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Quite the messy looking set up on the GFS. I am guessing we want the primary low to be limited in how far north it travels before transferring, while also rooting for the secondary development to be tucked. Probably a good reason miller B's don't often produce big totals here haha. 

I will gladly trade the Monday storm for a better trend on Thursday’s storm. Thing looks like a beast 

Next Monday into Tuesday starting to become interesting. Wouldn't mind taking my chances with a strong southern shortwave running into that block even if it does mean dealing with some mixing. 

9 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Light snow has been coming down for a couple hours, but to warm, nothing accumulating yet. Feels crazy to say that in mid January at night. Living in low elevation spot is brutal with marginal temperatures.

Looks like some slightly better returns on radar, might wake up to whitened landscape again.

During slower tracking periods I tend to read in the New England and Mid Atlantic forums for long range stuff. Figured I'd bring up one of the themes I keep seeing repeated by some of the knowledgeable guys in the MA forum to see if anyone has thoughts in here. It does feel slightly ironic bringing this up after one of our snowiest Decembers on record and a nice double digit snowfall we have all been craving.

The blocking regime that has evolved over January really has not resulted in much in the way of cold or snow which many have attributed to the putrid airmass that the block is currently holding in place. Basically a block does little good if there isn't already an established cold source nearby. Maybe I am not remembering correctly or mistaken because of lack of understanding but in the past I remember thicknesses that are well below 540 resulting in a colder reflection at the surface than what we are seeing this winter. Taking this past weekend as an example, I am surprised what evolved at the surface (mid 30's with snow in the air most of the time). I guess I'm curious if our cold fronts are going to continue to be moderated in the short term due to warmth in our cold source regions, or if this is something that is going to be a persistent issue moving forward? 

Definitely not complaining with the winter we have had so far, just bored with a slow couple of tracking weeks and trying to better understand why the good pattern looks haven't lived up to the potential hype. 

It is amazing how boring January has been for tracking snow. Looks like we might see some snow showers around Friday/Saturday but temperatures are looking marginal so I doubt much stickage. 

Yea kinda funny that we finally get some blocking and there is no moisture anywhere to be found. But as others have stated we may be moving into a pattern where some northern stream threats pop up in the short range unexpectedly. 

Merry Christmas everyone and good luck with the snow tonight! I’ll be in Johnstown for this and it looks like one of the few times where west is best. 

Can’t wrap my head around how this would work out after the cold front moves through on Christmas Eve but oh how I pray lol

Just got back in from a 4 hour walk haha. One of the most satisfying storms I can recall with Christmas lights and off and on very heavy snow. Closing in on 10 inches here. 

Radar looks good for some action later after this break.

Just got home from work and looks like the heavy band has already moved through, barely snowing at all in oakmont. 

It has been pretty light for most of the day in Robinson. I'm anxiously waiting to get home as the heavier returns look to be setting up shop in eastern Allegheny and Westmoreland. 

Snowed for about 30-40 minutes to drop a coating in Robinson TWP. Pretty much stopped now in a little bit of a lull. 

Good luck everyone, regardless of outcome it was a fun storm to track. Time to radar watch and let the chips fall 

43 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

It was, yes. That was a whole different set of things that screwed us over on that one. We generally get screwed on these ones too....think January 2016 where you drove 50 miles south and east of Pittsburgh they had nearly 2 feet and I got 4 or 5 inches just north of the city.

It’s easy to be negative with our climo but honestly I feel like this storm is one of the perfect types to not give us a huge bust. No worries on mixing, not riding the northern edge and not waiting for a changeover. I think we’re in for a solid storm, doubt we jackpot but I don’t think we’ll be disappointed either. I think 6-12 is in play across Allegheny country. 

I’m still liking where we sit with this one. 

Gfs has been playing catch up the whole time. At this point I’m looking elsewhere at mesos and euro

NWS has this starting pretty early in the day. I was hoping to get home from work in time for the heavy stuff but it may come during the PM commute. 

NWS going 5-8 it looks like. 

Boom Euro! Keeps throwing goodies back well west. 

Euro looking good

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

When will NWS Pittsburgh update?  All this data and they’re still on the update from 4 am.

I doubt we will see them go much higher than an incremental bump. Which is fine at this stage, I'm ok with watching the models for an overperformer.

GFS coming to the party a little late it looks like. Continued great trends today couldn't be happier. 

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Lmao we go from worrying about missing to the east to the dreaded warm tongue of death showing up. Let's see what the other models do. 

This is how we do our big ones, we watch the mix line slowly creep towards us on radar. 

10 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

What’s that little tongue of reduced totals in fayette county? Is that mixing issues or the LP transferring energy right there?....

On the euro I don't think it is mixing issues but moreso the CCB sets up the best banding north of Allegheny count even and keeps it cranking a little longer. From the 850 temps it doesn't look like anything goes above 0 in PA. The most recent NAM run did show some mixing inch it's way just across the border.