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Warm Nose

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Everything posted by Warm Nose

  1. Warm Nose
    32.5 / 16.3 Ready for the Sleet-a-palooza 2020
  2. Warm Nose
    Just west of Round Hill
  3. Warm Nose
    38/17 800' here in Western Loudoun
  4. Warm Nose
    LOL that takes me from 3 to 10 inches. Not buying.
  5. Warm Nose
    Some folks will get upset that this busted, but it speaks to the state of forecasting honestly. The models aren't to be taken as what will happen, only an input into formulating a forecast. Even some mets I think have forgotten that. Models are a tool - not a prediction. There were some like @ers-wxman1 that sounded caution on this early and said the airmass wasn't conducive to a big event.
  6. Warm Nose
  7. Warm Nose
  8. Warm Nose
    We always seem to get more dryslotting than projections. Would not be surprised to see that as well.
  9. Warm Nose
    This is a cold rain 'near miss' and/or sleet fest for most here. Fun while it lasted ... it follows a similar pattern, we should be used to it by now.
  10. Warm Nose
    @ers-wxman1 Your earlier comments about the relative strength of the cold airmass make sense to me. This just doesn't seem to have the strength of arctic cold that we need for this close a track to hold for any length of time.
  11. Warm Nose
    Understood, from your earlier statements I figured that was a foregone conclusion.
  12. Warm Nose
    For reference
  13. Warm Nose
    The oft-desired, seldom-seen Purple checkmark or 'magic quadrant':
  14. Warm Nose
  15. Warm Nose
    Yeah, if that verifies (it won't) then I'm golden. Here I expect some front end followed by a lot of mix and sleet and then finishing up with additional. Namely because that's usually the m.o. here. Hard to buck climo.
  16. Warm Nose
    In the "positive signs" department, it's now spitting nice fat flakes in between the torrential raindrops here, so that's good. I'm at 800 feet, so maybe some hope.
  17. Warm Nose
    Yeah but ahead of 'wishing really hard' though, so there's still hope!
  18. Warm Nose
    It's always fun until reality sets in. Climo wins again.
  19. Warm Nose
    Going strictly by personal experience I'd say it is likely that the storm is another > < this close miss. That's just living in the area for 25 years and knowing how these tend to go especially this early in the season.
  20. Warm Nose
    This is the most honest thing that will be posted in this thread within the next 48 hours.
  21. Warm Nose
    I see the forum is in mid-season antagonistic form.
  22. Warm Nose
    That hurts
  23. Warm Nose
    Yes, please.
  24. Warm Nose
    I will take that GFS run and be happy ... of course it's wrong, but hey 2020 so take any positive you can ...
  25. Warm Nose
    9.25" @ 10:45p 26.6/21 very light -SN
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