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The NAM moved a little east from 6z and still threw a ton of precip back into western PA. Definitely encouraging to see the NAM and EURO a little more bullish on our chances.

9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

EURO ensemble mean is not terrible. Pretty close to a 6-8 type which lets be honest if we start with almost 20 inches in December then we could be pretty happy with the season so far. 

 

Cut back a few inches from 6z but still ok. I was thinking how crazy it is that with all the info we have access to this one is actually still 72 hours out and could possibly shift a bit more either in our favor or the other way. The models have been remarkably consistent with this one so far 

Either way it’s nice to be tracking when there was a lot of doom and gloom in winter outlooks.

11 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Yeah, if we can get over 6 like MAG mentioned I could deal with that. If we get 2-3 inches while Altoona gets 15 I will be salty af.

The snow maps remind me a lot of January 2016 which was also a pretty painful cut off for us. The negative NAO is something we root for but it would be more helpful if there was a strong primary running up into the Ohio valley before transferring. 

13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

The Euro literally will make you cry. We get like 3 inches while 100 miles east gets a foot and a half.

Once again, we are either fringed or mixing. Are only "good" storms seem to be like the one two weeks ago that overachieve and we get 7 inches instead of 4. Big 12-18 types storms just aren't in the cards here.

 

Definitely frustrating but I’m hoping the western edge of the precip expands a little closer to go time. We won’t be getting jackpotted but I’d take another significant snowfall in December.

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The setup is such that Pittsburgh would do well with a miller B type scenario. The problem is the Ohio Valley low isn't very strong and we're transferring to the coast pretty early, making the bulk of the precip shield associated mainly with the coastal low. You hold that Ohio Valley low just a bit longer and stronger and you can likely get a slightly better easterly fetch into western PA to the Ohio Valley and perhaps maintain a better precip shield across western PA. I don't think this region is in play for what's looking like a swath of excessive totals somewhere further east BUT I do think low end warning totals can be achieved if the more amplified solutions have their way. We'll need the meso models to get more into range to see if that idea has any legs.

For now though, I have pretty decent confidence with Pittsburgh metro and surrounding seeing at least a decent higher end advisory event by the end of this. I think the GFS is just a bit too tight and SE with it's swath. 12z Euro coming in a tad SE with it's heavy swath and appeared a bit weaker on the Ohio Valley side of things (def NOT on the coastal end), but maintains the advisory totals over the area. 

 

Thanks for the analysis MAG! You look to be in a better spot for this one, hoping you guys in central PA cash in big 

The eps maps Weatherwill posted in the ma forum actually look the best they have so far. Quite a few west members in there that give western pa a direct hit

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Well atleast its still a few days out. 

Yea after several runs in the right direction that has us on the losing end of a brutal cutoff. 

What a monster look for central pa. Hopefully we can get the precip shield to continue to expand and throw some good snows back our way. 

CMC and GFS both looking like a rain to snow scenario for Monday next week. Looks like things could interesting if the cold push timing is correct. Glad to have something to track again 

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The snow climo is awful in PIT.

Jerry, you’d move back to Boston within a year or two. Lol. 

Total snow climo might be “similar” (PIT is maybe 3” less than BOS) but it’s horrendous for 6”+ storms and retention is awful. Not sure how quickly the snow climo increases in the suburbs. The airport is actually elevated outside the city so you probably get he opposite effect as Boston. If you’re anywhere toward the river down lower the snow gets less. In BOS, you get more than the airport pretty everywhere unless you are in a place like Hull. 

Pretty spot on about the snow climo. Elevation in and around the city does make a bit of difference like you pointed out about the airport. Although, there isn't any noticeable uptick unless you are moving into the Laurel Highlands (about 40-60 miles south east of the city). The mountains are in a much better spot for catching some good snows from coastal lows than the city. 

One of the best snow squalls I’ve witnessed. About 15 min of very heavy snow with huge winds. dropped close to an inch in oakmont 

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

0z HRRR dropping. 1-2 inches over pittsburgh...every direction 50 miles from us 2-4 inches. Can’t make this up.

Looks like a pretty uniform 4-6+ over Westmoreland County. Shifted from where that heavy band was setting up about 24 hours ago with most models 

This really looks like a brief window of heavy snow. I’ll take it but man what could have been if we had some cold air 

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Which shows the heaviest snow to the east. 

Yes why I’m looking for consolation in the euro lol

Anyone have the 18z euro?

The 12z GFS has a perfect miller A track around day 9-10 and we still manage to rain. I was reading a thread psuhoffman started in the mid atlantic forum discussing past borderline events and it was pretty depressing. I'm not sure if it is just a recent run of bad luck or if there is a longer term trend related to a changing climate but it frustrating seeing the lack of cold air ruin these tracks that should work out in the heart of winter. 

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Agreed and the UK, GEFS, EURO, and GFS all agree. We need some major changes with the primary or else its gonna be the same thing as last time. I always laugh when people cry about getting screwed on snow. They have no idea what it means getting screwed. 

The whole evolution looks too much like a late blooming miller B to me. The primary even though weak just sorta meanders in Indiana before transferring too far north. Pretty crazy the cutoff to our east, I wonder if it actually plays out like shown. 

The above map is pretty hilarious. Could not draw it up worse. 

It really is too bad we don't have a better airmass leading into this weekend's system as we would probably looking at prolonged light to moderate event. Models seem to be picking up on another southern stream event for next weekend, although cold rain as depicted on 12z Gfs. It would be frustrating for 2 close misses like that with late January temps but it is what it is I guess. 

19 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I’d imagine that is similar to the airport ~1250’

Oakmont along the River is probably similar or maybe a tad higher than downtown (I’d guess 900’)

That would make sense since the airport is only a few miles away, although I didn't realize there was that much elevation west of the city. The river definitely seems to impact accumulations. Last year there were a couple of times when driving a mile or two up the hill into Plum/Penn Hills you could tell a difference in the amount of snow on the ground. 

Anyone live in the area near Robinson? There must be some decent elevation out this way. I started working here a few years ago and I can't get over the difference in snow here compared to home (Oakmont).