so_whats_happening

DCA: +2.6 NYC +4.3 BOS: +5.1 ORD: +2.5 ATL: +.9 IAH: -0.8 DEN: +0.6 PHX: -0.5 SEA: -0.8

Lancaster:10.4 Harrisburg: 18.7 Williamsport: 19.3 Tamaqua: 20.6 Clearfield: 13.3 State College: 21.4 York: 15.3 Gettysburg: 16.9 Carlisle:20.6 Gonna throw Reading for shiggles 16.1

Current Obs of KBWI: Quite windy over here right now having 13 knots gusts to 20knots out of the ENE Temp 32/19 Was chatting with a met from OPC and we both were in agreement this is the beginning portion of the arctic air. Would really like to see that dew point drop to the low teens say 12-13F to show the depth of the cold pool. Line sits around AVP/Allentown/ to just south of NYC with that nose of arctic air. Low temps and matching low dew points, single digits. Lets have some fun nowcasting today can't wait to just see how it all unfolds regardless of what I get back at home in the Lancaster area.

I would like to take a better look at the skew T's for this but wanna wait until maybe 00z tonight to see if everything is going to hold. So far the 12z runs have held steady and come more in line with each other.

If I still worked there I could tell you. I actually was supposed to work that shift but called my boss to tell him that morning there was already 5" of snow on the ground lol. Next day couldnt go in either because they couldnt plow the streets. Took them 2 days to get the city back to normal, lancaster that is and they got more NW of us. I would be impressed if we see more than 12:1 during the height of the storm for areas around harrisburg. Most should see the average 10:1 and then maybe getting better as the colder air continues to filter in. I say maybe 14:1 on the outskirts to help with totals otherwise more than that is not impossible but probably unlikely.

Hey thats awesome, I went to Millersville as well for my Met degree. During my time there was one student who had gone into minoring in Space weather, Mike something. I do not unfortunately know where his path has taken him other than he went onto graduate school to broaden his understanding of space weather; I believe he was in talks with the folks out in boulder, CO during the one space weather outings the class had taken. Yea study hard try to get into internship opportunities or research excursions to help give you a foot into something you may want to do. DeCaria was a tough one to deal with in thermodynamics but he usually does what he can to work with you. Sikora was my advisor and an awesome forecasting teacher he had helped me land a job coming out of school, not exactly where I was hoping but it essentially helped me get a foot in the door and meet new people that could help me in the long run. Stay strong push through and have fun with it was truly some good times going to Millersville.

oh my its been sooo long since I have come to this. Im hoping to set my sights on rejoining come the new year!

Yes Millersville is ever expanding their programs now introducing emergency planning and I believe a few others are in prospects down the road. I would go with your gut. Meteorology is a tough field to get into but dont let that take you down. Network yourself study hard to understand the content and if it is something you truly love to do you will not regret it. As for when you graduate start looking into internships Junior year make yourself known in many of the businesses (in private sector and government) go to conventions (AMS is great) get as much experience as you in different aspects of meteorology without running yourself crazy, again the material can be challenging at times. I personally was unsure what the field would look like my senior year I often looked around at different job prospects, many of which have been in the broadcasting portion of meteorology, which if that is what your interest is in there are quite a few openings. I myself wanted to do forecasting and more along the research/behind the scenes type of job but in order for me to do that in mainly the government I needed to go for masters which is in the near future just not the right time right now for me. The private sector is great but the openings arent quite as open and sometimes can be rigorous, went for an accuweather position did the whole interview out of 50 or so candidates 6 were chosen to come to the HQ to do an interview and get to know them took tests, did interviews, wrote out discussions and of the 6 two were chosen from different schools all around the country. Unfortunately the downside of first time being there was the unsure what to expect and found out after the process the pay rate which is comparable I feel to many other private sector forecasting companies for starting just ended up not working out in my favor but I didnt let that get me down. I spoke with my advisor and he guided me into the job I currently have which is working for the FAA as a weather observer. Could not thank him enough and even though it is not forecasting it gives me the freedom to do some research myself and better fine tune my forecasting skills in different locals of the country. Forecasting will still be a passion of mine as well as storm chasing but this is a more practical thing for me at this point until I am done with a masters degree to better make myself standout in the crowds of folks that go into the application process. It is no guarantee of course, but I love learning more and more about the field and will continue advancing my knowledge whether at this job or the next. Hope this helps

No worries always wonders we arent fully sure of yet in this changing climate. Cool stuff to try and get an idea for in the future with such fairly drastic patterns changing and locking in for time periods up there. And thanks for the info on AMO ill have to go back and check things out then but that is a concern even with the change that things might have already changed enough to counteract that -AMO phase.

I feel it was probably already mentioned but what may be the reasoning of the prolonged low pressure over the CAB and into Canada/Greenland area? I think I had seen the idea of the late SSW being a possible reason. It is interesting to see of course and does this mean that this upcoming winter season may feature something different than we have seen in recent years? Not necessarily recovery by any means but less harsh conditions then we have seen. Also with the possibility of AMO flipping or showing signs it may what impact will this have in ice conditions particularly on the Atlantic side. Thanks for any comments trying to get better at understanding what is occurring up in Arctic

could always give meted a try. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/ Sign up for free and start taking whatever might peak your interest. As for starting from the beginning im sure you can find a PDF of something out there. Meteorology Today is a good book for basics.

