Icy Hot

Huge storm. Can't decide if it is shaped more like a tornado or an ostrich.

5 hours ago, Math/Met said:

The 98 snowstorm in NE TN was probably my favorite weather event of all time. I didn’t realize that Kingsport missed it. I know Greene County, Washington County, and other spots along the mountains got hammered.  Incredible snowfall rates with that system and by far the biggest snowflakes I’ve ever seen (in person or video). I really wish someone had video from that event. I’ve looked several times but never found any footage.

I think I still do. Flakes looked like chicken feathers.

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Robert just made a great post on Facebook about the possible threat and what lies ahead.

Robert who? Where is the link?

2 minutes ago, ajr said:

Random but why is the GFS still active? I thought it was supposed to change to the FV3 by now?

The government shut down had delayed it.

3 hours ago, gman said:

Interesting rain totals from Walhalla State Fish Hatchery in Oconee County. http://digital.olivesoftware.com/Olive/ODN/PostCourier/TranslateArticle.aspx?doc=POCO%2F2019%2F01%2F03&entity=ar00305&ts=20190103063911&uq=20181102125203

Requires a username and password

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

All right....final call for January. Not even gonna look at the Weeklies...they are probably not gonna be pretty.   My seasonal forecast is slightly AN for December, normalish for Jan, and BN for Feb.

Right now this is a GEFS/GEPS vs EPS battle in the LR.  They are basically the exactly opposite w the EPS having a trough in the West and ridge in the East w the ridge maybe lifting out late... if extrapolated(basically a real crap show if you like winter...let's be honest....it is ugly...LOL).  The GEFS/GEPS is a weak trough in eastern NA w nice blocking over the top on the GEFS.  No model has sustained, signifiant cold air over the EC of the Lower 48...If the GEFS is to be believed, the cold lurks in Canada.  Basically, I think modeling is juggling so much stuff(see earlier posts), that I am going with climatology for the back half of the month and ensembles for the first half.

So, with all of that in mind...I am betting on a pattern flip.  When this potential happens makes the month very difficult to forecast.  So here is my best shot, and it may just be flat-out wrong in the end.  

January Temps

Week 1: AN

Week 2: much AN

Week 3: (transition week w the flip late in the week) normal to slightly AN

Week 4: BN (might be well below)

Overall month: Slightly AN with the assumption that the last 1/3 of January goes stone cold and erases significant warmth on the front end.  Right now that is a hunch with not a lot of model support.  Basically going to ride Nino climatology and bet that the SSW does its dirty work in terms of blocking.  Also, going to ride with the work that John has done regarding the November/January cold relationship.  I don't have to do this for a living so I can gamble a bit.   But I am going to bet the flip.

January Snowfall

This is always a total crapshoot.  I am going to go normal w a big storm to end the month and begin the new pattern.  I am still bullish about February w slightly AN.

Final note:  I also see a path to where this winter could be AN the rest of the way.  94-95 is a decent analog.  I also remember 89-90(Nina?) and I can't discount it since some indices such as the SOI have long term trends w Nina climatology.  So when in doubt...I am riding w weak Nino climatology which is a backloaded winter.  

So basically, we will know the weather when we stick our heads out the window.

76 in Colonial Heights as winds howl out of the south.

27 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Maybe, but waiting for winter to start is hard.  It sucks wasting half of the winter.  At least we’re not torching.  It’s just unfortunate that there is no cold air anywhere nearby.

Don't forget, today is only the 7th day of winter. Lots of opportunities still to come.

38 now and snow is mixing with rain.

Colonial Heights went from 46 to 42 in last hour. Driving rain at the present.

Hey Carvers, care to share the map you are referring to?

Wrap around is here. Although  radar shows rain, it is moderate snow and 33 in the Heights!

Dry slot is slowly working its way up the Northeast Tennessee Valley. Wraparound snows are just not strong enough to fill it back in. Looks like it may be several hours before the 2nd punch from the west side of the state gets here. Not complaining though as we have 9 inches on the ground.

Over 4" in Colonial Heights now. Temp is 31.

33 degrees with moderate snow in Colonial Heights. Side roads and everything else covered.

And all snow now in Colonial Heights. Temp 37. Rates really increased in last 15 minutes. Temp fell 5 degrees in last 30 min.

Here in Colonial Heights the high was supposed to be 39 today it's currently 43 and overcast. Not a good sign.

I'll take E10 for $1000 please.