Eskimo Joe

Just now, stormtracker said:

Oh man....NE has gotta be sweating.  The Euro is like 2" for them.  Somebody said the UKIE came a little south too

12z UKMET came south and has an absolutely brutal cutoff for NE.

NE thread and Twitter meltdown over the 12z Euro is pretty insane.

Starting to get some Jan 27, 2011 vibes for the NW crew. You have:

1.) A dynamic, strengthening system moving through to the south.

2.) Rain to start so no pretreatment can be put down on roads.

3.) Heavy rates.

SPC runs the HREF at 00z/12z. The 12z 1-hr ensemble mean snowfall rate for northern Washington, Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, and Harford counties is 1" - 1.5" in some spots. While the ground temperatures are warm, those rates will overcome the ground temporarily and probably cause a dicey AM commute tomorrow.

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

If this was just colder with some CAD to start, this would have been beautiful with the "new" track. 700mb low slides right over top of us with the 850mb low just over southern MD. *chef's kiss*

Yup. If only we were 3 to 5 degrees colder.

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Even Brooklyn has vanished.

He's probably busy with tonight's event. IIRC, he works for OKX and they're about to go into warning mode.

Rates and elevation are going to be key tomorrow. Going to be a few haves and many have nots. 

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Stacked cut off low's are always hard to time ejection, but agreed. This is particularly bad. Compounded by the fact it allows time for the "cold" air to filter in from Canada.

Good thing we got the Beltsville site in last week.

NW crew is going to pull a hat trick.

There go the watches

NS energy starting to get sampled by the upper air network. Suddenly it shifts south.

+20 high temp and +12 low temp at BWI in early February. . .

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I feel like that is a huge win. The past several years had 0 winter, outside of a couple below average days. That week in Jan was a fluke. The 2016 storm was a fluke during an otherwise warm winter as well. It's become pretty easy to have a year round growing season with a simply build greenhouse. 

Stockholm Syndrome. We're so f*cked.

8 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Until proven otherwise, nothing has changed my view that this region can no longer get WSW events outside of January.

Tend to agree. We're down to 1 week of winter at best anymore.

18z NAM is so damn close.

If you really want a clear sky, then you're better off going to Texas or the southwest.

27 minutes ago, snowfan said:

GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change.

Preview of future winters. We're in so much trouble in the long term. BWI was +17 on a daytime high yesterday and all you heard from folks was how great it was and "I hope it never snows again". 

Just now, DDweatherman said:

UK low is 993 right off OCMD, you'd think that wouldn't be so bad...

No cold air.

12z GEFS please and thank you.

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only 

I'll be in Emmitsburg for this event next week. Hopefully we have enough elevation for that event.

Man that's nice. Would essentially rescue winter for most folks.

We look colder at 850 and 925 mb on the 12z GFS. Certainly better.