Daniel Boone

Yeah, nothing to it.

Model's are only as good as they're programmed and what's ingested into them. Probably either broadbrushes your area or the Data ingested is from Station's such as Lafollette ; warmer Locations. So, the Model's reflects that for your area. That's my Guess. Same way they are here. Pennington gap and the County Airport 7 Miles SW of Jonesville are the " official" Station's. They are warmer than most of the County.

That's quite possible. A cold pool there support's the 50-50. Without that it's possible for linkage.

Yeah, interesting! Quite different from my heyday Year's of Forecasting(I'm an Antique). Makes for a tougher seasonal forecast for sure , and to some degree medium range.

First Flakes for mountains now looking likely; maybe even Valley Locations.

I suspect the area of forecast Snowfall to expand if the Pattern forecasted is realized. Looking like a good amount of moisture to work with. Great Lakes are very warm as well.

Yep. 34 here as well. 32 in Keokee in northern Lee County. 33 in Rose hill and Ewing Recorded.

Whew ! Don't want a milk Winter for sure.

May get first Flakes early November in Valley Locations.

Currently 52 degrees here after a heavy Squall line moved through about 45 minutes ago. .76" of Rain so far today. A good bit more than forecasted. Way more than the terrible HRRR had for us.

Currently 52 degrees here after a heavy Squall line moved through about 45 minutes ago. .76" of Rain so far today. A good bit more than forecasted. Way more than the terrible HRRR had for us.

Hopefully the Polar Jet will come down far enough to produce plenty Upslope.

Exactly. I don't see it being as bad as his outcome turned out. I like Don but, he's heavy into Global warming and I think he incorporates that a bit much. If Pensacola can get a record Snowstorm we can still get abundant Snowfall Winter's.

Uggh. Cold but not alot of Snow.

Don Sutherland did some meticulous Calculations Yesterday and came up with a cool Fall but a mild Winter . He details what he factored in and how he did it over in the main Forum. Hopefully we get something akin to last Winter if you like cold and at least average Snowfall. The SST'S in the west Pacific are boiling and those in the Ne Pac have cooled considerably. The SST'S around Newfoundland have warmed. So, not the right direction but, plenty of time to revert . The SST'S in the NEPAC did just that in 2013-14.