hlcater
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Everything posted by hlcater
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fringe radar image suggests maybe a larger eye trying to take over/absorb the 4nmi wide eye. Regardless, I think intensification is probably done for now. Remains to be seen whether it resumes later.
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As expected, the inner core/eyewall is a mess.
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Next plane looks to be wheels up at 00z with nearly continuous coverage overnight.
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Why are we shitting on Jim Edds lol. The dude knows more about hurricanes than the vast majority of us. Not only that, the call wasn't even that bullish. Bullish for sure but not impossible.
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8am eastern, 7am central
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That shear is probably why the core is messy. Per GFS soundings, shear decreases again tonight and through landfall. Landfall is ~12z tomorrow so we've got one more diurnal max to really make it. First landfall call for me is 916mb/145kt. EDIT: I'll add the core being messy now is bad news for cancun. We won't get an EWRC with a messy core.
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If the eye closes, clears and there isn’t an EWRC, it may be possible. Gotta keep in mind we’ve got a -80 ring and we’re already at 140/956 even with the core being a mess.
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Only think that throws a wrench in this now is an EWRC. With such a small eye, something to watch for. But the storm is equally small so who knows.
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This thing is TINY. 6nm wide eye and a hurricane force wind diameter of maybe 15-20nm. Still strengthening in earnest and that CDO is freezing cold. If the eye closes and pops, pressure is gonna free fall I think.
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no
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You would've saved calories by not posting this.
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This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. I dont know if a strike to Cancun or Cozumel weakens it much. That area is completely flat and it will have a quick forward speed at that point spending probably less than 6 hours over land.
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Very impressive pass overall. ~55kts on both sides of the eye and an obvious inner core already present. Eye and max wind radii is very small as well. If you're looking for RI, a configuration like this going into Dmax is probably how to get it.
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cue excitement. ~985 extrap, 55kts and a nice inner core structure in the NW quad.
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Yea I know
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SteveCop bringing the hype. Expecting no less than 900mb in 24hrs.
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PTC 26 is on the way.
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I’m pretty bullish on this one relatively speaking so went ahead and made a thread.
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About time for this one. Models are already fairly robust with 92L with the majority reaching hurricane strength and a good chunk with major status. Environment through D4 is just about as good as it gets, so the intensity ceiling is probably quite high on this one relatively speaking. Cool water, shear and dry air should ensure weakening by landfall at least.
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92L looks mildly interesting in the medium term. Should have a nice anticyclone/outflow pattern... in the W carib in October.
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Probably gonna be a big winter for tornadoes and severe weather across the SE.
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lives were SAVED on 3/28
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the 2020 severe season started and ended in 45 minutes. 4/7 was okay locally, and 5/23 was fair. But the census for this season yields 2 mediocre severe events, and one exceptional one. I'd honestly trade the derecho for more/better tornado days than we had this year.
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