dj3

Loving the expansion to the west from the CCB

Liking the trends from overnight. I see we've got the NAM back on our side with a nice little jackpot over Westmoreland county LOL.

6 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

 

I would say the overall feel of this storm reminds me a little bit of Jan 1996 and Jan 2016. Hopefully the Jan 1996 part carries more weight.

Was thinking about both of these. For some reason I like where we sit. If dc is dealing with mixing issues I’d be pretty surprised if we didn’t get significant precip thrown back this way for a storm of this magnitude. Jan 2016 was a pretty sharp cut off north to south and this one appears more west to east.

8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Someone posted the Euro ensembles in the Mid atlantic forums and there are a TON that are tracking well inland and west of the OP, far more than the few eastern outliers. If that is any sort of indicator it could mean a much bigger hit back our way.

Yep saw that with the low pressure panels as well! 

From mid Atlantic forum... 

Rpm. Hug the model that gives us most haha 

Rgem brought the heavy snow axis a little west from 12z as it looks like the low was more tucked. 

6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I think the precip coming down a little bit is due to the trough being a little flatter than it was on previous runs. Regardess of what the snowfall totals are on this run, the energy remained relatively the same

Definitely a flatter look overall looping the last few runs at 500. Question is does it continue trending that way or has it finished correcting it's bias. I'd be happy if we could lock that up as the end result haha. 

More in line with other guidance 

Looks like it cut back pretty significantly on precipitation even though the low pressure was stronger.

I'm pretty surprised they are using temperature as an excuse to limit impact potential. Models look plenty cold enough and I would think even our best rates are looking to happen later afternoon - midnight?

EPS mean looks to be about 6 inches, slightly worse than the OP.

Hopefully the EURO and NAM aren't over-doing QPF amounts.

Although the snow maps didn't change much on the GFS, the 12z low placement does look further west so I think it is actually a step in the right direction. 

So at this point EURO and NAM vs GFS/Canadian?

The NAM moved a little east from 6z and still threw a ton of precip back into western PA. Definitely encouraging to see the NAM and EURO a little more bullish on our chances.

9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

EURO ensemble mean is not terrible. Pretty close to a 6-8 type which lets be honest if we start with almost 20 inches in December then we could be pretty happy with the season so far. 

 

Cut back a few inches from 6z but still ok. I was thinking how crazy it is that with all the info we have access to this one is actually still 72 hours out and could possibly shift a bit more either in our favor or the other way. The models have been remarkably consistent with this one so far 

Either way it’s nice to be tracking when there was a lot of doom and gloom in winter outlooks.

11 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Yeah, if we can get over 6 like MAG mentioned I could deal with that. If we get 2-3 inches while Altoona gets 15 I will be salty af.

The snow maps remind me a lot of January 2016 which was also a pretty painful cut off for us. The negative NAO is something we root for but it would be more helpful if there was a strong primary running up into the Ohio valley before transferring. 

13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

The Euro literally will make you cry. We get like 3 inches while 100 miles east gets a foot and a half.

Once again, we are either fringed or mixing. Are only "good" storms seem to be like the one two weeks ago that overachieve and we get 7 inches instead of 4. Big 12-18 types storms just aren't in the cards here.

 

Definitely frustrating but I’m hoping the western edge of the precip expands a little closer to go time. We won’t be getting jackpotted but I’d take another significant snowfall in December.

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The setup is such that Pittsburgh would do well with a miller B type scenario. The problem is the Ohio Valley low isn't very strong and we're transferring to the coast pretty early, making the bulk of the precip shield associated mainly with the coastal low. You hold that Ohio Valley low just a bit longer and stronger and you can likely get a slightly better easterly fetch into western PA to the Ohio Valley and perhaps maintain a better precip shield across western PA. I don't think this region is in play for what's looking like a swath of excessive totals somewhere further east BUT I do think low end warning totals can be achieved if the more amplified solutions have their way. We'll need the meso models to get more into range to see if that idea has any legs.

For now though, I have pretty decent confidence with Pittsburgh metro and surrounding seeing at least a decent higher end advisory event by the end of this. I think the GFS is just a bit too tight and SE with it's swath. 12z Euro coming in a tad SE with it's heavy swath and appeared a bit weaker on the Ohio Valley side of things (def NOT on the coastal end), but maintains the advisory totals over the area. 

 

Thanks for the analysis MAG! You look to be in a better spot for this one, hoping you guys in central PA cash in big 

The eps maps Weatherwill posted in the ma forum actually look the best they have so far. Quite a few west members in there that give western pa a direct hit

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Well atleast its still a few days out. 

Yea after several runs in the right direction that has us on the losing end of a brutal cutoff.