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1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah they look South of the OP again. With this setup less is more, but wouldn't that be wild if it ended up fringing us to the North? lol I think we have a ways to go on that though. Hopefully GFS starts to look more Euroish.

I counted only a few that kept us down to a few inches. Most of them have us getting hit pretty good which was reflected in the mean. There are some pretty sweet members in there too at 10:1. I don’t know if gfs is going to bite for the time being but I hope we can at least get a slight trend towards the euro. 

3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Like I said upthread. If you were to split the difference between the euro and gfs, we’d be in pretty good shape. Southern areas would have issues though. 

I’m pretty happy with 12z runs overall. The only one that really sucked was the gfs. Everything else seemed to do a consensus shift towards significant snow for Pittsburgh. Even the Ggem shifted further south. I love that look on the euro temps never go above 30 and the foot line is almost down to the pa border. 

Pretty much a perfect euro run. Even gives us some wiggle room. 

@MikeB_01 wow really sharp gradient for the city. 

CMC actually looks a little better. I think we need that idea of the primary dying and coastal transfer to take over.

Gfs seems to be very consistent with placing us on the southern edge of the cut off.

Nice surprise to wake up to this morning with the overnight runs. Everything looks like it trended toward a little less phasing. The euro snow map has the jackpot over my house so that’s an image I’ll be saving haha. Great to see the north trend stop for now. 

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

UK Met. There were positive changes on the gfs and euro at 500. Also the NAM looks like it would be in the UK camp. 

Good point I forgot about the ukie!

We’ve got the deep thunder and icon on our side so all hope is not lost

Yea I’ve noticed that too. It is Showing a lot less frozen than the euro for similar tracks @CoraopolisWx

Gfs still takes the low over our heads and up into ny state. 

Quite the front end thump on the icon. Definitely looks a bit south and precip colder. 

Goes more along the lines with north pgh’s last post. I-80 north looks safest. Ugh 

EPS snowfall looks north compared to what the op just had. 

9 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

It is very close to 00z, it did make an ever so slight improvement on totals to the SE, now gets almost 12+ into northern Allegheny, not sure how accurate that is though as these snow algorithms are pretty poor handling changeover situations.  I know it's just noise but man is it close.

I thought the stripe of max snow looked a little south from 00z as well. We’d still likely underperform on totals if that was the final outcome but that is close enough to keep things interesting for now. 

11 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I don't know how many times a storm hit and my parents that live in southern Armstrong get 6+ and I have slush 10 miles south. Growing up I never realized how good it was living there. Typically I don't get to worked up anymore either, but when we are missing 24 inches by 50 miles it's like salt in the wound.

That’s interesting. I grew up a few miles south of the Armstrong border and never remembered doing that much better in these situations. It always seemed if the changeover was making it into the city it was inevitable we would change shortly after. I probably never had a consistent location to compare to like you did so that could be skewing my memory. 

Just now, Rd9108 said:

 

I'd be done for the year if this verified. I just once want to track a big storm that actually nails us. Is that too much to ask. 

I would be willing to bet the cutoff doesn’t show up like that. But yes what a gut punch that would be 

Still a brutally close call on the euro but I’m glad it’s not any worse.

That is probably best case scenario at this point, almost a perfect track that stays completely underneath us. I wish it wasn’t by itself

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

I think as i look at it now, its what we were talking about last night. The icon doesn't have the mix on tropical tidbits. I think the map that i posted early, even though it looks tasty, is probably a lot of ice

Gotcha. Missed that earlier. That would make a lot more sense if some of that was sleet.

28 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Just love the look of this

I wonder why the storm vista map is showing so much snow? The look on tropical tidbits has Allegheny county in rain for most of the frames.

The icon now brings the low basically right up to western Pa. The solutions that were spitting out big snow totals had more of a w/e trajectory underneath our latitude.

Let’s hope the euro is over amping things for now. Even a little adjustment back in the right direction would be huge for us.  

The trend has gone way north in the last 24 hours. That’s not a good sign imo. 

I can’t remember a signal as strong as this from range. Really not much in the way of southern sliders totally missing us on ensembles.