Hoosier

Don't know why somebody doesn't fix those maps. Practically all that stuff down south is sleet/freezing rain.

Widespread pre Xmas winter storm on the GFS. First things first though.

I am on board with that threat, which makes it like legally bound to happen. In all seriousness, at least it looks like we are entering a pattern with more chances to snow.

A rather exciting 00z Euro run tonight. Too bad it's so far out.

Does look like a limited snow producer unfortunately, even if it does take that kind of track. Models have been flip flopping on track though.

Big Gulf to Lakes low is back on the 12z GFS.

Had a feeling you might say something like that, but wasn't sure. There are definitely people who are in the camp of "if it's not going to snow it might as well torch"

A. Snow band is tucked in pretty tight to the surface low on that depiction B. Can't believe I just commented on the 14 day GFS.

Serious question for a die hard winter guy like yourself. Which would you rather have, the type of regime we've been in lately or something really torchy like a run of 10-15+ above average? Have to pick one.

Hopefully that thing around the 13th-15th produces a nice snow somewhere, but even if it doesn't, I look at it as sort of just the beginning of the more favorable stretch. I mean, it can't get much worse than how the first 10+ days of December are going to play out for most of us, right?

Details are anybody's guess but there has been a pretty good signal for a storm around the 13th-15th. 00z Euro looks ready to bomb the heck out of the thing at 216.

I wish we could fast forward about a week and a half.

Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north. The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.

Well, 18z GFS still looks decent next week. Euro is hanging back a lot of energy in the southwest which is what leads to its tamer and farther north solution.

I mean, it has been warmer than average recently, but this is kind of cheap for Indian summer . Departures like this are pretty useless at this time of year -- still cool

I thought Angry was gonna be all in on the arctic outbreak.

GFS still pretty chilly next week, though the last couple runs are dropping it in farther east.

October outsnowed November in Chicago, which has happened several times since records began. Here are the stats for those years and the resulting seasonal snowfall amounts. Year: Oct snow, Nov snow, Total 1913: 1.9", T, 28.2" 1923: 0.7", T, 27.6" 1929: 0.7", 0.1", 58.2" 1952: 3.0", T, 23.4" 1957: 1.9", 0.5", 20.0" 1967: 4.4", 1.2", 28.4" 1989: 6.3", 3.9", 33.8" 1992: 0.3", 0.2", 46.9" 2019: 4.6", 3.7", ??? This year has a head start on all of the years above with the exception of 1989, but overall, I wouldn't read a whole lot into this. Just throwing it out there.

ORD has 8.4". I think you are looking at only the November total but ORD also had the late October storm.

So not surprisingly given my location compared to yours, the snows have been much better timed with daylight. However temps have been a bit of an issue both times. The Halloween event was too warm to stick to most paved surfaces and the Veterans Day storm did eventually stick to paved surfaces but not at first and the overall total was small.

Op GFS is basically going full blast with arctic outbreak next week. Doesn't have a whole lot of ensemble support though.

I think this may be due to not having a stronger ENSO signal. When it's a stronger Nino or Nina, people can sort of play the odds. Hanging around neutral is a different ball game.

Lock it in, folks. Lock it in.

There were big storms there at the end of October and November in 1991. The first one was bigger though.

Yeah these early snow correlations don't really tell a whole lot, particularly the one I posted. Somebody posted about October snows not being a good sign for Chicago, but then when you extend it to snowiest starts by November 15 (the one I posted in Don's thread) it is much more of a mixed result.