Hoosier

I don't want to predict a death toll... this isn't a snowstorm we are talking about. But I will say this. Looking at the modeling and then doing some numbers on a county level, I think it will be somewhat of a victory if we keep the death toll under 1,000 in Indiana and under 100 in Lake county Indiana. fwiw, current statewide number of deaths is 49.

Today is gonna be bad. Already around 400 deaths with a number of states yet to report anything.

Cases in my county jumped by 50% since yesterday. I don't know if a backlog over the weekend could partially explain that so will be very interested to see tomorrow's number.

This model was put out by a group at University of Washington. It assumes social distancing continuing throughout May. Since we may not actually do that, the real curve may end up looking a bit different on the back side. The low end scenario has around 40,000 US deaths by early August. You can see the high end is over 140,000. Again this is with social distancing continuing throughout the period and obviously assuming no effective therapeutic comes along in the meantime. If we went completely back to life as normal then the numbers would be way uglier than this. In the nearer term, the low end scenario still has 1,000+ deaths per day in the US from April 5-19.

This overlapping with allergy season is going to cause some paranoia for sure.

Cases showing up now in employees at the steel mills around here. They are considered essential business though so they remain open.

Found toilet paper at CVS. It's the little things in life.

There have been some questionable posts, at best. Here's a concept. Don't give me a reason to think you (not you Bo) may be a bigot.

You know, I am starting to wonder some things.

You sort of have to look below the surface, but I think we may be seeing the early signs of the social distancing measures and closings having some effect in the US. Maybe not everywhere in the country but the growth of new cases is more linear now in a number of places. Do have to keep in mind that testing is still trying to catch up and we are going to go through a really rough period for a while so definitely no time to be spiking the football. IN is releasing deaths by age group now. This breakdown is similar to what we have seen elsewhere. And have a disproportionately high percentage of men dying, also seen elsewhere.

Agree with that. I do think it would be useful to know if certain genetic traits or ethnicities make one more susceptible, and from what I understand there is ongoing research into that. I am mostly Polish and Norwegian. I checked their current case load/deaths and nothing really stands out.

The plexiglass guards are popping up here too. Haven't seen the tape yet.

So even worse than thought. But it is a good piece of info to have so as to not be alarmed when looking at the trends going forward.

Oof. Over 1100 new confirmed cases in IL since yesterday.

State of Indiana has started releasing the age breakdown of cases. Updated daily. Based on what I've read, the testing has been biased away from younger people/mild symptoms and more toward those with worse symptoms, especially with pre-existing conditions. So with that in mind, it is noteworthy to see this distribution. I think the word is slowly getting around that this isn't just an older person's disease and that younger people can get into real trouble too, even though fatality rates are much lower in people under 50 or 60.

Much quicker testing is supposedly on the way (results in minutes), but availability of those will be a question. Forgot to mention in my last post that there is a possible outbreak in the county jail here... but guess what, they haven't been able to get the tests yet.

Same here. My county also has the 2nd highest number of verified cases in Indiana now, not surprising since it is the 2nd most populated but it did start off slow. I wonder how much is under the surface here because Marion county (home of Indianapolis) has 2x the population but over 8x the number of confirmed cases.

Gonna be near/over 500 US deaths today. Really should be putting to rest any questions about whether restrictive measures were necessary.

Numbers are underdone of course but now have almost 20 states reporting >1000 cases. I am guessing the actual number is 40 something.

One of the Illinois deaths is an infant.

File this under "hope I don't regret this" Late Friday afternoon, the city of Hammond announced that its first employee had tested positive for COVID-19. A Hammond police officer has tested positive for the virus, Mayor Tom McDermott Jr. said, while two others who were in close contact with that officer were sent home. The two other individuals won’t be ordered into quarantine, he said, because the city can’t afford to lose first responders at a time like this. "Just because you've been exposed but are not showing symptoms, I can't have them quarantined for two weeks," McDermott said. https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/ct-ptb-indiana-coronavirus-update-0329-20200328-ke5pcj7qlfgqpemdxnagr6yehe-story.html

Looks like we are going to have 300+ deaths in the US today. That is probably comparable to a day in flu season but the problem is the trend. Some recent modeling projected 2000+ US deaths per day at the peak (April). Hopefully it's not that bad.

What Iceland did is interesting. They tested random people in their population and there was a pretty significant percentage who tested positive for the virus but were asymptomatic. Of course some of those may eventually go on to develop symptoms but it is more data to suggest a substantial asymptomatic component to this thing.

Chicago has a lot of international travel too. And just the sheer number of people living in the Chicago metro area...

Truck driver from New York who knew he had the virus drove to northwest IN anyway. Idiot.