Daniel Boone

'95-96 was weak La Nina. 2010-11 was a moderate to strong La Nina. Both featured alot of cold and Snow. I've not looked into how the Walker or Hadley Cells were those Winters. don't know if you can get Archived Data irt that. Maybe you can see what you can find Jax. I will say, if they were active in the way the upcoming is predicted, I wonder if the strong Blocking those Winters countered that. ?. Law of physics would say strong upstream Blocking would alter the effects of the Cells thereby keeping the Jet from being forced North . Of course, there would be a battle between the two as they'd war against each other. So, depending on how strong the EWB'S are and how persistent I suppose on whether they would force the Block out or not. Of course , as of now strong Blocking doesn't exist on ensembles. They actually look as if what blocking there is is eroding but, that could be them seeing the Cells forcing doing that. The Other fly in the Ointment is what Carvers mentioned about the MJO. How will that affect the Cells typical response.?.

Another thing to note about '95-96 is there was a warmup after the aforementioned Snowstorm in December. It ended right before Christmas and Rain changed to Snow here in the early morning hours of Christmas and we had an inch of Snow at 7 A.M. One other thing about that Winter; it did have an extreme Arctic Outbreak. February 3rd and 4th Heavy Snow fell dropping 10-24 inches in the mid and upper great Valley. the front passed and the Temp fell to -21 feb 5 with the high of -4 in Pennington gap.

That One was a SE traveling System that bottomed in the mid South and intensified and moved ENE South of us . I measured 7 inches in Pennington gap. Roanoke got 10". It was evening of the 9th and morning of 10th.

I remember it having systems travel from the Pac NW down through the Plains into the Tn Valley along the Jet. Some would drop to the mid South and form a Miller A from a Miller B( transfer). Those were the Ones that would cut up the Coast from NC on up(Noreaster). Several low riding B and Clipper Systems as well. I was thinking awhile ago after reading Johns post and pondered that really all we need is this Pattern with the Trough dipped further South a 25-100 Miles. Then we'd be in the area getting the Snow that Area's that distance up are getting. So close. A stronger block would do it. Taller western Ridge would.

I don't blame you. At this point, how can you believe it after what happened Friday and also today's milder outcome. To add insult to injury, several inches expected at Virginia Beach and down the NE Nc Beach area.

51 degree's here ! I almost pulled the trigger yesterday saying I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 50. The Great Valley warm nose, lol.

Yep. Snow on snow up that way.

HRRR showing similar outcome with this System coming up Tomorrow night as the past one. Rich get Richer if is right as showing this Evening. Hopefully it's wrong. If not, more cold rain with a little sleet and snow mixed in for area's south of Wise and Lebanon ending as Snow. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

If right, the rich get richer. Sad.

The GFS may score here as the same thing as far as mosisture is concerned may do as last System. It kinda looks like an anafrontal wave deal or Lee Low Snow Print.

Yes, that's another reason that makes sense. I was actually wondering earlier today if the wind shifted to the NW that even without a frontal passage our Temp would fall due to upstream snowcover.

I guess I still go by 1980 to 2010 Averages more. The Avgerages have really jumped over the year's and the thing is that's not always caught is the last sevral Year's that jump is added on in the NWS Station Avgs. The Avg high for Pennington gap this Date was 47 Hi 27 low in 2010 I think. So, average is running below that for the balance but not extreme( however, I think that has gone up some now). KTRI now says the Average high there is like 51 or so Low 31 I think. That's several degrees milder than used to be for there. So, with "Today's" Averages we're running a good bit below. the point basically being the difference in comparison to our west and East. There is a Spike through here of not of below as the aforementioned. I think John actually hit it with the western Ridge Height as far as the point being addressed. I see your reasoning though as the cold we have got has been constant. Of which is a rarity, especially this early.

So far the truly cold air hasn't been making it into the Great Valley this Month. You can see how it fell down west and East of the Great Valley in the Month T Plot. It's in the 40's Today. That falls within Average for here. This Mornings Low was above Average due to being socked in with Fog and low St Deck. Yesterday was near Normal as far as daily goes. The point being, although much of the East( MW, Oh Valley, NE and MA have been very cold, our Area and Southeastward hasn't in comparison. Qustion to debate is, the Reason why?. I'd like to see what everyone can come up with and get a common denominator . Mine is no strong Hp press down western slopes of Apps. Then there has been the residual heat Sourh of us left over from the Cuban HP that weakened and moved on SEward that pulls up toward the Jet and mixes. If Modeling is correct showing the strong HP coming down from Canada into the Plains we will be in the Icebox as well as we all know.

Congratulations !

NBM