StormchaserChuck!

WOW

If this happens in Feburary, it's bound to get wet (trend wetter)

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I need to know how many pills have you taken today? Is this one of your “good” days?

mm.. I can do anything. It's snowing all the way back to Illinois though, dry though. Good midWinter -NAO setting up

love how far west the back end is pivoting.. could be 10-15" here

Could be a record -AO start to Winter through February, love to see how this evolves 

-PNA pattern is really wet, if that's what happens

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

 

 

Based off some comments from HM along with other modeling I would speculate the EPS might cave to the GEFS longer term colder ideas. 

 

Incredible that the Stratosphere is so warm too.. we could go -NAO through February. (I'd be interested to see what happens with that in the last week of the month.) 

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Deepest - AO is yet to arrive.  Very impressive dive from already negative values. 

 

 

 

Just incredible that it's so warm out.. goes with my theory that the Arctic ice real melt is lagging what it really is.. like, you know that by 2035-2040.. so things happen then, ya know? 

I don't like it.. it lifts north too far west, and that will only trend greater because of the atmosphere right now. If it snows, it will be in the mid to upper 50s a few days later, one of those deals, if not it will be a warm February. 

Dude.. A -500dm west-based -NAO on January 26th, and it doesn't snow, it rains? It's like 50 degrees. The Pacific Ocean is a current that is closing in general, unless something more volitiale happens. I'm about to give up on this hobby. We could still see the occasional blizzard, but it will only last for like 2-3 days. 

Check it out though, as we get a strengthening -trend-subsurface temperatures, with +trend-surface temperatures, monster -PNA of +500dm happens

I'd be more impressed if the subsurface cold pool was not strengthening as it pulled back. (research shows the subsurface of ENSO has more + correlation to the 500mb pattern and surface temps than surface ENSO SSTs).

One heck of a -NAO today and it's going to snow yay

Going to unload into -PNA of about the same magnitude

Yeah, how do we create good upper air dynamics for thunderstorms?

It looks like no El Nino above +0.7 will form next year, so I would go with this as my Winter forecast for 21-22..

Kind of minimizing the potential for an El Nino a little bit (or a lot, anything greater than 0.7)...

The cold pool is actually retrograding a little bit

When I see this I think of an active severe thunderstorm season.

Warm pool still stronger though, I think well see some powerful Kelvin waves in the Spring. 

18 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Today is the 60th day in a row without hitting 60 degrees in Albuquerque. Hasn't actually topped 57 in that time frame either.

Places that have hit 60: Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Denver, Billings.

Whoa, I was expecting you to say 60 days of it hitting 60. 

love this

AAM is rotation of the globe,... it's at like 0.001. lol just kidding

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. 
 

Chuck can explain. 

You've seen my SSW post in the trash? It favors -NAO until Feb ~15-20

Not valid I think.

I don't know.. I think it's weird that the -NAO empties into -PNA honestly. 

yay.. Im excited

Hard to get anything other than -PNA in February lately. .. check this out well, 2018, 2019 and 2020 all had anomaly in same place. 

A little cold today for a -NAO, look at how it peaks in a few days... I wouldn't be surprised if the ridge underneath of it doesn't verify as amplified, or positive anomaly, as this. That's one heck of a -PNA though, just as..

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something is definitely broken 

I was saying Arctic ice melt was behind what was really happening for a few years now, since 2017-2018.