BornAgain13

Can someone show the GFS Ensemble snow for 10 days or under out , or does everything keep getting pushed to hr 378?

Hopefully the Ensembles stay cold and wintry,  the GFS OP looks terrible 

The Land mass that this fantasy winter storm covers is unreal , deep south to the northeast.

Lol , don't look at the 0z GFS , past Hr 276 , that thing is going boom with a huge winter storm...

18z GFS with a whopper of an ICE event next weekend taken verbatim 

Great look there... cant wait to start tracking some legit winter weather! Many of our biggest snows dont even come until late January , Early Feburary... exciting times ahead. 

Just now, msuwx said:

EPS is very noisy.... tons of variance in the placement/ strength/ timing of the 500mb feature. 500mb spaghetti looks like..... well, spaghetti.... across the Southeast 12/22-23.

So basically , this thing is far from over? Just have to continue to watch..

12z EURO brings a good storm , just not a snow storm. To warm again...

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Yep, 95% bet on a NW trend

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The evolution of that 12z run of the GFS was weird to lol

GFS stays really suppressed this run

Well, GFS continues to be alone... Euro says "made you look."

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

All that is the gravy train. We all want the surface and the upper atmosphere to behave. Give me that track come Wednesday and I'd feel pretty good. SE flow would aid in enhancement for sure at least up this way and WNC

You and I would be having a white Christmas up our way if that came to fruition...

Just watching that bowling ball go across the country is something else...

4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Thanks Mack for the fly in the ointment... We know to count on you

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To me , this type of setup is either SNOW or RAIN.

2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Bit further east we have a set up like the glory storms of the days of old (73, 89 early 2000s, etc.)

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It's great to see the GFS be consistent with some type of storm for a while now... would love for the EURO to hop on board and display some fireworks...

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

12z EURO made a swing in the right direction... Now we wait for the EPS to come on board

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Yep , time to lose sleep tracking the GFS tonight... lol

Great seeing the GEFS support the OP! 

1 minute ago, Wow said:

They are marginal as well but the rain/snow line will be determined by the trek of that 850 low.  This is an interesting setup as we don't have a sfc low forming in the gulf..  it's a very suppressed Miller B storm!

Which apparently is a great setup for southern VA , NW NC

Just now, Queencitywx said:

Yep. Heavy snow where it’s cold enough with a narrow transition area. 

Someone is going to get hammered by this thing if the trends keep up...

So why did the LOW not move up the coast that time , it went straight SE out to sea lol

That thing kept digging... wow

If I had to guess I would believe that the 18z GFS will have a much different solution than 12z but hopefully it's a positive change...

4 minutes ago, Wow said:

12z Euro has the players there again but doesn't get the job done bringing down the cold air, thowing in a low over the GL

Weird though , even with not much supply of cold air,  the system is suppressed really far south... kind of a unique run of the Euro,  would have thought with not much cold air , the moisture would of come north...

Just now, Wow said:

Yes, the GFS is closer to the ideal setup with the S Canadian ridge over the southern low. Want to see the low placed a little more SE...

Do you think this will be a trend? Hope so!

GFS hammers southern VA and northern NC this run...