Hoosier

Feeling good about not getting whiffed to the south. Other than that am keeping expectations on the low side. Would just be nice to get some snow in advance of the more significant cold.

At least the 18z NAM isn't like the GFS.

12z GEM has a mesolow for the ages rolling down Lake Michigan. Not buying these model output verbatim of course but mesolow development does seem likely in this setup.

Pretty small sample size though. It would be interesting to look at November and how x total by a certain date or the end of that month does. At some point it becomes difficult to prevent an above average snow season if you rack up a lot early.

GFS being stubborn.

Acceptable enough Ratios would probably improve from beginning to end too

00z Euro looks like it will have a decent storm.

00z UKMET is nice.

Parameters look good to excellent downwind of Lake Michigan for a rather prolonged time. Should peak early in the week though as that graphic mentioned. The South Bend area or somewhere in between there and here looks to be primed. Impressive to see the global models trying to pick out mesolow development at this distance. That could play havoc with the wind fields and cause the band(s) to curl west at times to the point where it could affect my area and/or possibly even the IL/WI shore for a time.

A number of GEFS members have a better look than the op. I did read that the ensembles did not get the upgrade that the GFS did so maybe a bit of an apples to oranges comparison but still nice to see.

18z ICON Nice period of lake enhancement in ne IL too.

Lake effect parameters look pretty high end next week. Could really pile up somewhere if there's not a lot of band shifting.

Remember the monster low that the GFS blew up a few days ago as the cold air dumped in? That was an extreme outcome but let's see if things can trend any better with this in coming days.

Check this out on the 00z GEM. Look near Cleveland. It seems like a mesolow but I have never seen one so well defined on a model. Like this is ridiculous. There appears to be one around Lake Michigan at the same time, but weaker.

IF this airmass doesn't moderate in the coming days and there is a night or two of favorable radiational cooling, then we could see something pretty crazy especially where there is snow on the ground.

The cold is more impressive again on the recent model runs, and not just the GFS. We'll see if it trends back the other way again but it is starting to get out of total goofball range.

This would be an easy 3-6" type lake enhanced around the southern end of Lake Michigan on Thursday if it were a bit colder. But the marginal thermal profiles (especially early on) are a problem which will hurt accumulations. Could be a sweet spot that is in the band but far enough inland to escape some of the marine warmth and accumulate more efficiently but it is too early to try to figure that out.

Some lake enhancement does look likely, probably starting out around Chicago metro before shifting into IN/MI. Can't rule out some rain or more of a mix at first but as 850 mb temps drop, all snow should be seen even all the way to the shoreline. Lake temps generally running in the mid-upper 40s will yield delta T initially in the mid teens before increasing to around 20C.

I like the pivotal map better. The wave that contributes to Thursday's snow is still in no man's land well north of Alaska so definitely could see some model shifting to come... hopefully for the better.

System later this week has trended a little better.

Yeah not holding my breath on that one... at least as far as something that deep. Just a general thought going forward this season... some of these extremely cold GFS runs have me wondering if we are going to see an extreme cold discharge into the CONUS at some point. We had the extreme cold at the end of January this year and going back into the 1980s and 1990s, there are multiple cases of extreme cold getting into the Midwest in back to back winters or just skipping over 1 winter. Heck there has already been some impressive cold especially out west.

GFS is trying with that storm next week. Just not good enough. Need to bring the northern stream wave in farther west. The 18z ICON is what happens when that happens.

12z Euro is a bit south. Does manage to have a band of lake enhanced snow around here as 850 mb temps pushing -10C are cold enough to overcome the still relative bath water of Lake Michigan.

That GFS storm is a total freakshow. Besides wrecking the shorelines as it occludes and slows down, it has afternoon temps still in the single digits in parts of IA/IL on Nov 12th.

Watching mid to late week