Hoosier

A strong southeast ridge would favor a cutter of some kind, but cutters come in all kinds of strengths. You can get a big neg tilt trough with a very deep surface low or a strung out positively tilted trough with a 1005 mb low. The stronger the southeast ridge, the more height gradient which increases the flow aloft which tends to have a deleterious effect on getting amped up storms. There are probably exceptions but the way he said it makes sense. We have been dealing with a pig ridge down there numerous times this winter and have not seen very many strong/neg tilt systems... coincidence?

This one may at least have a chance to not be a strung out/pos tilt mess as we have seen so often. Typhoon Tip over in the SNE forum makes good points when you can actually understand what he's typing, and one of the things we don't have in this setup is a massively strong southeast ridge which tends to shear/grind up emerging s/w when heights get too high (according to him).

00z Euro really blew that storm up. Hopefully 12z has something.

That was very informative, OHweather. Thanks.

Better get at least 3" tomorrow night. Getting an inch followed by 30+ hours of rain/mostly non accumulating snow and then like 2.5" Fri night/Sat would be a messed up way of getting your first 3" "event"

Groundhog day, which means it has to be farther west.

Nasty. The people that are near or above average snowfall to date should feel fortunate.

So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm?

Yeah, I need northerly flow or at least some minor variation of that to have a shot. So not a common occurrence but not very rare either. Just haven't had a setup where that wind direction and good parameters and long enough residence time have come together.

About 2" It is pretty incredible. I mean, I'm near I-80 and close to Lake Michigan, not in the south. Even if synoptic isn't going favorably, there is a backup option in the form of a decent lake effect band making it here, but nope.

That looks a lot like it does here. Well, I have a little more snow. Still waiting on a 3" snowfall. I don't really keep records and trying to remember your first 3" snowfall each winter is sort of an odd thing, but this has to be among the longest it has taken. And there really isn't one in sight. Some models are trying to tease the lake effect band this far west on Monday, but even if it does make it this far west, I'm not expecting much. Yesterday's storm was made worse by the fact that a number of models (granted not unanimous) were suggesting 3-5" here, which of course didn't pan out.

That was 01-02 when he had that infamous line I think.

Best climo

Using the 16 day op GFS as a counterargument Come on, man

Fantastic post OHweather. Thanks.

Hey, not gonna make the list. ORD is up to 4.8" since November 15.

Where'd this go?

Wow, lol

Looking at Thu-Fri to really start refining the details. With any luck the rug won't get pulled out (if not imby then overall) before then.

I suppose there are no absolutes but generally speaking, I think slower solutions are more likely to end up farther north. In that case, the northern stream can't put as much of a cap on how far north this can come.

Definitely run the risk of a fairly narrow area of snow with this type of evolution, but it has been hard to get a good phase to benefit the heart of the sub or to even get much action in general, so it is nice to see something. The ice potential looks like it could be intriguing but way too early to really dig into that.

Usual caveat about the GEFS not being upgraded but virtually all of them have something.

A second ice storm in the same area out around day 10.

Look at that heavy precip feeding into the ice area. Would probably lose a significant amount to runoff though with those kind of rates unless temps are way below freezing.