Hoosier

Band has definitely come to a screeching halt. Wouldn't be shocked to see a narrow axis overperform in Lake county Indiana.

Not totally certain, but the eastward progress may be slowing or about to slow. Snowing decently here.

Band is really cranking now but heaviest is offshore. Some 35 dbz showing up.

Will be curious to see how quickly it shifts through northwest IN. Winds are currently N to NNE on the eastern end of the lake.

HRRR is trying to put out a narrow weenie band of 3-5" from downtown southward through the IL/IN state line.

Fwiw, there are some ensembles that are farther south (not that that's too surprising) and get Chicago in the game. But certainly not a favored outcome at this point.

Just eyeballing out the window... have a light coating of something... either snow or sleet.

At least you should get into some real deal warmth there (60s plus). Here it will probably be something stupid like being stuck in the 40s or spiking higher at like 3 am when nobody is outside anyway.

Let me just get this out of the way from the top. I fully expect this to be a fail storm imby given the current depiction and the way the season has gone so far really leaves no reason to be personally optimistic. With that being said, we currently have pretty remarkable model/ensemble agreement on a potential big (or biggish) ticket item affecting the sub next week. It looks to have a lot of moisture and a tremendous thermal gradient. Potential exists for pretty significant snow and ice accumulations, certainly favoring north of I-80 (possibly well north).

I wonder what temps are like in the city right now. Been poking around my local/neighborhood obs and most have dipped to freezing. GYY is also down to 32.

Yay I got an advisory.

Interesting re: freezing rain, considering that temps at ORD were 33-34 almost the entire time. I can think of a couple possible explanations. Dews have remained below freezing. The warm layer aloft around ORD also isn't that warm and there's a good cold layer underneath, as evidenced by all the sleet there. The raindrop temps are probably pretty cold as they are hitting the surface, and colder objects/elevated are just cold enough despite 2m air temps being above freezing.

Shaping up to get icy later. Have some puddles around, and there will be a lag between temps dropping below freezing and precip changing over to snow. Plus will lose any solar insolation contribution later.

Good general model agreement on a winter storm with significant snow and ice potential next week.

Looks like a good chance that areas south of I-80 will get skunked in the upcoming regime. Better chances the farther north you go.

Chicago winter at its finest.

Seems like guidance is delaying the changeover to snow around here. Now looks like it won't be before 00z and possibly as late as 02z-03z. Should transition to light sleet/zr later before flipping to snow.

Yeah just had some of that here.

More recent short range guidance has gotten more bullish on hanging up the lake effect band on the Illinois side for a while late tonight/early tomorrow.

Whether this actually happens or not is debatable, but there's a multi-model signal on the lake band stalling out somewhere around here for several hours tomorrow night. Even if that were to occur, it's unclear just how robust it will be. The parameters are decent, but not spectacular, and some models do establish some low level convergence with NNW winds on the western end and NNE winds on the eastern end. All I'd say with confidence is that the HRRR is overdone, but the question is how much to cut it by. 50%, 75%, some other number, etc.

All-time legendary map

21z RAP is trying to do its best impersonation of the HRRR in regards to lake effect.

A prediction that would be right like 99% of the time.

The palms weep

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