Hoosier

Where'd everybody go?

The Euro is, well, nuts. There is a 100 mph 850 mb max (actually 105 mph at one point) as the system maxes out at 980 mb in eastern IN. The wind gust maps spit out 80-90 mph gusts on the back side as a result. Odds of happening are somewhere between impossible and yeah right.

Handling of the features for early to midweek has changed on recent runs. There is more emphasis on a northern stream wave in the northern US/Canada which then allows for the subsequent energy to be somewhat suppressed, at least compared to previous runs which had it going through IA/WI. Here is Tuesday's Euro vs the Euro from today for comparison. It is an energetic pattern so it's hard to have much confidence in the details yet.

As far as the system this weekend, much of the uncertainty lies with the northern stream piece of energy and the timing of it and how it interacts with the closed low ejecting eastward. Assuming there is indeed an organized band of snow that materializes, thermal profiles look a bit cruddy. Cold enough to snow but should be of the wetter variety, especially during the daylight hours.

Haven't seen the >400 hr CFS in a while. Nice change of pace.

Call me crazy but I'm still thinking the weekend system has a shot to do something around here.

12z Euro actually did miss Chicago to the southeast with that, but not by much.

Gonna be tough to get significant snow this far east I think. Don't really see how we can finagle it to happen. Maybe if there is some follow up piece of energy. As currently modeled, it is reminiscent of some of the classic fall storms of years past. Similarly deep and similar track.

12z Euro and GFS both going big time with the low next week.

Indeed. Not the greatest inter/intra model consistency. Still has my eye though in case of a late northward adjustment.

This would be kind of a big deal in almost any other November. Now it's like so what lol

00z GFS with a hard shift toward the Euro for the weekend system. And this just in from the GEM

12z Euro is still on the more bullish end with the weekend system.

Yeah, that system next weekend could do a little something. We'll see. Does seem like the Thanksgiving storm is poised to be the bigger ticket item one way or another (rain/snow/wind).

Lake temps Nov 11 vs Nov 17. 4-5 degree drop near the shore but only a couple degrees farther out in the middle of the lake. SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 903 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES... CHICAGO SHORE..........43. CHICAGO CRIB..........41. MICHIGAN CITY..........46. SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY..........46. SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 904 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES... CHICAGO SHORE..........39. CHICAGO CRIB..........36. MICHIGAN CITY..........41. SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY..........44.

Well, the long anticipated Thanksgiving-ish storm is coming into sight. Here is what the 12z Euro has at the end of the run

As a fan of front loaded winter, I hope December is a good wintry month. A little concerned that it may have some problems. I would gladly sacrifice the first half of the month though if it meant consistent cold/snow for the second half.

It's times like this that make me regret not living farther east downwind of the lake.

Basically downtown Chicago... sorry mimillman PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 220 PM CST MON NOV 11 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0200 PM SNOW 1 SW NORTHERLY ISLAND 41.85N 87.62W 11/11/2019 E0.6 INCH COOK IL NWS EMPLOYEE Positive thing is that this cold will take a nice bite out of lake temps so that when the next legit snowstorm comes around, the marine layer might not be so much of an issue.

So we're going to pull back into something resembling a more normal Nov pattern, and it would be pretty bizarre not to since winter doesn't really lock in this early outside of the northern tier. Question is for how long.

Midweek looking good for a 1-2" refresher.

The thread that Thundersnow was too lazy to make.

If the initial band of snow could join up better with the slug of moisture that develops farther south, we'd have a band of 6+. Not saying that will happen but it's not that far away from happening.

lol

12z Euro did stop the bleeding at least. Would be a band of 3-6" in northern IL when factoring in better than 10:1. Nice size snow swath overall, especially for something at this time of year.