Hoosier

Did you read that somewhere or is it a personal guess?

Did some math on Wisconsin. If total cases are 5x higher than confirmed (which is a very reasonable possibility, and could even be playing it conservatively), it would mean 30% of the state has been infected. The stuff about transmission rates and how much of a percentage you have to get to start seeing some effects of partial immunity is something I don't know much about. I think the real test will be after Thanksgiving. If there is still no increase in Wisconsin in the weeks after Thanksgiving, and absent mitigations, then it would give credence to the idea that maybe they reached a point where the virus has taken enough people out of the "pool" (at least for a period of time) and knocked the rate of transmission back. Very speculative though.

Looks like we're heading to 1000+ deaths. Bad news for a Sunday and not seen since the spring.

About 6200 cases in IN, which is down a bit from last Sunday.

Think of it this way. We are confirming almost 200k cases per day. Now how many of those are considered "at risk", who knows. Would a 55 year old with hypertension qualify or is that not enough? Would like to be optimistic but you outlined the challenges well.

From what i remember, the supply is limited. They gotta do whatever they can to ramp up production.

I'm sure some people are. The real test is next week, especially Wednesday. But the airport traffic is only one part. If people who normally fly are deciding to drive instead, then it doesn't really matter.

Will be interesting to see the travel data and how it compares to a typical Thanksgiving. Even if it's down 10 or 20 percent, that would still be a huge number of people traveling. The act of traveling may not be so risky if you're being careful... it's what you do when you get to your destination.

Every county in IN has recorded at least 1 death now, and every county has over 200 cases. Several counties in the state have 10,000 residents or less, so slowly but surely it has been getting into the more rural areas.

Dining indoors... no. I've tried to be very careful. Tuesday was the first time I knowingly put myself in a prolonged situation in which I knew that people weren't going to be wearing masks. Like I said, I was masked, and we kept our distance for the most part. It was a pre-Thanksgiving visit, and strategically done on Tuesday because I am planning on getting together with my mother next Saturday to celebrate Thanksgiving (only the 2 of us). The vast majority of people would become symptomatic by the 11th day.

Have been feeling a little off ever since I woke up this morning. Sinuses don't seem quite right. Funny how hyper aware you are now and the first thought immediately goes to whether or not you might have covid. Plus I was remembering how it's been 4 days since I was at my sister's house for a few hours. I was double masked but they weren't wearing any. Certainly will be keeping a very close watch on myself to see if anything changes.

At this point it's no longer newsworthy that the federal government is not stepping up to address the rapidly worsening situation with the virus. Rather, it would be newsworthy if they did. Unfortunately it was not hard to forsee this happening in the post-election period. Call your Senators and put pressure on them to get something done. At least it has a small chance of working, unlike bemoaning it on a message board.

Yesterday was revised to 204k on worldometers after the missing state reported.

Less cases today in IN than last Saturday, but there were 7000 fewer tests. Either because of testing issues or less people feeling the need to get one.

I think we'll get a little over 200k on worldometers if every state reports (and places like TX and CA add in more cases).

You have to remember that a large number of people in NYC died at home instead... from covid and non-covid things. Part of the reason why the field hospitals ended up being largely unused.

We have reached 25k cases in my county, out of a population of almost 486k. Obviously it's a bit of a guessing game on how many cases have been missed since this began, but... If cases are 5x higher than reported, it would mean that 125k, or about 26% of my county has had it. If cases are 8x higher than reported, it would mean that 200k, or 41% of my county has had it. There are false positives and false negatives of course. Also, there may be some people who had covid, moved out of the county and were replaced by people who have not had covid, but this seems like nibbling at the edges type of stuff that would be unlikely to change things in a huge way. At some point you start to wonder if some kind of temporary/partial herd immunity kicks in and slows down the infection rate, but there is no sign of it yet as my county continues to consistently have several hundred new cases per day with some record high days in the mix.

Been very busy today and this is my first time in the thread. Have to say I don't like how it's going, and I imagine it could get more testy with a rising death toll. Do better, or else the thread may be shut down.

Anyone see the Denmark mask study that is making the rounds? It is being used by some to discredit mask wearing. It has several limitations though and did not examine whether an infected person wearing a mask is less likely to transmit to someone else.

They do simulate what amounts to a "let it rip" scenario. That one leads to about 660k deaths by March 1. I heard they were going to start to factor vaccinations in to the projection, but I'm not sure if it happened on this week's update. And if we're being honest... the vaccines aren't going to arrive and take effect in time this winter for the vast majority of Americans. http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

IHME updated. 470k deaths by March 1. Hospitalizations peak at over 160k. This projection is assuming decreased mobility/increased restrictions with time.

Heading into $hit hitting the fan territory with covid. 3 weeks ago we were just starting to approach 100k cases per day, and today we had about 2000 deaths reported. Now it's 150-200k cases per day. What is that going to look like in the death toll a few weeks from now?

3 weeks ago, we were just starting to approach 100k cases in a day. Now we are seeing 150-200k per day and already getting about 2k deaths on the higher reporting days. Truly frightening to think about where things are heading as some of these newer cases eventually become hospitalized and die. I really don't see how we avoid days with a 9/11 type death toll or worse, even if transmission rapidly slows down soon (and it likely won't).

Looks like it will surpass 2000 deaths on worldometers. I don't think it will make it to 200k cases today, but it could happen tomorrow.

What are you supposed to do if you're an essential worker who has preexisting conditions?