Daniel Boone

Happy Anniversary !

Depends on strength of each really. Location of NAO as well.

Probably the increased likelihood of a Strong Block and bridge over along with possibly MJO becoming favorable would be my wag what's tipping them. It'll take a bit before my confidence builds. Main thing the next few days imo is to watch the progression of the NAO. Then that of the AR.

That's what we talked about and what it's going to take to spoil the warm pattern early. Still not sold it'll happen though. If it doesn't, that massive nina HP and freaking GOA low are Staples for awhile.

That Jan 6-7th Storm was a Monster ! Remember it well. Recorded 13" at the Radio Station amongst the buildings and Streets in Pennington gap. 16" outskirts of Town. 18 to 20" in Western Lee County in Rose Hill area(there was a deformation of sorts that ran across there ). Some Highest Elevations up to 24". As we all know, that went on to be a Major Blizzard in the mid Atlantic with over 40" in area's !

That link you posted Holston was December 96 and January 97. It's 95 and 96 we were looking for.

I didn't think we had to deal with an AR that Winter. Blocking was a big thing that Winter though.

Nina HP was well south then . By Christmas a +PNA with the HP centered over the NW and LP over Aleutians. Trough in East. We should further that Winter in increments in Time and see what evolution was.

I used to get mine to post the map now just does Link. Anyway, look what a change by Christmas then.

This is this day in 1995 Plymouth State Weather Center Compare to Christmas then : Plymouth State Weather Center I know it just shows Site link but it goes directly to Map.

Yeah, la nina augmented you might say. Nina actually strengthened a little recently after a steady weakening. Should see a rather fast weakening from here on. I think i'll go back and look at some NPAC Charts from 95-96 and see how or if the AR was prominent then.

Yeah. If that AH will scoot over Alaska and bridge to the -NAO . A retrogression west or SW of the GOA Low would then setup a pretty much solid cold Pattern. 12Z GFS illustrates what you mentioned ; Model Chaos. Rather tricky Pattern for Models to decipher.

Yeah, Larry is a great Asset to American Weather in pretty much all Aspects. Great guy with a Ton of Research Data and Information along with Meteorological Knowledge and Skill.

Been thinking same thing. Looks pretty obvious actually, imo. As with the pattern we've been in, regardless if there might be a difference in evolution or trough axis they'll possibly show a similar outcome in snow forecast and show those area's that's had plenty (Southern Va/Northern NC) getting snow and us rain or just more snow than us. I'm not saying that won't be what happens, particularly with a CAD wedge pattern. That stuff goes into the Model's (Models ingest System) and since they've not been going long as you alluded to, it makes sense.

Yep. Still got the usual crowd in Enso forum going complete eventual mild takeover for the east into January. Don S. even. He may change his thoughts with the latest data on the NAO coming in stronger and backing west. They were sold on it being east based. Larry's having to set them straight with latest charts. I won't gloat though as, it's not set in Stone yet.