Daniel Boone

Agree completely Carvers. Hopefully the Ec Weeklies are just going on lagging the MJO in warm Phases. As you alluded to, sometimes an SSW can foul up a good pattern for us so, may be that too. Models tend to go wonky before one too so, may be that too.

MJO projected to crawl through P7 first week of December. Looks like Model's picking up in that.

You beat me to it Jax. Lol. Yeah, looks minor but does appear to be one from what I've gathered. Either way, should keep the PV in a weak State for awhile. As you said, we'll know by next week for sure.

Think it was 17-18. Terrible waist of cold.

Yeah, hopefully they are overemphasizing it. Could also be the SSW starting to affect the Models. If so, some back and forth and wonky solutions to come as we know.

Yep. MJO taking control of the Bus. Blocking may mitigate the Heat in the East by squashing the SER. Hopefully that western trough doesn't dig too deep and help the SER hook up with the -NAO. Models are not showing that but after seeing that happen the last several Years it makes it a possibility.

Probably factoring the MJO. Crawling through 6 and into 7 by early December. Transition in 7 makes sense if the MJO is ruling the Roost. Continued blocking has become a bit of a Question for December now as some Data has backed off some.

I didn't say I expected it to get back to '60's Era. I said the recent averages would increase. Obviously overal warming has taken place, whether Cyclical , environmental or otherwise. I definitely don't believe it's all Greenhouse gasses. I'm not a practicing Met now but, still do some research and still look back on my working days and yes there's been a gradual warming but, we're still getting Snow way South. So, a banner Year in the MA is still very possible.

We've gotta get old fashioned sustained blocking back. If so, those averages will increase.

How many of these years had sustained legit Blocking ?

Great Post man ! I made mention of the possibility Cozgrove could be right about the back being cold but wrong about the front and the possibility exists of a solid cold Winter after you posted what his thoughts were recently. He and I and his Buddy Dave Dierks used chat quite a bit and he is without a doubt an expert in Lr Forecasting Dave's more medium range. Imo, this one has the Chance of being a 95-96 type weak Nina or even a 10-11 . The latter was strong moderate but had strong Blocking. Blocking was the big deal for both. '95-96 was cold all three Months but did have short lived mild periods. '10-11 Cold Dec and January, mild February.

Many times in the past the Model's underestimated blocking and had to adjust. If that's the case here, any warmth and Ridging in the East may be short lived or mitigated. Your Pre Thanksgiving thoughts may very well be Correct.

I think it's right with the Thanksgiving or thereabouts Threat of Snow and Cold. The weak PV is going to help enforce blocking. The MJO in Warm ph is probably starting to exert some influence as it will probably help cause the Trough to spill west and fight against the Block prior to the MJO advancement into colder phases. May even try to spin up a SER that may try to connect to said Block. It is still possible to get a shot or two of cooler air before the End of Month Real Deal as that block still may force heights South in the East somewhat.

Saw where 1981-82 and 2000-01 are being batted around alot due to similar SST Profiles and PV Strength. 81-82 was a great Winter here. Several Arctic blasts and above avg Snow. 2000-01 was cold but rather dry with below average Snowfall. 1968-69 Analog is also on the Table. Great cold and snowy Winter.

Snowfall reports from Lee County: Rose Hill 4 inches . Ewing 3". Jonesville 1.6". Pennington gap 1". No Reports from Keokee in Northern Lee. Less than a half inch in Dryden in Northeastern Lee.