front on Saturday, but the position and to a degree, the orientation of this boundary is still up in the air.

That 12z euro was TERRIBLE. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse 10 day run.

5 hours ago, largetornado said:

Legit question...Will we even see 600 tornadoes this year? At 320ish now. 

Probably. We aren’t at record lows(yet) and still have the rest of may, June and July to go. Shots at 1000 closing fast. Best guess I have right now is 800-900

Guys! The ERTAF is showing some hope in the long range!

http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/

Well the primary jet really likes the northern conus and Canada, so I think sustained periods of AOA 40kts flow over the plains will be hard to come by. Thinking “day-of” events, upslope and boundaries are going to rule the 2nd half of may. However, with sufficient moisture and instability, this can work.

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Old name made more sense to me at least.  I have no idea what the hell hlcater is lol.

First 2 initials and last name. Probably shoulda clarified that lol.

Changed my name to hlcater because quite frankly, my old one isn't really very practical any more, and probably never will be. This one is much more versatile.

ummmm

The triple point looks interesting in Iowa tomorrow. SPC even has a 10% hatched there on the D2. Of course triple point concerns apply, upscale growth, storm motions into the cool sector etc. but if it looks good enough, I’ll see if I can find time to head to south central Iowa tomorrow. Regardless, convection seems to organize into 1 or 2 MCSs with time.

2nd week of may looks to be dominated by a pretty hefty ridge in the west based on both operational models and their ensembles. Not sure how long it’ll be after this trough early week. I’d hedge to say that it’s gonna be quiet for at least 5 days after that.