Warm Nose

6" and I'm happy 31/-4

The money shot

32/-3

More a slight broadening of the shield than anything really.

Yeah don't see any appreciable change in QPF or a tightening/broadening of the gradient.

It's not just LWX with this storm ... EAX (KC) also working with uncertainty: The overall forecast remains on track, with the only change being a slight increase in snow totals for a corridor roughly 30 miles north and south of US Highway 36 and a slight decrease in snow totals for our southern counties. This has only increased/tightened the already large snowfall gradient that has set up over the Interstate 70 corridor and the KC metro, as snowfall could range from a foot near KCI to only 4" or so across Cass County.

https://twitter.com/Fly_KansasCity/status/1875645691625890056

This forum needs intensive therapy for insecurity ...

The past couple years this is the point at which we'd throw in the towel. Not the case for this one ... ...yet

Not a cutter/App runner Not waiting for the cold QPF not an issue A little perspective goes a long way

I just wish it was the other way around

Also, Dude, the preferred nomenclature is not 'hammered' ... 'pummeled,' please

I see we've reached the 'model disclaimer' portion of the storm. Next should 'gnashing of teeth' phase.

In order to get larger totals we always live on the edge. Can't have boom without a potential bust.

DCA will still report <3" regardless ...

Seems legit ...

I see we're moving slowly from the Bargaining stage to the Depression stage ... final one is Acceptance

Roughly 2 inches, which makes it not a complete bust-o-rama. It was still fun. If there's a next one, great, if not at least we saw more snow this year here than I did last.

no way in hell that's even verifying here

Rates here are good but not spectacular. Nowhere near enough to overcome the pavement. With the looks of things I think I'll be lucky to get 2", more likely about and inch and a half which will bust way lower than the 5-8 LWX has. Not a big deal but the speed of this and lower QPF ended up getting us here. Trends mean something and just like Monday, it's gonna bust low. On to the next, if there is one.

Meso discussion from SPC, would seem to support there's issue with drier air. Mesoscale Discussion 0149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia to western New Jersey Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170333Z - 170730Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to spread east across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate snowfall continues to spread east from the upper OH River Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic based on recent regional reflectivity composites. Transient organized snow bands continue to be observed within this broader zone, resulting in visibility reductions from 1/2 to 1/4 mile and steady snowfall accumulations based on recent snow reports from the region. Favorable phasing of synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and strong isentropic and frontogenetic lift within the 925-700 mb layer, which has been driving this activity so far, is expected to persist as the system pushes towards the East Coast over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance depicts reasonably high probability in snowfall rates between 1-2 inch/hour across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (and possibly as far east as the NJ coast) through 08 UTC. Based on observed trends, this depiction seems fairly reasonable. One caveat is a lingering warm/dry layer below 850 mb sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings and noted in surface observations across northern MD, southeast PA, and into western NJ, which may limit snowfall rates in the near term. However, a combination of evaporative cooling and persistent mesoscale ascent along the warm frontal zone should support adequate low-level saturation/cooling to allow for moderate to heavy snowfall in the coming hours.

38/17.