Jump to content

dj3

Members
  • Posts

    619
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by dj3

  1. 9 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

    12z GFS doesn't look like it's going to make any friends in our section of the world, drives the primary into SWPA, so a lot of the front thump is sleet / zr / rain then the coastal doesn't throw much back to us.

    As depicted it sucks but I think it is taking a step towards the euro has far as the coastal being tucked in. We need it to be wrong on the warmth it brings with the primary though for sure. It is the most bullish on precip for sure. 

    264FF8C5-49F3-4618-927F-1C5702302350.png.a5d61d21c415f18b5b527a3e788fa3e2.png

  2. 9 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

    Light snow has been coming down for a couple hours, but to warm, nothing accumulating yet. Feels crazy to say that in mid January at night. Living in low elevation spot is brutal with marginal temperatures.

    Looks like some slightly better returns on radar, might wake up to whitened landscape again.

    During slower tracking periods I tend to read in the New England and Mid Atlantic forums for long range stuff. Figured I'd bring up one of the themes I keep seeing repeated by some of the knowledgeable guys in the MA forum to see if anyone has thoughts in here. It does feel slightly ironic bringing this up after one of our snowiest Decembers on record and a nice double digit snowfall we have all been craving.

    The blocking regime that has evolved over January really has not resulted in much in the way of cold or snow which many have attributed to the putrid airmass that the block is currently holding in place. Basically a block does little good if there isn't already an established cold source nearby. Maybe I am not remembering correctly or mistaken because of lack of understanding but in the past I remember thicknesses that are well below 540 resulting in a colder reflection at the surface than what we are seeing this winter. Taking this past weekend as an example, I am surprised what evolved at the surface (mid 30's with snow in the air most of the time). I guess I'm curious if our cold fronts are going to continue to be moderated in the short term due to warmth in our cold source regions, or if this is something that is going to be a persistent issue moving forward? 

    Definitely not complaining with the winter we have had so far, just bored with a slow couple of tracking weeks and trying to better understand why the good pattern looks haven't lived up to the potential hype. 

  3. 43 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

    It was, yes. That was a whole different set of things that screwed us over on that one. We generally get screwed on these ones too....think January 2016 where you drove 50 miles south and east of Pittsburgh they had nearly 2 feet and I got 4 or 5 inches just north of the city.

    It’s easy to be negative with our climo but honestly I feel like this storm is one of the perfect types to not give us a huge bust. No worries on mixing, not riding the northern edge and not waiting for a changeover. I think we’re in for a solid storm, doubt we jackpot but I don’t think we’ll be disappointed either. I think 6-12 is in play across Allegheny country. 

    • Like 4
×
×
  • Create New...