Daniel Boone

Good work and analysis man ! I'm right with you on your thoughts regarding the Cold Shots as well buddy.

Yep..I.m at 1.6" . Some Locations in Western Lee County in the Valley are at 4 inches.

I always hated to see a Trough dig deep into the SW. Without blocking that generally pumps the SER. With blocking you can get overunning or Waves eject Eastward that pay dividend's. However, with a -EPO you can sometimes get cold highs drop down east of that SW trough and get cold but, usually dry. The above Depictions Carver posted are showing good progression. Somewhat of a SER can be good for our Area as Carvers noted. Waves ride along that Boundary. Just my Antique 2 Cents worth.

Models still have it progressing to Ph. 7 by the 1st and crawling through 7.

Makes sense imo. The solid wall to wall Winter's did basically what you described. High latitude blocking helped mitigate what trips the MJO made through the warm Phases. In some cases, it would go either low amp through or COD and come back into cold Phases( SST'S were supportive of that then). My guess is as your's, in that the MJO will make it back to warm Phases at some point as the SST'S are still supportive for that to occur at decent Amp. As you noted, the -QBO should help. Also, NATL SST'S have became more favorable in supporting a -NAO.

That's the Average December Snowfall 40 Year's ago.

Yep, and call it white Friday

Couple duds in there. '72-73 and 08-09. 2005-06 slightly above Temperatures with slightly below average Snowfall. Very Mild January.. 85-86 was great. below average Temps, above average Snowfall. 64-65 was average with above Snowfall. 96-97 avg Temps and Slightly below Snowfall. 08-09 slightly above Temperatures, below average Snowfall. 80-81 below Average Temps, above Snowfall. 09-10 great. Below average Temps above average Snowfall. John, you probably have more detailed information in these.

Yeah, was just looking at those. If right, may be a fun Month.

But, if you throw upstream blocking in there you would get the Central US Cold undercut into the East. Probably equivalent to low Ph 7 without it imo Larry. Maybe not into the SE east of the Apps and South of NC.

Interesting development in the North Atlantic. SST'S becoming favorable for a -NAO this Winter. https://x.com/Aigle_e/status/1989420648234668098?s=20

Interesting SST development in the North Atlantic : https://x.com/Aigle_e/status/1989420648234668098?s=20 Another factor increasing - NAO Odds this Winter.

Foliage all gone here. Was a crappy one here as well.. wasn't alot of Color.

Yeah, he's mainly referencing NC Southward. I think we get in on some of the early December Action west of NC and Spine of Apps.

Looks great for cold and snow Lover's. If this were to be realized it would be the coldest Winter probably since 2013-14 .