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BGM Blizzard

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  1. BGM Blizzard
    Thur-Fri storm only for precip and 10:1. Kuchera running total at the bottom... Precip 10:1 Kuchera running total
  2. BGM Blizzard
    Mon-Tue storm only for precip and 10:1. Kuchera running total at the bottom... Precip 10:1 Kuchera running total
  3. BGM Blizzard
    The SLP track for Tuesday main event is pretty close to 0z but forward speed definitely several hours faster. This thing hauls ass from GA to Nantucket in 14 hours which is probably a contributing factor to the QPF reduction.
  4. BGM Blizzard
    I added 6z run in now too. It's definitely a reduction for most places.
  5. BGM Blizzard
    12z precip is a bit of a cut back from the wet 0z and 6z runs. Here a compare for Mon-Tue only... 12z 6z 0z
  6. BGM Blizzard
    12z Euro SLP a tad SE of 6z but not much. It's definitely a bit faster though.
  7. BGM Blizzard
    Overrunning precip looks much better for BUF cwa. I think they'll do a long duration WSW for the 24 hour criteria. For BGM cwa, the Finger Lake to Oneida County zones will probably get enough overrunning precip justify starting the WSW early for the 24 hour criteria as well to match the BUF border zones. Further SE from Elmira to Catskills will probably only meet the 12 hour criteria and get a later/shorter WSW once potential mixing issues get resolved.
  8. BGM Blizzard
    Really just all depends who writes it. Some mets def put more effort into it. BGM WCM Dave Nicosia and Senior Forecaster Mark Pellerito are the 2 best for BGM imo.
  9. BGM Blizzard
    6z Euro precip for Mon-Tues. Very slight SE nudge from 0z.
  10. BGM Blizzard
    Agreed. My initial thought earlier this week was BGM might have mixing issues moreso with the Thur-Fri storm but might be the other way around. That said, don't think the Thur-Fri storm is locked in at all yet and could be some significant adjustments still especially once this lead storm on mon-tues is out of the way.
  11. BGM Blizzard
    0z EPS for Thur-Fri. Similar to the OP, there is a bit less precip across the board vs. 12z... Running 10:1 total on the member spread...
  12. BGM Blizzard
    0z EPS for Mon-Tues. Near identical to 12z and a slight bump SE of 18z...
  13. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah elevation and geography can definitely result in kuchera ratio being closer to accurate than 10:1.
  14. BGM Blizzard
    I think it's usually overdone most times. My unscientific observation is that the actual ratio usually ends up somewhere in the middle between 10:1 and Kuchera for events that exceed the normal 10:1. That's why I usually post precip maps so people can draw their own conclusions and recalculate a different accumulation for somewhere in the middle.
  15. BGM Blizzard
    0z EC for Thur-Fri is near identical SLP track to 12z but drier... Thur-Fri precip and 10:1... Kuchera running total...
  16. BGM Blizzard
    Pre-monday Kuchera... Post-main event Kuchera/12z Wednesday...
  17. BGM Blizzard
    Wow, sure is. Much wetter than 12z and a slight bump NW in track. We walk the taint line here in BGM, verbatim... Mon-Tue precip and 10:1...
  18. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah well outside 48 hours. Take it with a grain for sure.
  19. BGM Blizzard
    12 hour precip for 12z Mon to 0z Tues. Generally 50-150% increase most places. 18z 0z
  20. BGM Blizzard
    0z Nam is coming in juiced for the Monday overrunning event vs 18z run
  21. BGM Blizzard
  22. BGM Blizzard
    I posted that earlier when you asked about Monday precip. Only goes to 90 hours/12z Tues...
  23. BGM Blizzard
    Nah there no kuchera option for the EPS unfortunately.
  24. BGM Blizzard
    18z EPS mean for mon-tue shifted NW again vs 12z. The odds of the BGM to ALY corridor experiencing some mixing issues for atleast part of this storm continue to trend up.
  25. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah the overrunning on Monday will probably be light enough and followed by a several hour break before the main event moves in Monday night/Tuesday such that the WFOs will probably issue WSW for just the main event in order to meet the 7"/12 hour criteria.
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