Itstrainingtime

It's also drier. A bad combo if we want snow.

Come on up! We're a hospitable bunch in the Garden Spot. And, we just opened up a new Cartoon Network hotel.

Totally agree. And coming off last week's little gem in a godawful pattern we'd be in a great spot going forward. I don't read DT either.

Yep...it means something for snow amounts, but it means everything for the duration of frozen.

This...is so VERY true. I argued this point vehemently in here last year... Having said that, this is an impressive CAD setup with a big boy high to funnel in the cold, at least at the surface. But like you I'm extremely hesitant to get too wrapped up in some of the snow amounts being spit out right now. My guess is that in the coming days we'll see the snow maps start to back off. (and to some extent they already have) To be perfectly clear - I DO think this will be a legit winter storm with significant amounts of frozen precipitation here in the Suskie Valley. I also believe that something on the order of 2" -4" before a changeover is more likely than some of the 6"+ amounts we've seen on some of the maps. One thing I don't like for those of us in the southern tier is that the heaviest axis of precip keeps moving north on the models. As you said, we need good rates to overcome the warming.

It's been feast or famine out west...Mammoth Mountain in the Sierra had nearly 700" last winter, so far for this January they've had an inch.

That was the storm that CTP had metro Harrisburg in their 8"-10" zone the morning of the storm, and they ended up with 3.3" I believe. I got 2" before a quick transition to ice.

Temperature continues to slowly climb...now sitting at 66.4 with a dewpoint of 58. With the dew continuing to rise combined with the temperature it's not a stretch to say it's a night typical of early June. Remarkable!

AC is cranking...65 outside, 66 inside.

I was telling my wife this morning that tonight would be a snow lover's nightmare scenario triple play...high temps, high dews and rain. Never forget January 96 when I lost 2' of snow cover in about 8 hours one night. I'm glad my snow is already gone so I don't have to go through the agony tonight.

If it was sunny and 35 today I wouldn't be here...but I am, and others are, because it's going to be a +30 degree departure from normal today. And that is worth discussing.

Actually...now that you brought this up, you argued with me that "there was no way we would reach 60" I went back and looked.

I remember watching the radar on a Saturday afternoon and following along on the boards when out of nowhere a few posters from nowhere close to here started posting about the ominous conditions in our area. Sure enough, the tornado warnings started coming quickly...

Was it 2 years ago in February we hit 78 and were under tornado warnings?

Looking at visible satellite it doesn't look like much in the way of sun today. Maybe 65-66 is a safer call.

My daughter walked out the door wearing a jacket to go to work earlier. She came right back in and yelled that it's spring! I grumbled.

62.8 here and rising. I don't know my friend...we have a chance at 70.

61 with a fresh SW breeze at 9:45am. Rain is hours away...how warm do we get?

Speaking of unwatchable, you must be referring to the Big 12. We are...Penn State! Hopefully in the coming weeks we'll all be able to say... We are...buried!

I really need to get up there...more to the point, I need @daxx to find a reason to take me instead of his wife. I would give anything to watch it snow 5"/hour and get buried up to my waist... "the met from Millersville" is fully on board with a major pattern change beginning Jan. 18th with "snow likely between 1/18 and 1/24."

Some of the analog years to the pattern highlighted by @pasnownut "tellies"...1994, 2014 has a guy like me salivating...snow followed by a crap ton of ice to encase it in. My favorite storms. Let's do this! '94 I had continuous snow cover for over 2 freaking months!

That is some funny stuff right there!... And true... I've informed my wife that she's going to be a weather widow once again by later next week. It's coming...

Metros areas not so well (temp issues) but at least the N&W Baltimore burbs did well...3"-6" across parts of Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick counties for example. Actually, I think @psuhoffman had over 5" yesterday and a couple more inches from squalls this morning. He posted a video that is insane!

Some really great pics in here guys...feeds my snow hunger while I'm at work. Hopefully there's more to come in about 10ish days or so.

In fairness, the NAM was the only model that painted 6" totals across areas to your west. That is indeed what we got...and in some areas a little more. My experience over a whole lot of years tells me that the NAM can be useful for identifying where the heaviest precip will fall and also the amount. It absolutely nailed the blizzard of '16 out this way with it's prolific amounts. The NAM was steadfast that the south central part of PA was going to get up to 3'...and it was right. No other model depicted the crazy amounts that ended up verifying. One thing the NAM is awful on is the expanse of the precip shield...you NEVER want to be on or near the fringe. I believe that your area was on the eastern fringe of the NAM's shield yesterday.