so_whats_happening

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

+1.2     +1         +.9          +.8     +1.2     +1.4       +1.5      +.3      -.2

Saw it in Waco Tx and had clear skies during  the totality. Got to even see the solar flares. Was amazing to see what everything looked like during that window of time. Can't wait for the next one in 20 years.

On 3/27/2024 at 9:55 PM, KChuck said:

I've been following the weather closer the last week. I've got a reservation in Medina, NY area from the 6th leaving back for home on the 10th. Going to overnight in Lancaster, Pa on the way up from North Carolina. Waiting a day to start out for home after the eclipse. Learned my lesson in 2017 when traffic from Greenville, SC was downright atrocious. It took us around 12 hours to make a 3½ hour trip due to a jack-knifed semi. My wife's nerves were shot, mine not much better. Tried to find a hotel to escape the Interstate and overnight in but they were all booked. Wound up going all of the way home. Medina does not appear likely to be in a congested area as far as I can tell as it appears to be relatively rural. I'll feel somewhat comfortable doing a short chase if necessary. Don't want to get in crowds as wife has an autoimmune disease. If it looks like a front will come thru a few days before and wash out the eclipse I can cancel and get my reservation deposit back. Our reservation is about dead center in the track, so we won't have to travel anywhere if the weather cooperates. I'm using the following link to keep up with forecasts from one link.

https://eclipsophile.com/eclipse-day-weather/

Have fun in Lancaster!

On 3/29/2024 at 1:03 PM, eyewall said:

yeah I am supposed to go to Texas for it. I am definitely nervous.

Yea Im actually getting a little nervous about TX right now.  ULL ejecting out of the SW with return flow setting up a day or two before. It would be cool to experience the cumulus towers beforehand and they all but disappear with the eclipse to come back as the sun starts to shine again. Ill be in Austin area during the time and can move around as we get closer to get a better idea of how things will fall out.

21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really cold in the subsurface now. For comparison, this may rival the strongest subsurface anomalies we saw in this past El Nino. 

I was just about to post this quite the increase in negative anomalies (or decrease, however you choose to look at it) in just 5 days. This also seems farther west then past events have shown which end up around 120-140 W currently this is sitting just east of the dateline.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.3     +1.6    +2       +2.6     +1    +.8       +.8      0      +.4

Happy Easter Everyone. Wanted to get this done before Vacation starts.

5 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

We're nearing the end of that fabulous period in the Rockies I call "bullshit Spring". It runs from 2/15-4/15. High elevation zones often get smoked with heavy snow, high wind and frequent rapid temperature changes.

Once 'bullshit Spring' ends the next item to look for is when heat arrives in the Southwest. La Ninas that see early heat in Albuquerque (90F by 5/10 or so) tend to be relatively cold winters in the Southwest with more frequent cold waves. Given the harmonic tendencies of recent months, I actually think May could be fairly cold here. We've actually not hit 70F yet here, even though late March average highs are about 65F. 

I was checking some observations in the highlands of Mexico the other day. Nino 1.2 has flipped negative v. averages. Typically the vacating of excess heat in that zone accompanies unusually dry air getting fairly close to the equator. I saw some dew points as far South as 15-20N in the teens (F) in recent days. Normal dew points are ~40(F) ish in that area of the world in March. 

It will be interesting to see how things go to mid April. Western ridging around the GOA with a -NAO blocking flow sounds like more troughing into the west through early April and severe weather into the plains.

Here is a 90 day coralreef animation to start things off.

There does actually seem to be some cooling of the WPAC warmth just under Japan in the recent month. This should as Raindance mentioned help with a weakening of values for the -PDO coming up. Let us see what happens.

Some pretty solid subsurface negative anomalies showing up. Ill look to keep track of this probably starting next month. Warmth at the surface still holding on decently near the dateline, we will see for how long though.

Models are still having trouble with the MJO forecast I could see a weaker bout for 3/4 coming up here after 1/2 before it picks up again for 6/7/8. It will be interesting to see what this does as we get closer to summer time with the hurricane season. Slowly looking more and more Nina like aloft, VP starting to head back toward the Maritime Continent.

Just as a last look with monthly TAO data for the El Nino, may update for March in the near future.

Just to give some visuals for down the road. I do find it interesting the central Pac seems to be still holding on to the warmth. It never really cooled down during the El Nino stretching back to just NE of Australia. Lets say it got to about average in some of the areas west of the dateline while directly NE of Australia dipped briefly to some negative values.

Edit: may have to refresh page to get to go in motion.

Probably a bit too early to know for sure but there does seem to be some see-sawing situation between the poles. Will be interesting to watch it over the next 5 years.

