BGM Blizzard

Didnt hear or see anything and I'm 3 miles away. But hard to hear with fireplace fan going. I saw they mentioned thundersnow reports in recent AFD. We probably had close to 3"/hour rates at times this morning. About 6 inches here so far.

All snow now at my house in western Broome.

Latest BGM update saying 2-4"/hour rates possible within meso band.

Looks like bombogenesis is set to occur with >=24mb drop between now and this time tomorrow... like 990 to 966 roughly. Likely going to be an intense meso band somewhere from southern tier to northeast NY. Any bets on thundersnow occurring somewhere within the band? Its a shame this thing is rocketing along else this could have rivaled the March 2017 blizzard.

Have a hard time believing it doesnt ping atleast to I-81 if a primary low advances into Ontario Province. Strong HP good for keeping surface below freezing so plain rain shouldnt be a problem outside of maybe far W NY, but models always seem to underestimate warm nose somewhere in the 700-850mb layers and seen it ping many a times in these situations even with air temp of 19 degrees. 540 decameter line is usually a decent quick and dirty estimate of where can expect atleast some mixing issues to enter equation. Best chance for 6+ across E NY.

Might push 60 down here. If it ain't snowing might as well be able to wear shorts and tee shirt. GFS also has a dry slot with only .2 of total qpf to boot. Win-win.

Not much doin so far. Started as a mix of Frz Rain and Sleet right out of gate and changed to snow around 6pm. Only about 1-1.5" so far. Rates have been mostly light and flake size has been small and granular.

Man that 2"+ finger is right over my head. UK or bust!

Could see some 20+ lolli's somewhere in the BGM-Utica-ALB triangle... likely the northern catskills.

Wow GFS and UK put BGM near sweet spot. Lock it in!

Euro east for tomorrow storm. Pretty much a non event even for BGM and ALB. Looks like the GFS wins this time.

12z GFS had a real bomb at Day 7. Yes please.

Between 8 and 9 inches here. Rates are up and down. Figuring around 12 here for a total maybe little more if we get lucky to stay all snow and avoid any dry slotting.

Yeah Capital District has been sweet spot on most of the model outputs that I've seen thus far. I foresee jackpots in the high terrain along the I-88 corridor.

Looks like pretty good odds the mixing makes it into lower central ny for a time barring a shift back to the s/e in consensus track. O well. Nice to see a pattern shift on the horizon at last.

Too bad it's the GFS. Canadian and Euro are non events. Yawn.

Love mud season in January. It better come down hard and often from mid Jan on or this will be another epic dud similar to 2015-16 atleast around these parts. Crushed the all time record that year with only 26 inches against 83 inch average. I'll give it few more weeks for a turnaround to begin materializing before giving up and pulling for an early spring haha.

Mainly sleet here now. Bgm saying in latest update that mix line advancing into finger lakes and cortland county atleast.

Few pingers mixing in as of few minutes ago. Probably 80-90% snow still however

Pouring white right now. Major rates. Wonder if anyone will get a side order of thunder at some point?

Not totally sure if meso band crossing pa into NY is all snow but about to find out shortly. Some pretty bright returns showing up.

I tend to think that is overdone in a lot of spots and likely counting sleet as 10:1 snow esp east of the appalachians

NAM insistent on warm layer getting to Bgm at 700mb and 850mb for either mixing or change to sleet for several hour period in evening. Thinking around 6 inches here.

Haven't been expecting anything from this midweek event and the NAM is probably just being the NAM, but 0z 12km run is nothing but a middle finger. A whopping 0" here in BGM but only about 40 miles from to the 12" line.

Messaged my friend at BGM that wrote the afd update. Nws did the core sample to calculate that ratio. Possibility of wind blowing some extra over the can but it has a wind shield on it so wind likely didn't do much to disturb it. So pretty legit.