Daniel Boone

Yep. That Aleutian HP is where we need the LP to be. Need that HP over Alaska and need that LP near the GOA to move to Aleutians. As is, that Pac Jet's going to roar between the Goa Low and the Epac and West Coast Ridge. if it comes in strong enough it'll flood the US with Pacific Air and downslope off the Rockies spreading warmth. If it were to blast in further North it could potentially flood western and central Canada scouring the cold out. Kentucky Post was right on with that post about needing that Ridge to link with the Alaskan HP.

Yeah, been watching a live Cam near Petersburg where there's around 4 inches in areas of grass and bushes and it's hammering big Flakes.

South or Southwest. SE Virginia is getting hammered now. Been watching Live Cam from Colonial Heights, near Petersburg. 4 inches and pouring big Flakes. Truly rare for there this early.

Yeah. I had noticed that vort in the GOA last Week and thought that typically hurts us but, was weak at the time and looked like was going to be shunted eastward and then maybe travel down the Jet SEward. Some Model's are indicating a gradual +TNH developing as the Aleutians Alaskan Ridge moves over Alaska and expands over the Arctic Domain. Sooner the better for us if you want the real Cold and much higher Snow Probability.

Didn't last long and ended as a mix. It was pretty heavy for a few minutes. 0.05" from it melted in gauge in about 20 minutes.

Snowing lt to moderate here and 35 degree's.

'95-96 was weak La Nina. 2010-11 was a moderate to strong La Nina. Both featured alot of cold and Snow. I've not looked into how the Walker or Hadley Cells were those Winters. don't know if you can get Archived Data irt that. Maybe you can see what you can find Jax. I will say, if they were active in the way the upcoming is predicted, I wonder if the strong Blocking those Winters countered that. ?. Law of physics would say strong upstream Blocking would alter the effects of the Cells thereby keeping the Jet from being forced North . Of course, there would be a battle between the two as they'd war against each other. So, depending on how strong the EWB'S are and how persistent I suppose on whether they would force the Block out or not. Of course , as of now strong Blocking doesn't exist on ensembles. They actually look as if what blocking there is is eroding but, that could be them seeing the Cells forcing doing that. The Other fly in the Ointment is what Carvers mentioned about the MJO. How will that affect the Cells typical response.?.

Another thing to note about '95-96 is there was a warmup after the aforementioned Snowstorm in December. It ended right before Christmas and Rain changed to Snow here in the early morning hours of Christmas and we had an inch of Snow at 7 A.M. One other thing about that Winter; it did have an extreme Arctic Outbreak. February 3rd and 4th Heavy Snow fell dropping 10-24 inches in the mid and upper great Valley. the front passed and the Temp fell to -21 feb 5 with the high of -4 in Pennington gap.

That One was a SE traveling System that bottomed in the mid South and intensified and moved ENE South of us . I measured 7 inches in Pennington gap. Roanoke got 10". It was evening of the 9th and morning of 10th.

I remember it having systems travel from the Pac NW down through the Plains into the Tn Valley along the Jet. Some would drop to the mid South and form a Miller A from a Miller B( transfer). Those were the Ones that would cut up the Coast from NC on up(Noreaster). Several low riding B and Clipper Systems as well. I was thinking awhile ago after reading Johns post and pondered that really all we need is this Pattern with the Trough dipped further South a 25-100 Miles. Then we'd be in the area getting the Snow that Area's that distance up are getting. So close. A stronger block would do it. Taller western Ridge would.

I don't blame you. At this point, how can you believe it after what happened Friday and also today's milder outcome. To add insult to injury, several inches expected at Virginia Beach and down the NE Nc Beach area.

51 degree's here ! I almost pulled the trigger yesterday saying I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 50. The Great Valley warm nose, lol.

Yep. Snow on snow up that way.

HRRR showing similar outcome with this System coming up Tomorrow night as the past one. Rich get Richer if is right as showing this Evening. Hopefully it's wrong. If not, more cold rain with a little sleet and snow mixed in for area's south of Wise and Lebanon ending as Snow. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

If right, the rich get richer. Sad.