raindancewx

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 100-180W warmth, 0-300m down for Jan/Feb/Mar. 2026: +0.49 / +1.15 / +1.28 Closest Matches since 1979 - all too cold v. CFS/Canadian for US temps in April. 1997/2015 are close - but 1997 is more impressive since it followed multiple cold ENSO years while 2015 followed...a weak El Nino. We've warmed up way faster than 1982 or 2023 as well. 2019: +0.59 / +0.94 / +1.19 2015: +0.15 / +0.83 / +1.52 1997: +0.56 / +1.00 / +1.17 1990: +0.78 / +1.08 / +1.14 Blend: +0.52 / +0.96 / +1.26 You can verify if "El Nino" ish stuff is happening without the US data. Japan maps anomalies monthly with a bit of a lag. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/climatview/frame.php?&s=7&r=4&d=0&y=2026&m=2&e=4&t=1000&l=5115&k=0&s=7

Actually, 1972 qualifies as well. Followed two cold ENSOs, high solar, negative AMO, negative PDO. 1968 and 1972 are the best matches on the variables - +ENSO, following two -ENSOs, high solar, -AMO, -PDO.

The El Ninos following two cold ENSOs (not 1 or 3 or more or many neutrals), with high solar are relatively rare - 1968. 1982. 1997. 2009. 2018 each El Nino follows two cold Ensos in a row. Only 1968, 1982, 1997 are relatively active for solar. PDO is negative in 1968 with AMO negative. Both look likely/possible, we've got the cold flipped C from Iceland to all the way around West Africa. Stupidly cold in March as a blend but I doubt those three years will work. Conceptually, you have: 2026: -AMO, -PDO, El Nino, High Solar, after two cold ENSOs for this winter. That's like 1968, next closest is 1982/1997/2009/2018. Anti 2026: +AMO, +PDO, La Nina, Low Solar, after two warm ENSOs for the winter: That's 1995, 2016, 2020 Would look like this in concept - probably not as severe in reality. Somewhere between 2023-2024 and the above image is my guess.

April 1982 and April 1997 were very cold US-wide. CFS has the opposite. If it isn't drunk on its own delusions, you'd say April 2026 looks like a blend of 1963, 2002, 2015, 2019, minus 1982, 1997. Conceptually, the big El Nino following big La Nina with low solar is a very cold winter here. We don't have that combo for this winter. We have high solar, good El Nino following weak La Nina/neutral. It's probably more of a very wet winter here than very cold. More likely: 1997 and 1982 already had dominant impacts on the global pattern by April, and the upcoming El Nino does not. April on the CFS looks a lot like winter 2004-2005, if the greatest warmth was fully shifted south.

There has been a signal for a while for a good system in the SW around 3/5-3/9. It's been showing up intermittently on the models. Time frame is correct for a repeat of the mid-January system that triggered (or emerged from) the pattern change. Doubt anything resembling the true outcome will show for another 3-5 days though.

Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions. January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January

The Canadian doesn't have a +WPO for February. My guess is its understating the cold again nationally. +WPO is low pressure NE Asia/NW Pacific to the north of high pressure SE/Asia/SW Pacific. We don't have that and have not had it. This is the +WPO, its opposite of the winter - Also, subsurface verified +0.47 for 100-180W 0-300m depth in January. That's not a La Nina, sorry. December was only -0.03, so the subsurface is almost certain to finish quite warm for DJF, which explains the active subtropical jet, lack of cold overall in the NW/Plains, lack of SE ridging, etc etc. January 2025 was -1.33 for the same subsurface reading for what its worth. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

The Canadian misplaced the warmest area of the US for January and underestimated the cold nationally. Once today is in, January should end up about 2F warmer than what I had with my analogs from October for most of the US. Locally this month has felt like February. Some cold spells, some warmth, some snow. Its +4F for January, but nothing like the +10F for December.

Subsurface for Nino 3.4 is now nearly absent colder than normal waters. Most of the Eastern US is going to finish colder than average by month end, or no warmer than +1F. Cold has retrogressed hard to the West this month as I've been saying for a while.

This was a horribly forecast storm for me. Five days out we weren't supposed to see any rain or snow. Then heavy snow all night Friday to all night Saturday. Then rain Friday and snow Saturday. It ended up being rain very late Friday into Saturday, with snow starting just before 11:00 pm on Sat and lasting into Sunday morning. Still, it looks like the city got 1-3 inches of the snow. Our Oklahomies did pretty well too - With the snows included today, Albuquerque is nearing 1.20 inches of precipitation for January - near an average Dec-Feb for winter - but in 25 days. Dec-Feb is over 1.4" already, and long-term average is 1.3". Activity in the NE Pacific implies more storminess for the SW US later in February. January 2026 is currently the third wettest January in the last 100 years (1926-2025 basis), and 5th wettest January on record (since 1893). Wettest January since 2005. Also the top 25 wettest Nov-Jan locally since 1893 at ~1.95" (mean is ~1.3"). A lot of the eastern US is now on the verge of flipping to finishing January cold which is in line with my outlook from October. We'll see if we get there. Locally, this is easily the warmest winter on date so far (+5F warmer than the prior warmest Dec 1-Jan 24) - but snow is not really meaningfully below average with the extra moisture. We're at ~4" instead of ~4.5". Most of the ski-resorts have 1-3 foot bases now as well.

Warmest area of the country remains Plains/Northwest this month, with Montana running +10 in many spots. Locally we're down to +6F or so, but should drop closer to normal starting tommorow. Cold has reasserted itself over the East & Plains, and I still expect gradual retrogression to the West as we approach March. I thought January would be pretty cold in a lot of the East. No longer looks like a terrible call as cold continues to dump into the US. Notice any resemblance to the last week? Like I say, I'm annoyed it took a week longer than I expected, but hey we got there.

I wasn't trying to claim the NW has had some epic snow season - just that the bottom part of the smiley outline will fill in now. The circled area. It's been far too warm in the Northwest for meaningful heavy snow anomalies. Even within that context though, you can still see the general shape of what I outlined held up, despite the warmth. This southern portion of the storm track pattern will shift north somewhat in Feb-Apr and some of the West will do better in that time frame. I'd imagine CO will catch up a bit then.

For what it's worth.

The early CPC outlook with TX/OK/KS/NM warm only marginally favored for precip for Jan 21-27 isn't looking so great now. When the cold retrogresses it goes hard. We've got some -50 wind chills coming in the Plains in some of the places that were running +10F winter to date. Looks pretty damn cold here now for a little while. Average high is ~48-49 late January for ABQ.