dj3

What a monster look for central pa. Hopefully we can get the precip shield to continue to expand and throw some good snows back our way. 

CMC and GFS both looking like a rain to snow scenario for Monday next week. Looks like things could interesting if the cold push timing is correct. Glad to have something to track again 

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The snow climo is awful in PIT.

Jerry, you’d move back to Boston within a year or two. Lol. 

Total snow climo might be “similar” (PIT is maybe 3” less than BOS) but it’s horrendous for 6”+ storms and retention is awful. Not sure how quickly the snow climo increases in the suburbs. The airport is actually elevated outside the city so you probably get he opposite effect as Boston. If you’re anywhere toward the river down lower the snow gets less. In BOS, you get more than the airport pretty everywhere unless you are in a place like Hull. 

Pretty spot on about the snow climo. Elevation in and around the city does make a bit of difference like you pointed out about the airport. Although, there isn't any noticeable uptick unless you are moving into the Laurel Highlands (about 40-60 miles south east of the city). The mountains are in a much better spot for catching some good snows from coastal lows than the city. 

One of the best snow squalls I’ve witnessed. About 15 min of very heavy snow with huge winds. dropped close to an inch in oakmont 

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

0z HRRR dropping. 1-2 inches over pittsburgh...every direction 50 miles from us 2-4 inches. Can’t make this up.

Looks like a pretty uniform 4-6+ over Westmoreland County. Shifted from where that heavy band was setting up about 24 hours ago with most models 

This really looks like a brief window of heavy snow. I’ll take it but man what could have been if we had some cold air 

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Which shows the heaviest snow to the east. 

Yes why I’m looking for consolation in the euro lol

Anyone have the 18z euro?

The 12z GFS has a perfect miller A track around day 9-10 and we still manage to rain. I was reading a thread psuhoffman started in the mid atlantic forum discussing past borderline events and it was pretty depressing. I'm not sure if it is just a recent run of bad luck or if there is a longer term trend related to a changing climate but it frustrating seeing the lack of cold air ruin these tracks that should work out in the heart of winter. 

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Agreed and the UK, GEFS, EURO, and GFS all agree. We need some major changes with the primary or else its gonna be the same thing as last time. I always laugh when people cry about getting screwed on snow. They have no idea what it means getting screwed. 

The whole evolution looks too much like a late blooming miller B to me. The primary even though weak just sorta meanders in Indiana before transferring too far north. Pretty crazy the cutoff to our east, I wonder if it actually plays out like shown. 

The above map is pretty hilarious. Could not draw it up worse. 

It really is too bad we don't have a better airmass leading into this weekend's system as we would probably looking at prolonged light to moderate event. Models seem to be picking up on another southern stream event for next weekend, although cold rain as depicted on 12z Gfs. It would be frustrating for 2 close misses like that with late January temps but it is what it is I guess. 

19 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I’d imagine that is similar to the airport ~1250’

Oakmont along the River is probably similar or maybe a tad higher than downtown (I’d guess 900’)

That would make sense since the airport is only a few miles away, although I didn't realize there was that much elevation west of the city. The river definitely seems to impact accumulations. Last year there were a couple of times when driving a mile or two up the hill into Plum/Penn Hills you could tell a difference in the amount of snow on the ground. 

Anyone live in the area near Robinson? There must be some decent elevation out this way. I started working here a few years ago and I can't get over the difference in snow here compared to home (Oakmont). 

31 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Seems like this storm is ramping up on the models which makes the Sunday storm trend flatter which means its congrats WV and DC again. Still can change but not the trends you want to see. 

It’s the Saturday storm bombing out near cape cod that is making Sunday flatter on the 0z models. Pretty discouraging trends so far but I guess one of the risks with a fast flow and too many shortwaves 

Pretty intense squall in Robinson in the last 15 minutes. Probably a quick inch or close to it in that time. This has be hungry for a big storm 

4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I think part of this is on the General Public...

First, model runs that used to be our little secret on weather boards 10 years ago are now blasted everywhere. So they become points of discussion when they show big storms. 

People seem to understand the nature of thunderstorms and that they can be in the forecast, but hit the next town over. They don’t seem to understand that short distances make a difference with snow. They want a firm forecast. 

So given that fact, they want a forecast that lacks the nuance that some situations need. This one needed it. We all knew that.  It Should have been communicated that there was high potential for far different sensible weather with a small shift. I think the NWS discussions did that. But not many read those.

Ideally that is communicated and people understand that there are sometimes differences in confidence.

So that comes to your point....it those small shifts that make dramatic differences happen, then by all means change the forecast. Don’t step it down gradually. But it really starts with a consumer that understands the situation, and that just isn’t the case.

Maybe that becomes less of a factor of models get better. On one hand, it’s incredible that we know there was a big storm coming in the eastern US a week ago. On the other hand, it’s a damn shame they were this bad in the short term.

I agree, on a large scale it’s incredible how well this was modeled really from 7-10 days out. Focusing on our small region it’s incredible how a subtle shift completely changed our outcome. 

The euro may be king for other locations but it absolutely sh*t the bed for us on this one. The gfs gets a bad wrap but didn’t flinch.

Another thing I find curious is why Mets care about being reactionary. On Twitter they are getting blasted from basically everyone. Even their own semi-colleagues like hosts on the fan are just killing them. What is the big deal about changing your forecast. Why do you have to put out a consistent forecast that doesn’t change. The atmosphere isn’t static so why would a forecast have to be. One thing that definitely frustrates me as this will be referenced the next time we are in the crosshairs for a storm. Sorry for the rant, move to banter if need be.

This was an especially tough one for me after how much time we spent in good snows on the models. I remember last Friday was the first hint at a huge storm and we were on the northern edge with a foot plus on the euro. I think more than anything this makes me appreciate how rare feb 2010 was. Literally it seems like the only time we can get crushed is if it is modeled well south and we get a slow shift north. 

I’m still hopeful for the rest of the winter so I won’t let this spoil our next threat. Part of the fun for me is watching the models give us snow. I know a lot of our posters are frustrated but our next big one will eventually happen. 

Hrrr looks good. Not even a flake to start 

My bar is set at 6 hours of snow and 4 inches 

It was actually a lot better at 0z that gave me some hope. But yes let’s hope it’s over done 

Rgem drives the low up to the west of pit.