Daniel Boone

Pretty Standard La Nina looks like.

That does happen sometimes if Blocks strengthen. Retrogression. There's been quite a number of Occasions of that transpiring. Thing is, it doesn't always of which is a no brainer. Depends on forcing and resistance.

Yeah, he's pretty concerned.

Good post man !

Yw !

Happy Anniversary !

Depends on strength of each really. Location of NAO as well.

Probably the increased likelihood of a Strong Block and bridge over along with possibly MJO becoming favorable would be my wag what's tipping them. It'll take a bit before my confidence builds. Main thing the next few days imo is to watch the progression of the NAO. Then that of the AR.

That's what we talked about and what it's going to take to spoil the warm pattern early. Still not sold it'll happen though. If it doesn't, that massive nina HP and freaking GOA low are Staples for awhile.

That Jan 6-7th Storm was a Monster ! Remember it well. Recorded 13" at the Radio Station amongst the buildings and Streets in Pennington gap. 16" outskirts of Town. 18 to 20" in Western Lee County in Rose Hill area(there was a deformation of sorts that ran across there ). Some Highest Elevations up to 24". As we all know, that went on to be a Major Blizzard in the mid Atlantic with over 40" in area's !

That link you posted Holston was December 96 and January 97. It's 95 and 96 we were looking for.

I didn't think we had to deal with an AR that Winter. Blocking was a big thing that Winter though.

Nina HP was well south then . By Christmas a +PNA with the HP centered over the NW and LP over Aleutians. Trough in East. We should further that Winter in increments in Time and see what evolution was.

I used to get mine to post the map now just does Link. Anyway, look what a change by Christmas then.

This is this day in 1995 Plymouth State Weather Center Compare to Christmas then : Plymouth State Weather Center I know it just shows Site link but it goes directly to Map.