Well it did hit lowest extent maximum in the middle of winter, from recorded data, so that is enough in itself let alone the still distinct lowering of ice volume is still quite noticeable. Recently it has been about on par with refreeze nothing too crazy from what I have seen thus far so, rather uneventful but hey thats a good thing so far we will see how it plays out in about a month cause things started weird in mid november.

We need those warmer subsurface waters to calm that are being pumped into Arctic or massive release of heat from those waters, which seems unlikely more of chipping away process, as well. System cant sustain something if the region it is at has to work with has also been on average 1-2C warmer.

Gotcha thanks for the little tidbit on the interactive graph and yea i have frequented that forum quite a bit to get an idea and has immensely helped.

Where do you get your area data from? and im guessing the 4.61 was from today? because last i saw it was 4.636 but yes Jaxa is hovering still right around that 4.48-4.5 region so yes that will have to be monitored. Thanks for the thoughts still trying to understand all about the arctic and its influences among many other things.

If I am seeing it right it looks like 9/9 for extent at 4.47 according to this one https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent NSIDC has 4.636 as of 9/13 with slight gains yesterday https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ Cant seem to find a good interactive map for area or volume but im pretty sure someone posted area may have been back at the beginning of september?

Since we are getting real close now we have to ask the question do we see the large increase in extent as we have seen over the past couple of years at the beginning of the season or do we actually allow some heat to escape into the atmosphere from the ocean.

Basically the apex of summer heating up there is currently happening. Makes sense also have noticed that the Atlantic side of the arctic has been experiencing rather cool surface waters as of late is this due to the melting process that occurs or is it something else that could be causing this because on the Pacific side near chuchki(SP?) sea there are have been persistent anomalous warm waters for quite a while.

curious what causes the low around the beginning of july to not continue does it have to do with at this point most of the outer regions have melted out and you just have the core which usually maintains?

The hardest part of this is not here or in many 1st world countries that can have the opportunity to change their energy systems, its a matter of if they want to or not and then that just brings in political ideals and whether they will be able to make money off it or not. It is countries like India in particular as they are trying to become a foot hold in the world economy but do not quite have the means to sit there and give many of their citizens the basics of electricity and heating/cooling as needed. So many go to cheaper forms of energy such as oil and coal to help their needs and places like India easily rank 3rd in emissions in the global sense with China being number 2 and they have the worse emission laws out there they just do not seem to care at all. They even went as far as to say issues such as smog, which is known to be a human caused weather phenomena that happens from stagnation in the pattern, as a natural disaster. How can one sit there and say this occurs naturally when we know what its being caused by. So in esssence yes in thought it seems fairly simplified to change over to something clean but the reality is if regions are not willing to change many will also follow suit and hold the ideas of using fossil fuels. We would need to be one of the leaders in this change but we are too far gone in politics for this to occur right now. I believe India is trying to take great leaps in fixing this and honestly if a developing country is able to accomplish such a feat there is no reason the developed countries can not produce. If you go around and ask many citizens of the developed countries a good majority would say a change needs to happen but yet we continuously put ourselves back in the hole in which we are trying to dig out of. It will happen it is just a matter of when. I think if we talk anymore about stuff like this we should open a thread or DM as we are straying away from arctic sea ice talk.

Regionally yes there have been quite the dramatic temp rises, as we all know the arctic for one has been the leader in the largest anomalies. One thing though that can really shake up the warming idea is a simple volcanic eruption in mid to high latitudes, though only temporary and very variable in when it will happen, but it just goes to show how sensitive the atmospheric changes can occur and how quickly they can take place. While the release of GHG pollutants and the up tick over the past 30-40 years can certainly make the argument with a nice increase in temps I feel there is something that is taking place that we are not quite catching onto. We may be in the midst of an amplification pattern that we have not experienced before. Anomalous PDO pattern another record setting ENSO, but the el nino pattern lasting for almost 3 years with not much return to a cooler la nina pattern after the el nino. We have seen quite the heat pump to the arctic since, as someone had pointed out, 2005 time frame when things really took a hit in the Arctic. Larger meridonial flow moisture increasing temps wont decrease if we have a higher moisture content. Im still unsure about the whole idea AGW I feel it has impacted somewhat but was just a trigger to cause other things happen in as we see it a shorter time span there are just too many variables and too many uncertainties that have yet to be figured to know for certain how things will play out in the near future. We should take actions to reverse our pollution for sure but we are too uncertain of the future and predictions are just predictions to give us a better idea. Just thoughts from what I have gathered thus far.

So just by taking a quick glance while from your data being presented yes it looks as though the temps are fairly close 1940's but what seems interesting is that this temperature anomaly has been steady since what looks like 2007 timeframe.