Sciascia
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Currently in Harwood Heights. Went outside a little after 3 to grab something for work & nice to see it already snowing. Going to ride my 2 days ago call of 9.9” at ORD, but I think I’ll be a touch low.
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Alek’s got some winter pot holes he’s looking forward to filling with all this cement coming.
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Current GFS on top, GFS-Elect on bottom.
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This ain’t no WxBell Kuchera map, neither.
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GFS-Elect seems to also have the earlier precip onset that the HRRR had for N IL. Where forecasts have projected a close-to-6pm start time, this has almost 3 inches on the ground come 6pm.
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Ah. Well then we’ve just got good Mets that work in our area.
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I’m going to assume @RCNYILWX was part of the Q&A that the NWS Chicago Twitter page had tonight. Looking through, some good, fair, and well rounded answers for 240 characters. For anyone who wishes to read through:
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Thank you; and come on...what’s wrong with letting people think they’ll get almost 2 feet of snow?
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Anyone have the 18z Euro?
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Yeah, my P&C just changed as well. Went from 6-10 Sat night to 4-8. Maybe they’ve got info we don’t?
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The P&C for Elmwood Park is 6-10” for Saturday alone, with 90% snow listed for Sunday & 50% Sunday night. So 8-12” seems with what they’re kinda leaning towards outside of the warning text. I agree it is a bit of an oversight to be pushing two separate low-max levels.
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P&C in for Elmwood Park where I will be over the weekend. Interesting they haven’t thrown any numbers onto the Sunday snow yet.
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I’m supposed to work until 7pm Saturday. May be a tricky ride home if it’s going to be a wall of snow at onset.
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12z HRRR likely doing it’s thing of overdoing lake-adjacent amounts. But would be incredible to see downtown Chicago rack up a foot of snow by 6am.
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6z HRRR has this happening between 6pm Sat & Midnight Sat night/Sun:
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06z NAM kinda drier in terms of snowfall amounts over N IL. It backed off 1 inch 18z to 00z, and now another inch or so from 00z to 6z. Here’s Chicago’s Kuchera (Pivotal) NAM snow amounts since 12z yesterday: 12z: 12.8 18z: 11.5 0z: 10.4 6z: 9.6
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6pm seems to be locked as the start time in N/NE Illinois.
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All this snow in only 6 hours!
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Nearly 2 inch per hr rates at 51hrs
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00z NAM seems to be similar to 18z at Hr51
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I’ll call 9.9” at O’Hare. Missing double digits by the slimmest of margins.
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The GFS-Elect (V16) showing a more similar solution & proving it’s in favor of a peaceful transfer of (model) power from the current GFS.
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$$$
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NAM run was colder, as the Kuchera numbers are higher than 10:1, where it’s been the reverse on most runs up until this one.
