Daniel Boone

I agree with you completely . If we go back to many great Winter's, many of them featured that occurrence. '95-96 comes to mind as that happened on more than one Occasion. Not saying we're in for a "great" Winter , although, the possibility does exist. I think if that Mild shot is short and ends abruptly the Odds are pretty good imo.

The European Models bring the Goods Friday and Saturday to NETN, SWVA and SEKY . General 2-6".

Could be the Strat thing playing havoc on Model's or the forecasted strong Pac Jet or both. The MJO should be in a cold phase then. Blocking should be in place so ., just don't know. Extreme heat( for even there this late) is lurking in the deep SE and over the Gulf and portions of Mexico so, wouldn't take alot to soar Temps if flow shoots from that way. In fact , some of the milder air aloft now is a result of that being sifted north toward the Jet. That huge area of extreme warmth originally spread from Mexico and Texas a couple Weeks ago along with that now Cuban HP that was forecasted last week to be a huge SER with near record warmth here. I'm in hopes that HP and area of heat gets shunted eastward toward the Sargasso Sea as it may cause us issues throughout the Winter if not. I've seen it before. The Aleutians Trough is a bit too west as well as Holston noted. Place that a bit east and shift the pattern that much East and we'd be situated about where Western KY is within the Trough now. Those are a couple things that would help us if they shift. A bit of an apendage ; the Cuban HP can occasionally be of benefit, particularly with Overrunning Events so, it's not always bad. It just doesn't happen often. We'd still be much better overall if it were shunted out as mentioned above.

You should be fine there.

You could be getting in on some of the milder air aloft. I noticed in my area temps above 2000 ft are in the upper 30's while in the lower Valley it's lower 30's. Too bad the Jet is to our NW. We're getting that milder air pulled up from the South aloft. Very warm in the deep South East.

Yeah, there's some talk of it being a complete SSWE. PV is weak so if there is one it may very split the PV this time.

Yeah, if blocking is decent during that Time we should fair well. If the Pac Jet doesn't blast the PNW like some guidance is showing some of that really cold air should finally get to us. The MJO may help alter that Jets direction more than what the GFS in particular is showing and thereby a colder outcome. As it stands, Could be quite cold and snowy or cool and damp . We shall see.

I get why you're thinking maybe a relaxation after the 15th. However, I think the MJO in cold Phase along with possible upstream blocking should curtail any significant warmup mid late month. If anything, may get a deeper dive of the PJ and Cold. The PAC Jet may try to mitigate the Effects of the above mentioned as it may dampen the -EPO but, the MJO and -NAO should still keep troughing in the East. Just my Antique 2 Cents worth. Of course, if the -NAO is not still there or robust then a milder outcome.

Agree. Weak PV from Strat probably part of it. Ryan Maue thinks a full Split is still coming. Also, if the blocking upstream Models are suggesting coming up is right then there will probably be a deeper dive of the Cold into the SE than being shown.

Yeah. Had more warmer than avg nights. Less Frost than usual as well as was October. On that note, what a Frost this Morning !!! Looked alike a light Snowfall.

My Average was a couple degrees colder than KTRI. The high on the 10th here was 33. Some area's remained below freezing that Day. The Month was near Normal. I wonder how John's Location faired.?.

That's exactly what's needed. I was in hopes we'd have better odds for the 50-50 this year as SST'S are somewhat more favorable around Newfoundland. Hopefully we get one setup before long. Maybe if this next round of blocking modeled comes to fruition we'll have one set up.

More Ninoish.

Hopefully we get an east trend. Just 75-100 Miles as a Crow flies.

Not surprising. Evaporational cooling. Model's are not good with it.