StormchaserChuck!

I'm voting for a big melt. 

I live in Fallston, Maryland. 

I wonder if the -NAO on LR models is going to build more +PNA in actuality. Here's 348hr.

I'm on Kelvin wave watch. When the warm pool gets to 155-140W, it produces nice +PNA. 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Ok, but how would you describe the maps tho?

There is a 2-4 year atmosphere lag after Strong El Nino of La Nina conditions in the North Pacific... interesting. I'm not sure it's even true. 

lol Can't catch a break

I theorize that these are time travel points. 

15 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I recall you mentioned that it seems like this change suddenly became more prevalent after our Super Nino. This is a rather novice question, but would a strong Nina help change some of that PAC forcing? Or is that pattern just being more amplified by our current base state?

Yeah crazy man

Shades of last year in Pacific, and the last few years

It continues

I like this analog

Wild card is potential Kelvin Wave, and we'll have a completely different scenario

,it will be opposite than last year. Something to watch out for.

06z GFS ensembles are trying to build a -NAO at Days 14-15, but I think that is to counter the Polar Vortex setting up over Alaska and the Bering Straight. I have also seen this bias with the last few Stratosphere warmings in time, they build on long range models, but dampen in closer time. Despite all the data/statistics/analogs I have posted about a -NAO March, I think the 33month trend is going to rule here. 

There is potential temperature energy here that will not be filled, that will be at another time. 

I'm amazed at this 15-day period of -PNA,+EPO coming up. The AO and NAO might also skew positive I think because of the swing of what has happened lately/trend. 

Today is the start of Spring.. no going back.

I knew it standing outside today in the flurries.. today is the start of Spring. 

I guess ENSO subsurface cold pool will strengthen until March 1st. Hard to do an El Nino after that, although there is the potential for a strong relative Kelvin wave. 

^I'll bet you the warmth in N. American and Europe evens out or cancels out the cold shortly. 

Weather derivative's are pretty interesting, you can theoretically bet on temperatures in various cities.

Powerful, Nina's going to even out though. 

I'm impressed by the -PNA. The +PNA bouts this Winter that seemed anomalous, ended up evening out 1:2. Expect the same next year and the next. 

It's not a big deal... 

Man, I nailed this storm. Let that be lesson, when the Pacific is so unfavorable, it doesn't snow.. indexes rule sometimes in some setups. The coming warm up was a sign, and we don't get storms coming out of -AO, not -NAO. 

^It's weird, like centered. That's what I'm talking about with February's lately. Cold retreats from the surface pretty early. 

I can't believe we have this PNA pattern in the Pacific for the storm, but look at the -AO exiting. I wonder what February snowstorms look like.. 

Check out this coming after though (Pacific-Alaska)

Weird models.. we have a super powerful warm pattern coming up in the 6-10 day. I wouldn't be surprised if it breaches 70 one day near DC. 

My N. Atlantic SST NAO predictor for the Winter (Dec-Mar) was -0.1, that is turning out to be a great call considering we had not had a single negative NAO Winter month since 2013. 

It's not going to snow unless the indexes change. 

It's the start of a really warm period, it will be interesting to see if that forward happening blends back to the storm.

Yeah, Montana has always been cold in February lately.