PowellVolz

First cut of the year. Still a little blotchy at the bottom from last year’s drought.




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For those of you in SE Tennessee….


https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid026FgSTbWgugzxTDZZTTin9xX7FfNzW5SoXRqcjdTzMVs5xgng9BfoEwZAr9vgXTt5l&id=100063610086970


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Just reading D'Aleo over at WxBell who I respect a lot....he has a graph of one area of the Pac where the El Nino just collapsed during mid January (100-180?).  I have not looked to see where that is, but I do wonder if the collapse of the El Nino has had a significant effect on the second half of winter.  We kind of got the worst of both worlds - first half Nino(typically warm) and second half Nada(typically warm!).  We managed about ten days of weak El Nino...and many scored.  
Also, JB think the PDO is set to flip positive next winter.  I see no evidence of that but haven't looked at recent metrics for it.  Anyone have a forecast for it?

I love a March surprises but it’s gonna be 70+ for 3 days this week, so we don’t need any surprises now.


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Looks like Wednesday went poof. That’s never a bad thing.


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A quick minute from SWAD 2024. James is right. More TV mets should consider being more familiar with specific landmarks and reference points when doing storm coverage. 
 

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer for 3/11-18 and not as cold 3/18-25 vs yesterday’s run. 

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Yea, I shudder to think what would happen to the forum area if we had a winter like we had when we were kids in the 1970's 

Yea, technically, I have done well also north of Nashville the last two seasons, however, I would have liked to have had a longer "winter" season that just the week we had in January this year but technically both seasons I have had above the seasonal average in snowfall 

I don't know what the issue w/ LR ext modeling is.  It may just be LR ext modeling is not great during Jan/Feb.  I suspect modeling missed the IO/SOI/MC area forecast.   The anomalous GOA slp during December was not great.  I also think the NAO is terribly difficult to forecast at any range, and that was a big miss.  The NAO could have given us a chance for cold later this winter.  When modeling lost it....flipped warm.  So, I think the combo of difficulty in modeling the NAO and also MC regions modeling failures caused the bust.  The strat split miss probably didn't help.  Guessing we also have an ascending QBO and declining El Nino.  Again, not all El Nino winters are cold and stormy.  We thankfully got a decent, little window.  But the 90s El Nino winters were hot garbage with the exception of a couple of really notable events.  And honestly, outside of last winter, three of the last four winters have had some decent winter weather to track for at least some portion of the forum area.  

I’m starting to think Wednesday for East of Nashville but it looks like energy doesn’t overlap as well as Tuesday does west of the valley.

However it’s looking like the next several weeks this thread might get active.


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Speaking of snow, I do think folks above 2500’ could see some snow Sat morning, maybe even some snow showers at lower.  MRX mentioned light snow for higher

I think about the time we all think it is spring and are happy with the temps....gonna be some wicked cold temps.  I can see a signal during week 4 which shows that, but during shoulder season, those cold shots can be a mirage.  SSW cold dumps West and then heads eastward.

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Kinda surprised how well RadarScope looks back west. It’s holding together well, maybe even amping up a tick. Interesting


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Radarscope shows snow north of Jackson. Temps look to be between 34 and 32 to about I 40. We need [mention=20037]Itryatgolf70[/mention]s observations in these pivotal hours. 

Chicken feathers in W Tenn

https://x.com/tmattwalker/status/1757187035629052369?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


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We have had some good thunder the last two days here.

This guy has been hanging around my house the past few days. Maybe he's telling us winter isn't quite through yet. 

12z Euro drops some more snow with a front on Feb 17. 

No worries [mention=3027]jaxjagman[/mention] or [mention=13698]Daniel Boone[/mention] I was trying to ride a line between serious and funny. 

We just need the Pacific not to have massive jet extensions....that has been a problem for several winters.  I have my theories on why this is occurring(one of you knows my thoughts), but I do wonder.  

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Flood advisory for E Knox, Jeff, Sevier, Etc…. Up over an inch now and the fire hose goes back to Texas.


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