Hoosier

This shouldn't be that difficult. Typing 1 divided by 10 into a calculator results in 0.1 We all know that 1 out of 10 is 10 percent. To convert 0.1 to 10 percent, you move the decimal point 2 places to the right.

Last year you could see the pattern setting up to favor an usually far south early snow, which actually ended up happening at the end of October. This would take it to the next level though.

So obviously there has been a lot of attention on older people and those with comorbidities being at greater risk of serious illness, but what about an individual's risk profile changing throughout the year? I haven't heard much about that. In particular, for people living in northern climates, is your risk of a more significant case elevated in the colder months when you are more likely to have lower vitamin D levels? After all, D is one thing that is thought to play a key role in immune health.

Pretty big number out of IL today, though it can partially be attributed to testing numbers creeping up. Will have to keep an eye on hospitalizations... there was a pretty big jump in those yesterday but need to see upcoming days to ascertain any trend.

Some positive pieces of info too, like certain populations potentially having longer lasting antibodies (and hopefully immunity). Of course I'm not sure how you figure out who is going to have longer immunity.

Good read on covid-19 reinfections and vaccines https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-covid-19-reinfection-means-for-vaccines/

This is an informative read. Some good and bad news on reinfections and vaccines with covid. The takeaway is that we are probably going to be battling this virus for a long time even after the vaccines come out. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-covid-19-reinfection-means-for-vaccines/

There is a collection of states in the West and the Plains that is on the rise. It's not every state in that area of the country though, which could be because if your state has already been hit very hard, you probably have more restrictions in place with more of the population taking it seriously. I remember reading that exposure to smoke from the wildfires could make a person more susceptible to the virus. I assume that meant a higher likelihood of having a more serious case and not a higher likelihood of contracting the virus itself, but I'm not sure. Those states have had a higher frequency of smoke making it to ground level. Another possibility could be the reopening of K-12 and colleges. It is easier to pick out the spikes in smaller population states since the numbers are not high in an absolute sense. A state that goes from 100 cases one day to 200 cases another day is more noticeable than a state that goes from 1200 to 1300.

Here are test numbers, cases and hospitalizations for Indiana courtesy of covid tracking. Other than a recent spike, which I believe was due to a backlog, daily testing numbers have been either side of 10,000. Case numbers have been up and down but sort of hanging in a zone. Hospitalizations have trended down and are at a similar level as mid July. I guess I'd like to know the logic that went into deciding to move to a full reopening. If the bars/restaurants couldn't be fully open in July, then why now? Testing, cases, and hospitalizations are pretty much the same now as they were in most of July.

Indiana is "fully" reopening this weekend. I put that in quotes because I am not sure yet of the scope and if it also means no limits on size of gatherings. I heard there may still be some kind of limit on gathering size. Apparently bars/restaurants/clubs will be able to operate at full capacity as long as social distancing is maintained. This raises an obvious question of how distancing can be maintained if a place is at full capacity. I don't want to get too far into politics, but I really hope this is a science based decision and that there are not outside factors at play. Our governor is up for reelection and a poll that came out about 2 weeks ago showed the libertarian candidate pulling a large number of votes away to the point where the governor's lead is barely outside the margin of error. I assume it is due to people being upset about the restrictions/mask orders that have been in place. So far the governor has resisted the calls to end the mask order. Having the bars/restaurants at 50-75% has been working decently well, and having those go to 100% will likely result in increased cases over time.

I'm sure there is a lot that goes into the model, and it's probably trying to account for cold season influence. I'm wondering if it is so detailed as to factor in more schools eventually reopening for in person learning. I have not been able to find an answer as to how many kids are doing all virtual learning right now but it must be a fairly large number because a number of the larger districts in the country are not having any in person learning yet.

Things would have to spiral pretty bad to get to 400k that fast.

You move north? Euro weeklies do kind of suck, in an absolute sense. Not a whole lot of reliable long range modeling though.

A few weeks ago I mentioned that daily deaths were dropping. You could see it coming when digging into the data. That is the good news. The bad news is that we are still averaging 750+ per day, and right now I am skeptical that the number is going to be able to drop a lot more anytime soon. We better hope our baseline is low going into the holidays, because that is a looming trouble spot for various reasons.

My county passed 10,000 cases the other day. The question is what has the undercount been? Obviously we are not missing as many cases as we were back in March, but we are still missing cases with the amount of asymptomatic carriers and some people with milder symptoms who may not bother getting tested/are attributing it to something else. If the actual number of cases is 10x higher, then it would mean that 20% of my county has had it.

Here is Wisconsin. Cases are up but hospitalizations have also started to increase. Not hugely on the latter but still.

Wisconsin appears to be rising. It looks like a real increase in spread too, not just more testing.

New map is out. More improvement in the western sub. D0 expanded in downstate IL/IN, where it has recently turned very dry. Despite the recent system that brought good rains to some areas, there are still significant 30-60 day deficits.

Death toll hit 200,000 on worldometers today. To think nobody knew what the hell covid was a year ago.

Quite a difference between you and ORD between 9/6-9/13. Surprising because the rains weren't particularly hit or miss type stuff.

Not sure if it's just me, but can't see image.

Already over 1200 cases at Indiana University Bloomington.

2000-01 is easily the most extreme example of a front loaded winter that I have lived through. ORD had 30.9" in Dec and 8.2" in Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr. The difference was even more extreme at my place as I had more snow in December.

Hating on Ohio right out of the gate huh. Agree though. Generally speaking it should be a better winter (relative to average) north/west, but anybody can get a big one. A good example is the OV snowstorm in March 2008, another Nina winter.

Thanks for the reminder. You're in D1 whether you like it or not. Kidding aside, next week's map should be a better indicator overall since it will have factored in the rains that fell since Tuesday.