dj3

I thought the mix line stayed south of the city. Usually if we are in the pinkish purple that will be counted on the snowfall map but I didn’t notice any sleet from the city north. Doesn’t mean it will necessarily fall that way though 

12k shifted a little north but still keeps the changeover line south of the city 

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

GEFS also looking like a slight tick to the south and east

Eliminated most of the members that get close to our latitude. I’m liking this a lot.

Ukie looks like east tenn to Delmarva track 

That’s a huge shift on the gfs as well. Anxiously waiting on the ukie and euro 

Rgem shifted south as well. Let’s keep this going 

At this point if the gfs shifts south at all I’ll consider it a win. 

Seems to be quicker than originally modeled. 

That is a huge shift on the Nam. Beautiful 

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

The question is, is it too amped. If it is then we are in a good spot. 

I think ritual had a good post this morning. There is just nothing to stop the primary low from coming north before it does it’s jump east. We  don’t really have a classic hp so I don’t see a reason right now why this wouldn’t continue to nudge until game time. The euro and ukmet still show good hits but the same trend is there on them as well. Hope I’m wrong 

4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Nam is even worse. 

We don’t even get much precip haha 

Ukie pretty much in agreement with every other model now bringing the low to the wv/pa border. Snow map keeps norther Allegheny around a foot but not gonna buy that with lp position. 

2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Not seeing any favorable changes on the GFS.. actually may be a bit worse. But I'll let it run through before getting irritated lol

Thought 6z looked a little better and maybe it was converging to euro and ukie. 12z looks like a big step back.

Amazing how steady the gfs has been. 

Icon looks a little better but still a razor thin line cut off. Looks to have a little less precip in general wonder if that will be a trend with the low jumping east 

We really can’t afford any more nudges north on the euro.

Anyone know what the 6z euro showed?

Nvm great timing! 

11 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

Boy this thread is quiet, if all the models sh*t the bed I am sure there would be lots of folks here bellyaching.  We have a 8+" storm on the way and nada here.  Come on folks, take yes for an answer and let's talk about what's coming.  I like where we are at not in the bullseye... 72 hours out. Models seem to be coalescing on a solution where most of our precip is of the frozen variety.  I think Washington County north gets over a foot.

Cut off is a little close for comfort right now and the gfs still shows basically nada so I think most are just being cautious. It will probably be a nowcast event which I will gladly take. I’d rather be in the game than not. I sure hope you are right though. 

15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Its who we are. We just suck for good snows. Although some 5-8 hit would be nice from time to time. I tried to act positive even when the euro came south but this has a screw job written all over it. YOU WIN AGAIN WTOD! Rant over. I havent been around for the 0z models but from a quick glance most look bad. 

Wouldn’t give up yet. Nothing has really changed the gfs has always sucked 

We need the primary to get shunted east sooner. It’s getting too far north 

If the nam has the low position right I highly doubt that much frozen 

A foot of sleet on 12k

EPS mean looks north. Didn’t picture that from the individual members 

The low pressure location in south central va is pretty consistent with the other models. But it is way warmer for pretty much the entire state.

Gfs not buying the euro yet. Not going to get too worked up since the euro was still solid.