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Posts posted by StormchaserChuck!
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0z NAM is going NW
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I'm on Kelvin wave watch for the Spring.
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3 hours ago, stormtracker said:
Ravensrule will be along shortly.
Did you know that TB won the SB in TB this year?
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Just amazing for what's going on at the surface.. a legit La Nina
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50s/60s may be coming.. it might be over. It's hard to snow in March with all that -PNA potential energy from February
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NAM at 84hrs.. this is what I'm thinking
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Now, a typical rule is, we get ice storms in -EPO -WPO, but not -PNA. -PNA can sometimes ice, but it underperforms. Models have a slight +EPO and +WPO and the -PNA ridge is all the way SE off the west coast.. I'd bet against anything big.
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About 4" here in Harford Co. beautiful snow, Beautiful Winter.
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No such thing as the Euro control.. NAM is ridiculous for next 48 hours, but maybe we are setting up moisture potential for storm
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I don't like February Arctic blasts... too much southery flow at the surface underneath. We have till like Jan 31st imo.
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I wouldn't be surprised if a Weak El Nino develops in the Spring.. Nothing stronger, like Moderate or Strong though. I have an intuition for La Nina conditions/-PDO through 2021-2024... maybe not, maybe I'm just feeling the -NAO
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(I wonder if falls in the SD of random though)Probably
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Still a pretty strong La Nina signature if you ask me. It might fizzle out into the Spring.
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Love this, 3rd day of snow here. -NAO storm, dark grey clouds, light fluffy snow on the back end.
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Btw, this timeframe for -NAO is exactly at +20-25 days the 10mb Stratosphere warming, which is +verification yet again (regardless of if 500mb is - or not in the beginning).
Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
I should have known when they were showing a tanking -NAO after we already had the coming-out-of-NAO storm. It almost never works out. The NAO always goes neutral or positive.