Hoosier

The 15z RAP did shift a bit south, so maybe that is the start of something.

Insert Michael Jackson eating popcorn pic Quite a remarkable spread between the globals and non-globals for an event starting tomorrow.

Probably fairly safe to discard the 00z NAM positioning. Not that that's gonna help me a ton, but good news for folks near the southern edge of where the NAM places the better snows.

Yes it does. And with a shearing system/lack of a stronger surface low, I really can't see the 00z NAM positioning coming to fruition. In fact I'd almost bet money against it and would favor something farther south.

Could definitely envision temps overperforming south of front, especially if cloud cover isn't too thick but perhaps even in that case as well. Won't be precipitating south of the front during much of the day and there's not that much snow cover to melt.

I'll go DAB and token zr for your backyard.

Should've gone DAB to cover yourself.

I'm still in single digits for snowfall. Pretty crazy. You're not located THAT far from me. Undoubtedly the lake has helped you out quite a bit.

The overnight snow on my driveway melted a decent amount today, despite heavy overcast and temps in the low 20s all afternoon.

Surprising. I had you pegged as about 4"

Fully bracing myself for only an inch or two, and even that may not come all at once as there could be a break in precip, or a bit of rain/freezing rain depending on temps before it ends as snow. Not counting on the GFS pulling this one out, but I guess anything is possible.

18z NAM bumping south.

Getting pumped for more snow that starts melting quickly again tomorrow.

Given the cold sfc temps, some good lift in the dgz and light winds near the sfc, would think that ratios would at least be 15:1 in the main band.

15z RAP has Moline in the upper teens and Peoria above freezing at 18z Saturday. Nice thermal gradient to work with.

We'll be coming into the outer periods for the hi-res models today. From a pure mby perspective, would be nice to see some support for a farther south solution even though reliability is questionable at this distance.

Cracked double digits for the season. All-time futility record out of play. Snowy times. What more can a winter lover ask for?

I think I'd want to be in the northern burbs. Of Chicago, that is.

Just wait until the end of the month when ORD finishes near or above average in January snowfall, despite the month being like +8 lol. Never been anything like that in January for Chicago, as the warmest Januaries all had well below average smowfall... with many producing barely any snow. January 1914 might be a comparison, but this January looks likely to finish even warmer. I'm not sure how the 6 hour thing came about, but it is what it is. I think it's a reasonable frequency for measurements in most circumstances.

3.5" is the biggest calendar day snow at ORD since 2/2/22

IND had 2.8" on 0.68" liquid, for a ratio barely over 4:1 That's not much higher than you would see with a typical sleet ratio.

Even threw out a mention of 6+

About 2.5" as of around 8:30. Have had melting since then of course.

Plenty of grass tips showing here.

If there is anything that should be in the NAM and hi-res wheelhouse, it may be an event that has a heavy fgen component to it like this. That being said, would still suggest some caution in the outer periods of those model runs.