hlcater

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

F...

It might just be me, but there seem to be quite a few similarities from where we are now to the winter of 14-15. Especially in the Pacific.

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I thought it died in 2016...

You can bet its back 

10 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Last year we didn't see a flake until Christmas Eve, so we're already ahead of that although it has still been an awful lot of early cold with little precipitation. Last winter it turned brutally cold on Christmas and stayed that way for most of January with hardly any precipitation. We squeezed out a few minor snow events in early February but got most of our totals in March and April, go figure.

At this point I really don't care what winter does, as long as it finds a way to lead into a considerably more active severe/chase season than the last couple.

The blob says no.

There is a real possibility that we see under 2" of snow through the end of the month. Models have reallyyyyy backed off any sort of real change between the 20th and 25th, dragging on the suckage to almost new years.

Just now, RogueWaves said:

Dude, you have your opinion. Fine. We all do. My post merely stated facts, nothing else. Wasn't a sales pitch for him or you. Move on pls

ummmmm ok? Seems like we're getting worked up over trivialities here.

I've said this before but..... Bastardi sucks.

One thing consistent on the deterministic GFS and the GEFS is that big dump of cold air as a result of the -EPO around Christmas.

Yea that advertised pattern change can’t come soon enough. Out here in IA, I can’t remember the last time the first half of December was any good. Seem to always find our way into a bad pattern.

37 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Sure there are in the geographic carving of this board, I never said there weren't.  I said density.  You also said NE AND Mid Atlantic.  Combining the East coast bias of this board (it was originally Eastern Wx and manifest destined its way west to American Wx) with the fact that due to natural storm tracks a single event will tend to affect a greater population of the subs you mention than a single event in this sub. You're naturally going to get more IMBY posts from those subs.  The late Nov. storm here was boring IMBY but was a big deal to the NW.  A gulf hurricane such as Michael will affect nearly every state in the SE sub.  The tornadoes of 2013 here only affected parts of 2 states for the most part yet it was one of the biggest fall tornado outbreaks in history.  I mean just the NYC sub has almost twice as many posts as all the other subs, is their weather all that exciting?  Density, IMBY posts.  Perhaps I misunderstood your Midwest is boring comment.

2

lol I love that

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe you meant New England instead of West?  

Yea the central/west is a ghost town. Even on big severe days there's really only 9 or 10 people that post. Same goes for winter, just a largely different set. By far the quietest sub. 

I like the slower threads here, to be honest. This place has some good posters with lots of good things to say. Whereas in some of those big threads that are flying at a mile per minute, lots of the people with good, constructive things to say get drowned out by people that seem like they're just posting for the sake of posting. I'd rather have quality over quantity. Not saying there aren't good posters over there(because there are) but it seems like they're the minority -- especially in bigger events.

52 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah if he thinks the UP is boring, he needs drive across Iowa or Nebraska.

Hey now

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Gotta wonder what this exact setup would've done with spring time thermodynamics at the surface. Not even necessarily "prime" spring time thermodynamics, I'm talking like 67-71 T/60-64 Td here. 00z ILX sounding had a classic sickle shaped hodograph with over 400 m2/s2 ESRH, with most of that concentrated in the 0-1 km layer, not to mention 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE. Pretty solid mid level lapse rates ~7.5 C/km as well thanks to 500 mb temps below -20˚C, that was the key here.

Should note that none of the global models had surface winds even close to that strongly backed over the area.

CAMs underestimated the backing as well. They only caught up after the event was underway.

Idk about you, but the SE quad yesterday was far better than the cold sector.

What a massive tornado...

The storm that produced the taylorville tornado just produced another. Chaser reports powerflashes.

I should clarify, I was talking about reed saying that is the same tornado 13 miles N of town. I definitely think they got walloped. Wasn't saying they didnt.

I doubt it lasted through Taylorville. Looked like a pretty clear cycle.

Decatur storm just dropped another one.

Devin Pitts just told me he saw at least 10 tornadoes today. Wow.

Another tight couplet with debris southwest of Decatur. Looks like the storm completed the cycle.

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This is about to be bad. Huge debris ball and intense couplet heading right into Taylorville. 

Occluded right over town. 

This is about to be bad. Huge debris ball and intense couplet heading right into Taylorville.