Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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The 12z Euro deepens the system by 15 mb in 6 hours and 27 mb in 12 hours as it is leaving the US and moving into Canada. How impressive is that rate of deepening? Well, the 1978 Ohio superbomb deepened 16 mb in 6 hours and 30 mb in 12 hours... but it accomplished that at a farther south latitude from AL to Lake Erie. A little bit less impressive to do it where the Euro does, but still very impressive nonetheless. That being said, this is still in model fantasy land and very much subject to change.
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Maybe the best October synoptic snow potential in the sub since 1997? Like Alek said, not easy to pull off at this time of year. Multiple ways to fail... one of them would be if there's no follow up piece of energy like the Euro suggests and results in a storm too far north/west to do most of us any good.
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2 snow swaths on the 12z Euro... The one that Thundersnow mentioned from Missouri northeastward and a heavier one farther west that precedes it.
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Explosive deepening around/after this time.
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12z Euro sends a low toward the western Lakes but there is energy in the Rockies at 168 hrs... let's see if we get a second low to form farther south/east.
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Agreed
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Anyone remember the last time the 516 dm height contour was modeled that far south in October?
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The 00z GFS is really close to being a Halloween freakshow. As is, it's an impressively deepening storm. But if the northern energy drops in a little sooner...
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I see blue in that band. A mangled flake watch may become necessary in some areas if trends warrant.
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Autumn/Winter 2019-2020 Banter/Complaint Thread
Hoosier replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Buckeye renewing his subscription is like the unofficial kickoff of winter. But I regret to inform you that you are going against the longstanding protocol of 1 banter thread per season. -
Pretty good consensus on a storm in that timeframe... at least for now lol
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I'd be glad to post about it at Ampol, but, you know. I am not impeding Johnwow's ability to fix the problem. Relax.
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Will you admit that I am not Luc1f3r? You don't like when people lie about you but you kept making up lies about Luc1f3r. Get outta here.
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A simple walkthrough of the chronology of events would show that I got banned for deciding to return after a self-imposed break. If I wasn't wanted back then maybe I should've been banned from the get go. I would say it's a problem when one person decides to run a board like that. So are you finally convinced that I didn't sign up there as Luc1f3r?
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Autumn/Winter 2019-2020 Banter/Complaint Thread
Hoosier replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Like a 30 mb drop in 12 hours. Seems likely to verify -
I thought we were talking about people who have issues there. Anyway, have a good day Stebo.
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I heard trixie has been having issues lately.
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Might be a record early start for the med/long range thread.
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This thread is for systems showing up in the medium-long range. Have already been talking about it a bit in the seasonal thread, but the extended looks to have some unusually cold air to tap into with even some model/ensemble suggestion of a wintry system or two. Nothing set in stone of course.
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Models are muddled on the details of course but I really think something anomalous could happen in the final week of the month. The amount of cold air that is available to be tapped into looks quite impressive for this time of year. It's possible that nothing really happens and it ends up being a dry chill but the foundation is there.
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System late next week/weekend would be a little interesting, relatively speaking (it is October after all), with a little different/colder evolution. Have to remember that anything more than flurries/snow showers is very uncommon at this time of year for most of the sub, but damn if it isn't a winterish look at times in the extended.
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Maybe it's just me but the pattern has the feel of something that could produce an unseasonably far south October snowfall. There looks to be some decent cold (by Oct standards) to play with at times.
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Some of the latest info does suggest a possible weak Nino for winter. May fall a bit short. It could end up being a case of Ninoish but not meeting the technical criteria of 5 consecutive trimonthly readings.