Thickness levels I don't think can recover meaningfully going forward but we shall what happens with extent (not that this is all too important in the long run).

11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Tracking anomalies so far ... 

 

____________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN_ PHX _ SEA

______ (17d) ___________________+9.5 _+10.0 _+6.3 __+10.4 _+5.3 _+6.2 __ +0.6 _-0.9 _-1.6

______ (p31d anom) ___________+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +3.5 __ +6.5 _ +3.5 _+4.0 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+0.5

 

____________________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV

Snowfall _______________________ 8.0 _ 7.5 _ 9.7 ____ 21.2 _ 22.9 _ 61.7 ___ 35.1 _ 0.3 _ 38.9

 

well then that is one pitiful snow season. Had a feeling it would be bad but not this bad.

15 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2022-23 was a bit weird. Early on, it looked like it was going to dip into a strong la nina (like 1975-76), but it stayed a moderate la nina for the 3rd straight year, then dissipated quickly and transitioned into a strong el nino the following season.

Shame the MEI is going away as even though ONI showed about -1 to -1.2, MEI saw this as a near strong/ borderline super Nina. In fact the second strongest in the last 40 or so years, 2010-11 being the strongest -MEI and 1989 coming in at a close third.

While La Ninas aren't great for the east we can still manage something at least interior tends to get the brunt, last year was just a whole different situation. If we do indeed go full bore La Nina the winters following tend to not be terrible after following a strong Nino. So we shall see that is also based on the idea the PDO doesn't stay extremely negative but we are still not seeing much change in that department.

Also welcome to the boards.

Gotta say it was pretty cool to see this happen. Im not sure if it is connected somehow but watch off Panama and then a few days later west of the Galapagos.

Well MEI data will no longer be updated...

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

6 hours ago, chubbs said:

From Kris Karnauskas twitter, tropical mean SST anomaly averaged on latitude bands. Shows the impact of long-term warming and enso on tropical and sub-tropical SST. Ninos warm the tropics and sub-tropics while La Nina cooling is more focused on the tropics with less impact on the sub-tropics.  The subtropics haven't been the same since the 15/16 nino. We'll see what the aftermath of this nino is.

edit: Added a plot showing trends for the east and west Pacific.  Of course the east Pacific has the biggest enso effects.

Very cool. You can see from your first picture we took a step up in the early 2000s and something just went nuts around the 15/16 Nino. Is it possible that in order to keep as close to balance as it can be that we see a multi decadal -PDO state and potentially more La Ninas to try and 'revert' things? 

Edit: Also wanted to add it is interesting to note that the La Nina SST anomaly seems to be not nearly as intense over time even with impacts still being almost as potent as they were 30-40 years ago. I wonder if this is due to the warming of the surrounding oceans having an impact on the overall SST anomaly yet when the background is still La Nina we still feel the episodes regardless of ONI values. Example being we hit barely moderate level on the third year La Nina yet the MEI would suggest we were near super Nina levels of impact. 2010-11 gave us near strong Nina levels via ONI and MEI but this was also before things changed with the 15/16 Nino.

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Regardless, Id have to imagine this year is rock bottom for the east.

 

We havent been doing as widespread poorly in the midwest/Lakes for the most part, but this winter has to be rock bottom for the upper midwest especially. Even though they have had good snow years recently (just last year in fact), this winter is so unlike anything Ive ever seen for those places. To unseat the historic warm winter of 1877-78 (also a strong Nino) as many did is crazy. And I have NEVER seen a winter with near bare ground in northern MI in Feb.

This year while in many areas wasn't great at all, there was one spot that managed to do well. PA was the hot spot for average to above average snowfall this year and at that a rather localized area from about Scranton to Allentown and back to about Harrisburg/ State College area. We managed about 18-19" on the winter which is below average on our 26" yearly snowfall. This was not a bad winter for our neck of the woods but last winter was horrific (0.9" for the entire winter). 2020/21 was our last above average winter (~34") and that came with a nice storm in February and a nice event from the huge storm that pummeled BGM back in December 2020.

At this point im rooting for a neutral event, while one year I would love to have a revisit of 09-10 pop up im on the lets get to average train at this point.

I have been noticing though when we do get these marginal events things are just a bit too warm for us anymore when we used to be able to manage to stay slightly on the cooler side of things. I do wonder if the warm Atlantic is causing this issue. That hurts us immensely on those quick pickups of 2-4" that would help get to near average.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

2.1         2.8         3         4.4         .8         1          -.8        -2.3     -.6

On 2/12/2024 at 7:04 AM, LibertyBell said:

Question is can anything happen to the Gulf of Mexico to stop the Gulf Stream?  And can climate change eventually affect the earth's rotation somehow-- or would we need an even bigger disaster, like a meteorite/asteroid strike or big earthquake or tsunami to alter it?

