BornAgain13

12z EURO coming in quicker with a possible major winter storm...

Incoming,  12z EURO! 

Just 2 days ago , the GFS had this

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12z CMC has the storm suppressed and crushed...

12z GFS has rain again...

Its encouraging to see a whole lot of the EPS members from 0z having decent hits... hopefully 12z continues 

7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Meanwhile on the GEFS... NADA

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I'll take my chances with the EURO and EPS

3 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Pet peeve alert....

This is largely a board for weather enthusiasts. It gets very old when the flood of the same, tired, snide comments come in after someone posts a medium-range model map. I think everyone reading this board is aware a single run of a deterministic model (or single ensemble member) will likely never verify in the extended medium range.

But what are people supposed to post? A picture of an overcast sky? The purpose of the board is to discuss whatever there is to discuss, and unfortunately for snow fans, medium-range snapshots are about all we've got. 

End of rant... back to your regularly-scheduled programming.

Exactly!

The 0z EURO CONTROL and 12z GFS look kinda similar for late next week.

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Approaching 4 1/2" here at my home.

Thankful that the severe threat stayed south of my area , Temps still in the 40s here , it's a rough day in North Carolina though..

Up to 2.60" of rain in Dry Fork, VA so far

8 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Just a question? Don’t precip shields erode as they move.  NWS is calling for +-5 for your area as of now.  Could be wrong.  I’ve seen pro Mets call for 1/2 of the accumulations of the models locally.  Not to say your wrong but I would hope so.

Not really sure,  I'm just going by what I've saw and the latest guidance... tomorrow is going to be rough either way..

Just now, wncsnow said:

It won't be close. Wind gusted over 60 mph in Danville and it rained over 6 inches in 6 hours. 

Not talking about the wind , talking about the rain and flooding... latest guidance is suggesting 4-7" of rain near and around Danville... in 24 hrs or less.

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Michael was devastating for Danville.  This wont touch that..

It might not touch it but it will be close if the latest guidance is correct...

The latest HRRR is crazy... showing 4.7" of rain through 4 pm tomorrow and still many hours of rain to go after that...

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Things are looking a little dire for flooding this month.. Long range the Euro and GFS pump out tons of rain for the area.. 8-12 inches the next 2 weeks seem possible...

You know that's not true , we can't forecast that much snow that far out , what makes you think we can with rain?

35 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Don’t fret over the euro. As we seen the last system, the euro has until the day of at 12Z to get it correct. 

Also the CMC has passed the GFS in skill percentage and isn't to far behind the EURO

Just now, jjwxman said:

Decent hit for the  I-40 / I-85 Corridor.  

Yeah , would love to see it but right now the GFS and EURO keep the snow in the Mountains 

12z GFS has the same storm,  but is a little to warm.. CMC brings up a coastal and supplies several inches of snow in the northern piedmont... right now though the CMC is by itself

2nd run in a row with a decent snow for southern VA On the CMC

CMC brings 2-4" of snow next weekend to northern NC , Southern VA

Hey , we can't get an actual winter storm so far , so we mine as well enjoy some of the fantasy runs lol

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Based on the precip output, most of that in central NC is sleet/freezing rain.

Right , and up my way taken verbatim , it's a ton of ICE and then about 7" of snow on top of it lol.

21 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Lol! Reading into it!!




.

If that happened,  then who cares what happens or what hadn't happened the rest of the winter lol