MUWX

Got down to -13 last night, forecast was for -6. Really glad we missed the freezing rain and power outages.

I’m not really sure what to make of radar right now. There is a pretty big hole in the precip shield right down 44 in Oklahoma.

Just shoveled 75% of my driveway. Very cold. I’d guess 2 to possibly 3 inches. Super light and fluffy snow. Bring on wave 2.

SGFs Afternoon AFD provided exactly zero insight into how this might evolve. Really poor job by them this week.

I’m just hoping we hit 6”. Second huge let down in 2 years.

It’s just not really the heavy snow that Mets have been hyping up. Dry air is probably not the right term, but it’s also not what’s been advertised for days.

It pretty much nailed it here last night with us never being able to saturate but could have been a broken clock situation.

HRRR is really trending further east with the heaviest precip tonight. Not even a surprise at this point.

Hard to fathom how unlucky this area is when it comes to winter weather. Springfield has cut their totals, yet again.

Mets do seem way too reliant on models, its really frustrating. SGF has dropped me from an expected storm total of 14" to an expected total of 9". They missed last night badly. They put out a graphic that showed 2-5" up here and 2-6" area wide, I woke up to .5" on my back deck and I think half of that had blown off my roof. They just weren't even remotely close on that initial round. Models look pretty good for round 2, but we are going to need some good ratios to do anything impressive, unfortunately, when you are dealing with high ratios a little change in QPF makes huge changes.

Just a really bad forecast from SGF and most local Mets, it appears. Too early to call it a bust but SGF has reduced their expected totals in not insignificant way already.

I thought it became pretty apparent yesterday that this wasn’t going to be historic, at least up here. The models pretty much universally caved by 12z yesterday. I still have some hope for round 2, but there’s pretty much no chance we break the 10” mark. Round 1 wasn’t my biggest snow of the year, which was impossible.

Got about a dusting to a half inch here. Pretty disappointing.

Already some mPING reports in NW AR and NE OK. Seems those areas might be moistening faster than expected.

I dont think this storm will bring strong enough sustained winds to see blizzard warnings, but could see some blizzardlike conditions.

I am just going to keep telling myself that models no longer matter because these high res models are really under whelming.

Real world observations seem to be colder and drier than what the HRRR has. That feels like a bad sign.

The HRRR is pretty concerning for anyone north of the Arkansas border. The first wave is really starting to look like a non event for some.

I am not real sure how that is calculated either, but it was putting out some really strange totals on the NAM list night compared to Kuchera, which seemed off.

Fairly sure its an estimated ratio based on the thermal profile, but not confident. Historically its pretty over done, but its a little more accurate in a super cold environment than 10-1 is.

Its probably too late in the game to really be looking into global models, but it is interesting to me that the UKMET has pretty much completely folded and now has a solution very similar to the GFS. Last night the UKMet had .5" all the way to KC and now it barely gets it to I44. Canadian is pretty similar. It wasnt as far north as the UKMet initially, but they are both settling on I-44 being the cut off. HRRR is even drier, first round might be a major flop in SW MO.

It would really be something if the GFS pulls the upset here. It’s sure sticking to its southern idea.

Absolutely unreal. I honestly never thought I’d see something like that here.

Borderline scary nam run for NE OK and SW MO.

Fairly substantial southern shift on the HRRR