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Itstrainingtime

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Everything posted by Itstrainingtime

  1. Itstrainingtime
    There's a LOT of time left. That was my point last night - too early to say it's going to snow, too early to say it's not. I'm still not super confident about Monday.
  2. Itstrainingtime
    For years, the Euro and Ukie were usually in sync. Not so much recently. Today, the 12z Ukie looks very much like the Euro above.
  3. Itstrainingtime
    12Z Euro: No commentary, just a snapshot -
  4. Itstrainingtime
    LOL. I only did that because I was anticipating your response in advance.
  5. Itstrainingtime
    I was waiting for something like that. So, I present this...
  6. Itstrainingtime
    Sort of...but areas around Binghamton had between 40-50" of snow, so we sort of shared the wealth with our neighbors up north.
  7. Itstrainingtime
    I assume you're talking the early week storm? GFS is a whiff south for the storm later in the week. (though that came north and is still a viable threat) It's still equally possible that southern PA sees a lot of snow next week or little to nothing. (Monday could be a little too north = Thursday could end up south) Edit: Shouldn't have said equal chances. Monday looks like at least some snow is likely at this point.
  8. Itstrainingtime
    Thank you for that. Appreciate your thoughts.
  9. Itstrainingtime
    Yep, that's what I've been saying.
  10. Itstrainingtime
    I am too. I said nothing negative. I added a dose of realism.
  11. Itstrainingtime
    Thanks - you explained it far better than my poor attempt.
  12. Itstrainingtime
    I think you're misinterpreting what is being said. Climate is NOT the same as it was years ago. You often quote PSU Hoffman, he's been saying that over and over again. That doesn't mean it doesn't snow, or we don't have above normal years. We've gotten above normal years because we've had a lot of very large snowstorms in the past 20 years. Winters have been lacking multiple snow events, sustained cold, and to some extent, frigid weather. He said winter is changing. He's right...
  13. Itstrainingtime
    True, but where he lives receives more snow annually than I do. I wasn't arguing or trying to start anything. I'm saying that we can't say for certain that it's going to snow. To do so could end up making one look foolish. There are absolutely ways for Monday to fail. That goes for Lake George NY and Smith Mountain Lake in VA and every point in between.
  14. Itstrainingtime
    Other than the December storm, we've had little snow for the past couple of years. Sorry, I don't agree with you on this. At this juncture, there are still ways for us to miss this.
  15. Itstrainingtime
    I'm not - this storm is all over the place. I'm prepared for zero snow, a pile of snow, or anything in between the next 10-14 days. As PSU Hoffman said earlier this evening "the Monday system has become complicated, and we don't do complicated well." I think those are prudent words to heed.
  16. Itstrainingtime
    We've seen a few look like this in the past a week out that we ended up getting buried under:
  17. Itstrainingtime
    The GFS has been literally over the east coast with the upcoming storm. It inspires zero confidence...I mean zero. People poop on the NAM but the GFS right now is laughable. The CMC seems to be doing a little better - maybe not Euro like, but model goalposts seem to be narrowing. The Euro hasn't been it's hallowed self lately and the CMC seems to be getting better. We'll see what happens soon enough.
  18. Itstrainingtime
    Agreed, more upside with that the first event. Though...given how things have been, I'm not looking past Monday/Tuesday and laying all my eggs on storm #2.
  19. Itstrainingtime
    Remarkable that in late January that a storm exiting off Myrtle Beach produces rain up to the I95 corridor, at least as the GFS depicts.
  20. Itstrainingtime
    I agree with you 100%. I know that every storm/setup is unique, but if I'm on or near the southern boundary of good snow, I'm essentially writing it off. I'm much more interested in being on the northern edge or even just out of it if there are several days left before the event. Some of my biggest snows were mid-Atlantic specials at range. '83 and '96 are classic examples.
  21. Itstrainingtime
    GFS looks like it's gone from amped to suppressed in one run. Congrats northern VA on this run. I think realistically were still 2-3 days away from knowing what will happen on Monday.
  22. Itstrainingtime
    That's right. Wife and I had just moved to our new house and I was excited about taking our then 3 year old out to play in the snow. That winter was void of all things winter.
  23. Itstrainingtime
    Nice snow shower here this morning! Even had a bit of accumulation in the grass - call it the 3rd trace in 4 days! Also - other than the day of the snowstorm in mid December, have we had a single day of sub-freezing highs in the LSV? I know last year was mild, but it was VERY mild offset by a few periods of somewhat colder weather. We definitely had days where it stayed in the 20s. I can't recall a winter that has been so void of wintry temperatures.
  24. Itstrainingtime
    Just came to post the same thing - 2nd trace for me in the past 3 days.
  25. Itstrainingtime
    @MAG5035 Thank you for the honest, straightforward assessment. It just isn't cold )anything noteworthy) ANYWHERE in the country. Right now, we can get by with an acceptable storm track and enough dynamics to cool thermals. As we start getting later in the season, the lack of cold is going to kill us.
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