Probably nothing to actually stop it as it is a wind driven current but what could potentially slow it down would be lessening that temperature within the origination spot, GOM. It would need to be mass amounts of heat removal or tons of fresh water input both of which are rather hard to achieve in a timespan to consistently happen. So you get ebbs and flows where some seasons are warmer and some seasons cooler so there is some regulation of overall gulf stream motion but not full stoppage.

If we have giant asteroid/ meteor or the earth stops spinning we would much bigger issues to worry about. I do find it interesting though that the gulf stream would take a more southerly route if AMOC shuts off I guess this does make sense though as there would be nothing really to help 'finish' the current around Iceland if there is little to no sinking occurring in this region. Would mean the Atlantic waters south of 50N would warm rather drastically over years.

Interestingly enough there doesn't seem to be much of a Labrador current or a Canary current over the last few years. Maybe we start to see a more pronounced current in these regions again instead of this highly weakened state?

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Tropical systems bring excessive heat from the tropics and move it to higher latitudes. With the Arctic warming much more strongly than lower latitudes due to AGW, there's less heat imbalance. Shouldn't that factor alone lead to reductions rather than increases in overall tropical activity?

This has been a topic of discussion between me and another colleague. Tropical activity is the balancer to bring heat and moisture to high latitudes but with that temp increase in the northern oceans it is not nearly as imbalanced. He mentioned one thing that has increased dramatically over the last decade or so are heavy rain events. So in other words the Earth seems to be trying to rebalance itself in a different way than what it used to through tropical activity due to this gradient not being nearly as prolific. How it plays out going forward is really anyone's guess. It probably still does lead to stronger storms when they do form cause of the amount of fuel but overall less tropical activity may be the way to go or we see one basin just go bonkers while the others stay silent instead of spreading out the activity over the basins.

There is no reason the WPAC should have had nearly half the typical amount of tropical activity in an El Nino year. The southern hemisphere has been on a decline for quite some time with overall tropical activity as well. There should not have been as active of a year in the EPAC at the tail end of a triple dip La Nina. Something just seems off right now with how it 'should be'.

That is not to say this year won't have an above average hurricane season in the Atlantic though. While it is not all too uncommon we did have quite a few storms more than we typically would see in an El Nino year in the Atlantic, even with them following a similar path to a typical El Nino year (north and OTS). The Atlantic is right back up to levels we saw last year when it was extremely warm and for it to be at this time of year is a little worrisome to see as temps should only go up from here on. It looks like a decent tri-pole setup as well, so it should be rather interesting to see what comes of this.

On 2/17/2024 at 6:00 PM, mitchnick said:

Anybody still watching the 10mb for SSW? Today EPS show it happening in a few days, recovering briefly, then switching direction again for an extended period. That's crazy.

We are nearing the typical final warming and destruction of the SPV so that makes sense. If I remember correctly it takes place around mid march to mid April some years earlier some later. Although im not sure this bout toward mid march will do all too much later on we should see a brief cooling take place the first week of March from the current weakening. Maybe we can pull out a last minute surprise?? but im banking on most for about 40N southward being virtually done with winter besides a cold shot. 

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory. 

Increase in WPAC tropical activity would definitely help in taking out that persistent warmth around Japan, unfortunately it probably means a record year or strong typhoon after strong typhoon to really churn up those waters.

I would love to see shipping lanes overlayed on SST anomaly maps in both the Atlantic and Pacific to see if that reduction in sulfur really is playing a large role in these regions. Also bathymetry is tough subject but I am curious if there is indeed something in the subsurface in these regions helping to enhance the oceanic heatwaves more than just stuck patterns.

On 2/11/2024 at 9:21 AM, bowtie` said:

I do not see any spaghetti lines anywhere near where we are right now.

It is no wonder with a look like this

I haven't looked much into this yet but will be interesting to see what happens. I do find it weird we haven't had much in the way of neutral years, 2019-20 being a failed Nino allowed us to have a warm neutral year. Im one for rooting for a neutral year in between these Nina/Nino episodes especially going from a triple year La Nina to strong/super Nino the last time this sort of remotely happened was in the 70s so it is not unheard of just rare to see.

A tell tale sign for sure will be how this spring into summer transition will we get more plains severe weather outbreaks? will we get a warm SE coming up in early spring? will the hurricane season be above normal with activity actually reaching the US? I would assume the gulf and Caribbean will be much more active/conducive this year for landfall potential.