Daniel Boone
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Yeah, they have got to the point they change the Local Averages every other Year or so anymore. The long term Averages(Climate Norms) used to be 30 Year Periods. I think technically that still exists. On back to the extended Outlook cool down. Forecast's are adjusting to Model Guidance and lowering Temps. If Data continues with the big cool down you'll see the Forecast's lower temps the closer we get .
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Their extended outlook has nothing dramatic for this time of Year. Cooler but nothing extreme. However, Model Data is showing cooler but nothing of Tecord proportions. NWS is adjusting to Climatology , so their extended Outlook will be warmer than Guidance.
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We'll name it Whiteland if we aquire it, lol.
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Yeah, good point Jeff, Atlantic or Gulf TC activity can either help or hurt by reinforcement of a heat Ridge. Timing of propagation.
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Yeah, it was weak Nina. Check out the N.Atlantic SST'S that Winter. Evident Nfd cold pool. Thanks for the Data dig John !
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As you can see, I went ahead and found it. Plymouth only goes back to 2000. Anyway, here's the " evidence". Looks Nina to me. Although, close enough tri.month average one could classify as neutral I suppose with marginal spread.
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Yeah, I always considered it a weak Nina . From what I recollect, SST'S showed that. Somebody go dig up archived plots from then. I just don't feel up to it. I used to have those at disposal many years ago. I'm sure Plymouth State still has those. A side note; I think that Winter would of had more Nina Characteristics albeit weak, had it not been for repeated textbook strong blocking.
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I have one of those. It's a good Station overall. Accurate T, RH, Rain, Solar. 14 second updates not bad for budget Station. Biggest con is Windspeed runs low the higher the Winds, at least with mine. Customer support is good. I also have a Logia 7-1 . It has been very accurate overall. It was right with my Davis irt accuracy. T Sensor failing after 3 year's.
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Yeah, that PDO is bad as of now. Last year at this juncture it was low but not this low and it managed to rise rapidly in November. That helped irt last Winter without a doubt.
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Good ole JB, LOL
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Yeah. The SST/Atmosphere correlation should become more Set as we get into Fall and Winter. If we get the tripole SST config in the NATL , along with the favourable QBO we should be in business as far as upstream blocking. We need to do a run on west based nina/ east based nina combo composites ,if it can be done. If we can find the Year's with that Configuration , should be able to. Maybe Chuck over in the MA can. He's good at that stuff.
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That makes sense given the QBO as well. As of now, there's an obvious disconnect with the SST'S and Atmosphere. So, the NATL SST'S may not factor in too much if that were to continue into Winter. On to the reason of such a disconnect, that probably has something to do with Solar/ tropospheric imo. Mountain Torque could be at play some but, not to the disconnect Magnitude there is I don't think. Jeff may have a better or a more detailed explanation on the Subject.
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Yeah, guidance as well as local NWS Forecasts have constantly been too high . Not just to the tune of a couple degrees but, 5-7.
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Really been short changed irt Rainfall here at my home east of Jonesville. Under 4 inches for the Month so far. Average is about 5.25". Just continues to develop all around us . It's as if we have a mini dome around here.
